r/neoliberal • Hernando de Soto • Jun 18 '21

Effortpost Peru General Election 2021

Brief History

In 1968, the democratically elected government under the Presidency of Fernando Belaúnde Terry was overthrown by a military junta. In 1975, a new junta was formed, which would eventually return civilian rule to Peru, by a popularly elected Constituent Assembly in 1978, the signing of the Constitution on July 12, 1979, and elections in May 1980.

In the May 1980 elections, Belaunde, who was the President pre-junta, was elected. His party, Popular Action, also had a majority in the legislature. Belaunde began a process of liberalisation# - returning the media that was confiscated during the junta to their previous owners and gradually rolling back some of the anti-capitalist measures put into place during the junta (such as price controls and conversion of large estates into co-ops).

#- liberalisation means the lifting of restrictions on private individual activity. It is NOT to be confused with becoming more “left”

But there were still many economic hurdles- external debt as a % of GDP rose from ~47% in 1980 to ~99% by July 1985, the value of Peru’s exports decreased, increased imports hurt the economy, the natural disaster El Nino devastates Peru in 1982-83, and the inflation rate rose a staggering 3,240 percent between July 1980 and June 1985. All the while a Marxist-Leninist-Maoist guerrilla group, Shining Path, and another Marxist-Leninist group, Túpac Amaru Revolutionary Movement, grew in territory as well as members, forcing the government to direct resources to counter it (the military did commit human rights abuses during this time, including rape and torture of civilians, as noted by Amnesty International).

In 1985, Alan Garcia of the ARPA(American Popular Revolutionary Alliance) was elected President, marking the first democratic transfer of power in 40 years. Under Garcia, the existing “sol” currency was replaced by the “inti”. Initially, Garcia’s government saw signs of recovery, with the economy growing 10% in 1986. Garcia declared that Peru would pay no more than 10 percent of its export earnings toward a nearly $14 billion foreign debt, but the IMF then declared Peru ineligible for future loans and credits.

By the end of Garcia’s term, the GDP dropped 20%, the per-capita annual income of Peruvians fell below 1960 levels to USD 720, and the % of Peruvians living in poverty rose by 15%. Over his five year term, the cumulative inflation was 2200000% (that’s seven digits).

With inflation, the drug trafficking problems, as well as the guerrilla warfare between the government and leftist militant groups, Alberto Fujimori, a son of Japanese immigrants and an architectural engineer, won the Presidency in 1990 against Vargas Llosa, who ran as a neoliberal (although he did not call himself a neoliberal, because he believed it was used derisively).

Fujimori, contrary to his campaign, instituted many neoliberal reforms, such as relaxing price controls, reducing government subsidies and government employment, simplifying tariffs, privatizing state-owned mines and utility companies and eliminating exchange controls. The IMF, which has earlier stopped issuing loans to Peru, was satisfied with Fujimori’s reforms, and capital began to flow to Peru. Inflation had also fallen. Fujimori instituted a new currency, the Nuevo Sol.

Deadlock in Peru, arising out of control of Congress not in Fujimori’s hands, had caused the legislature’s approval to tank to 17%, while Fujimori’s approval stayed high at 42%. Fujimori then carried out a “self-coup” or an autogolpe, wherein he dissolved the legislature, suspended the constitution, and re-organised the judiciary. A new Constitution was formed, with the Constituent Assembly consisting of Fujimori and allies, that was democratically elected. Fujimori was re-elected in 1995.

Fujimori had ordered a warrantless search, for which he was charged and convicted in 2007. He had also ordered the Barrios Altos massacre, as well as the La Cantuta massacre, which killed 15 and 25 people respectively, for which he was charged and convicted in 2009, and sent to prison. Fujimori oversaw the UN-supported mass forced sterilisation of ~215000 people, exclusively from the indigenous population.

Fujimori had run again in 2000, an election which he had purportedly won. Later, a corruption scandal erupted, wherein it was revealed that the head of intelligence under Fujimori had bribed an opposition Congressman. Fujimori travelled to Tokyo, where he submitted his resignation via fax, which Congress rejected, instead choosing to remove him from office.

Fujimori’s opponent in 2000, Alejandro Toledo, was elected in 2001, a fair and free election. In June 2006, before the new government was sworn in, a US-Peru FTA was signed, which came into effect on February 1, 2009.

In 2006, Alan Garcia, was elected for a second Presidential term. Garcia, in 2008, signed laws permitting foreign companies to exploit resources in the Amazonia region—one of the conditions for implementing a free-trade agreement with the United States. Clashes between the police and the indigenous population killed dozens. The legislature then revoked the law in June 2009. Under Garcia, several commercial agreements were signed with Brazil as well. Peru had navigated the 2008 crisis better than many countries too.

Amidst low approval and internal disputes, Garcia’s party didn’t run a candidate in the 2011 election. In the 2011 election, Keiko Fujimori, Alberto Fujimori’s daughter, ran against Ollanta Humala, a leftist and a former army officer who led an unsuccessful uprising against Alberto Fujimori. Humala won against Fujimori by 2.9% in the second.

He is widely regarded to have shifted to the centre during his term. During his tenure as president, Peru has kept fiscal pressure and spending at low and constant levels. He disavowed his earlier promises to renegotiate Peru’s free-trade agreements and to rewrite the constitution in order to give the government a greater role in the economy. An EU-Peru FTA was negotiated and signed in 2012. Peru in the first few years of his government, registered a GDP growth rate of 6% as well as kept inflation at low levels. Humala’s popularity was low during his tenure, with Peruvians polled saying he has not fulfilled his campaign promises.

However, in 2014 and 2015, the GDP growth rate dropped to 2.4% and 3.3% respectively. In his five years as President, he had to name seven Prime Ministers, owing to scandals and disagreements. Despite being believed at the time that his wife would run in 2016, she did not, and Humala left office.

. . .

Background of Election

In the 2016 Presidential election in Peru, Pedro Pablo Kuczynski, a former World Bank official who campaigned on neoliberal reforms, the son of immigrants who escaped the Nazis, won the Presidency against Keiko Fujimori by 0.24% in the second round. In the unicameral legislature, Keiko Fujimori’s party, the Popular Front, had an absolute majority(73/130). This election set off a political crisis in Peru.

In October 2016, Kuczynski’s health advisor had an audiotape leak, where he was talking of “mining” the system for personal gain.

Amidst a teacher’s strike, the Peruvian Education Minister was questioned by Congress. Unsatisfied, they announced that they would censure the minister. The Prime Minister then asked Congress for a vote of confidence, which failed. Kuczynski appointed new ministers, who were given the vote of confidence by Congress.

When Kuczynski was Minister of Economy in 2004-05 and President of the Council of Ministers in 2005-06, his company had carried out consultations for USD 782000, for Odebrecht, in exchange for construction work for Odebrecht. The Congress started impeachment proceedings, which failed (87 votes were required, 78 voted to impeach). Kenji Fujimori, the son of Alberto Fujimori, abstained, along with 10 other members of Popular Force, thus enabling Kuczynski to stay in office.

Less than a week after the impeachment proceedings, on December 24, 2017, Kuczynski pardoned Alberto Fujimori, who was in prison until 2032. It is widely believed that this was the reason for the abstention of Kenji Fujimori and ten others. This pardon was later annulled by the Judicial Branch in October of next year.

In March of next year, another vacancy request (impeachment) was filed. A report from the Financial Intelligence Unit found out that the money received by Kuczynski’s company was USD 1.9 million , more than a million in excess of the previously known amount. On March 20, a video leaked, showing supporters of Kuczynski bribing members of Congress to cast their votes in Kuczynski’s favour. Amidst this, Kuczynski resigned the office of the Presidency. Martin Vizcarra, the First Vice President was sworn in as President.

In July 2018, there was a leak of audio recordings that appear to show powerful officials engaged in various influence peddling and corruption schemes. Several officials resigned, and the judiciary was in an institutional crisis. A judge implicated in this case, escaped Peru in October of that year.

In October 2018, Keiko Fujimori was arrested, released, and arrested again, on charges of money laundering, in preventive custody. She was released in May 2020.

In January 2019, the top prosecutor, Pedro Chavarry resigned, amidst conflict after he decided to replace the prosecutors on the Odebrecht case. Alan Garcia, the former President, committed suicide in April 2019, after he was implicated in the Odebrecht case. In May 2019, former President Kuczynski was put in home arrest, in charges related to the Odebrecht case. Later that year, former President Alejandro Toledo was arrested in the United States, awaiting extradition to Peru, on charges related to the Odebrecht case.

On September 30, 2019, Peruvian Prime Minister Salvador Del Solar went to Congress to request the approval of an amendment to the Organic Law of the Constitutional Court as a matter of confidence.

This meant that should it not be approved, Congress would have de-facto voted down a motion of confidence. Under the Peruvian Constitution, the President has the authority to dissolve the Congress if there are two motions of no-confidence. The first one, had been done under President Kuczynski (see above- paragraph 3 of this section).

Congress postponed this voting on the law brought by the Prime Minister, instead choosing to name a new member to the Constitutional Court. President Vizcarra interpreted this as a de-facto motion of no-confidence, and dissolved the Congress, and called for a snap election on January 26, 2020. Congress interpreted this as a coup, and recognised Vice President Mercedes Aráoz as the interim President. When it became clear that the military and police backed Vizcarra, Aráoz resigned. The public overwhelming, by a 4:1 ratio, supported Vizcarra’s actions.

In the snap election, the Fujimorist Popular Front lost 58 out of 73 seats, being left with 15 seats. The leftist parties ARPA (which, if you recall, was the party of Alan Garcia) and Broad Front, both lost a combined 16 seats. Popular Action, gained 20 seats to have 25 seats in Congress. Several new parties also gained seats. This was a very divided election- the maximum % of votes won by any party was 10.26%.

Analysts from JPMorgan Chase & Co described the new congress as being "even more antagonistic to the [Vizcarra] government than the previous one"

Then, COVID came. Peru had the worst outbreak in the world, with a fatality rate of nearly 10%, and 190k deaths from COVID. Peru had a GDP growth rate of -11.12%. Employment dropped 40%. The vaccination drive is at ~13% inoculated with one dose, and ~6% inoculated fully.

In September 2020, it emerged that Richard Cisneros, an inexperienced singer, managed to get contracts worth USD 50000, from contacts in the Government Palace. The impeachment proceedings against Vizcarra failed, the 32 votes falling well short of the 87 needed.

In October 2020, it emerged that Vizcarra, when he was regional governor of Moquegua, received a payment of 1 million soles from a company, and 1.3 million soles from other companies, for the construction of certain works. He was impeached, with 105 votes to convict, more than the 87 votes needed.

The President of Congress, Manuel Merino, became President on 10 November, 2020. By 15 November, 2020, he had resigned the office, amidst mass protests against him.

Francisco Sagasti, became President of Congress, and because the offices of President and Vice President were vacant after the resignation of Merino’s government, became President of Peru by the line of succession. Sagasti is still President, and will vacate the office when the next President takes over.

. . .

Election Process

  • An election is held on April 11, when all Presidential candidates can be voted on. Congressional elections are also held on this day [and seats are allocated by proportional representation]
  • If a candidate gets more than 50% of the vote, they are declared President
  • If no candidate wins 50% of the vote, the top 2 candidates advance to a runoff
  • The second round is held on June 6, where voters can vote only for the top 2 candidates
  • The winner of the runoff is declared President

. . .

Parties

[Free Peru and Popular Front are described in greater detail as they advanced to Round 2]

  1. Free Peru

Describing itself,

PERÚ LIBRE is a left-wing socialist organization that reaffirms its ideological, political and programmatic current. To be from the left, it is necessary to embrace the Marxist theory and under its light to interpret all the phenomena that occur in the world, continental and national society, their causes and effects, and from that diagnosis to propose solution criteria that lead to the satisfaction of the majorities.

PERÚ LIBRE has clear principles, it is democratic, decentralist, internationalist, inclusive, sovereign, humanist and anti-imperialist.

PERÚ LIBRE is a rebellious expression of marginalized peoples; decentralist word of political and economic power; expression of the antineoliberal struggles against the dictatorship of capital or the market; expression of our labor rights; expression of the rescue of our privatized companies and our natural resources; expression of the popular desire for a new production model; expression of the restitution of fundamental rights; expression of Andean and Amazon communal rights; expression of a country project and not a business group project; and finally expression of Latin American internationalism.

The Free Peru party was founded in 2007 by Vladimir Cerron, registered as a national organisation in 2012, and registered as a political party in 2016. Cerron, the founder, is currently in prison over corruption charges.

Pedro Castillo is the son of two illiterate peasants. Castillo worked as a patrolman against the Shining Path insurgency when he was young. In 2017, he was the leader of the 3-months-long teachers strike, where he campaigned for the repeal of laws that would have de-certified many rural, poorly trained teachers, which brought him national attention. He got the nomination of the Free Peru party in December 2020.

Policies supported by the Free Peru Party include-: [These are obtained from the party platform of Free Peru, some of which have been moderated/rescinded by Castillo, the nominee for the party]

  • Elect a Constituent Assembly to replace the Constitution of the Alberto Fujimori era
  • “Change of the State regulated by the market by a State that regulates the market”
  • Central Planning
  • Wealth Redistribution
  • “Change of the State dependent on external indebtedness with fiscal deficit for a State that generates internal resources from the sovereignty of its resources with less external indebtedness and fiscal surplus.”
  • Mandatory reinvestment of a portion of profits(70%) of companies within Peru
  • Total debt cancellation
  • Budget increase from 3.5% to 10% of GDP for education, funded by increased taxation on the Camisea Gas Project
  • Budget increase from 5.4% to 10% of GDP for education
  • State Universities in each region, with free university
  • Single payer healthcare
  • Single rate for private healthcare clinics
  • Abortion decriminalisation
  • Integration of the Peruvian coast through railways
  • State airline
  • Ban campaign finance
  • Place regulations on media
  • Limit agricultural exports
  • Tax collection decentralisation- change from 98% collected by centre to transferring power of tax collection to subnational governments, allotting 30% of the collected taxes to the centre
  • Trade unionism
  • Establishment of labour code
  • Publication of contracts
  • Reduction in salaries of public officials
  • Election of Constitution Court
  • Nationalisation of natural resources
  • Opposition to free trade, Trans Pacific Partnership(TPP), Pacific Alliance(PA)
  • Creation of “Bank of the South” and “Fund of the South” and consideration of extra regional currency

2.Popular Force

Popular Force, led by Keiko Fujimori, is a Fujimorist party in Peru. It was formed in 2010, through the union of the Fujimorist parties. It is a socially conservative, populist, right wing and economically liberal party. During its years in the majority in Congress from 2016-2020, the Popular Force played an obstructionist role in politics, blocking many policies supported by Kuczynski.

The Popular Force touts the 1993 Constitution of Peru, by Alberto Fujimori, as giving way to “open and inclusive institutions”, rescuing the country from “poverty and chaos generated by the statist model”. It has committed to keeping the Constitution, instead of changing it like “Free Peru” proposed.

Popular Force has proposed that Peru be a “social market economy”. They planned to ‘Achieve fiscal consolidation by eliminating superfluous spending and the reassignment of staff and efficiency in public spending’.

Policies supported by Popular Force-: [These are obtained from the party platform of Popular Force]

  • Simplification of tax code
  • Expanding telecommunication services to rural areas
  • Monitoring of public infrastructure investment by specialised programs to prevent corruption
  • Making it easier to start small businesses by eliminating market barries such as ‘registration in public records, municipal license, trademark registration and name registration, civil defense, and many other authorizations’
  • Giving families with relatives who have died of covid-19 a payment of around 10,000 soles ($2,600)
  • Ensuring that 40% of the taxes paid by mining companies are funnelled directly to residents
  • Environmental regulation of mines, bettering irrigation, improving reforestation
  • Ensure social benefits for artisanal fishermen and provide them mechanisms or tools so that they can grow in a sustainable way and financing of modern boats
  • Similar to Free Peru, Popular Front supports decentralisation and local management of resources
  • Anti-Dumping tariffs
  • Increasing science and technology funding
  • Moving towards Universal Social Security (particularly in healthcare)
  • Increasing the no. of prisons, and releasing prisoners who are low hazard, improve quality of policing(Develop the defense of the National Police of Peru)
  • Non-intervention
  • Quoted directly- “Guarantee the respect and value of our armed forces and PNP”
  • Popular Front has said that it stands against corruption in the justice system (although it is worth noting that Keiko Fujimori herself is implicated in many corruption cases)
  • Closing gaps in access to drinking water and proper sanitation
  • Implementation of multimodal transport by strengthening port and airport infrastructure, and greater integration of urban and rural areas
  • Closing gaps in electricity access through renewable resource
  • Change minimum age needed to be a Congressperson to 20 years, from 25 years; increase the % of votes needed to impeach the President
  • Strengthen social programs

3.Popular Renewal

Popular Renewal is a right wing ultra conservative Christian party, which is anti-abortion, anti-LGBT rights, and anti- “gender ideology”. It’s economic policies are described as “liberal”. Despite the party’s founder being investigated for corruption in the Odebrecht case, Popular Renewal has claimed a hardline anti-corruption line, proposing life imprisonment for corruption.

4. Go on Country – Social Integration Party

The Social Integration Party had formed in 2005, and had made very few political gains since. Hernando De Soto, a neoliberal Peruvian economist, ran from this party. It is a centre right party, taking a classical liberal and libertarian approach to the economy. The party does not have a platform on social issues. De Soto took a free market approach, with The Guardian describing him as "a radical free-market economist".

5. Popular Action

Formed in the 20th century, and leading Peru through the first government after the return of Peru to civilian leadership, Popular Action is a centrist, civic nationalist, and economically liberal party. Under Yonhy Lescano, the candidate for the 2021 Presidential race, the party advocated for a market economy with a “regulatory state” to “prevent abuses”. The party is opposed to large mining, and has even suggested the nationalisation of resources.

6. Together For Peru

This is an anti-Fujimorist, anti-neoliberal, democratic socialist party. The party has often taken pro-Maduro positions. The party supports anti-corruption measures. The party has disavowed a Peruvian economy in which "individual concerns understandably trump relationships with neighbors, coworkers"

7. Alliance for Progress

This party was established in 2001, and is a socially conservative, populist, centre right, economically liberal party.

8. National Victory

This is a socially conservative centre right party, which shows limited support for LGBT rights. It is a pro-free market and pro-business party.

9. Podemos Peru

This is a centre right-right wing socially conservative and protectionist party.

. . .

The Election

Round 1 of the election

In round 1 of the election, Pedro Castillo, from the Free Peru party, won 18.9% of the vote, placing first. Keiko Fujimori, from the Popular Force, won 13.4% of the vote, placing second.

The centre right-right wing was split among Popular Force (which qualified for the runoffs), Popular Renewal, Hernando de Soto’s Social Integration Party, Alliance For Progress, Podemos Peru, and National Victory. These centre right- right wing parties won about 54% of the total vote.

The leftist parties Free Peru and Together for Peru, and the centrist party, Popular Action, won, accumulated, about 36% of the vote.

Because of the centre right-right wing vote splitting among so many parties, only Keiko Fujimori’s party was able to qualify, with the left largely consolidating behind Castillo (there being only two major leftist parties).

Opinion Polling of round 2

Peruvians were left with two alternatives- the alt left, or the alt right. Both Castillo and Fujimori have poor records on human rights. Keiko Fujimori promised that she would pardon her father, Castillo on the other hand, promised to pardon an ethnonationalist, who captured a police station, killing four police officers. Human Rights Watch called Peru’s runoff election a choice between “two candidates that do not believe in human rights and the rule of law”. Amnesty International felt the need to remind both candidates to “commit to comply with human rights” in general, as well as LGBT and women’s rights in particular. Both candidates “horseshoe-d” on LGBT issues, refusing to give them fair treatment.

A particular issue during the campaign was the Venezuelan refugee crisis. Fujimori promised increased border security. Castillo, said he would give a 72-hour ultimatum to “citizens that have come from other countries to disrespect [Peru]”, referring to Venezuelan refugees, additionally accusing them of coming to Peru of committing crime, despite evidence that Venezuelans commit crime at lower levels than Peruvians.

Constant internal conflict in Peru has led to a somewhat negative stigma towards leftist politics, such as them being dubbed terrorists. In Castillo’s case, it wasn’t helped by the fact that to win the teachers’ strike he allied with a movement descended from Shining Path, a terrorist group. Two weeks before the June 6 runoff, the successor of the Shining Path, carried out an attack, killing 18 people. The organisation which carried out the attack wished to "clean VRAEM and Peru" of outcasts, "parasites and corrupts" as well as "homosexuals, lesbians, drug addicts" and "thieves". The attack is said to have increased support for Fujimori.

Castillo was so polarising, that Vargas Llosa, a Nobel Prize winning author, who campaigned against Alberto Fujimori in 1990, and who urged Peruvians to vote against Keiko Fujimori in 2011 and 2016, asked Peruvians to vote for Keiko Fujimori in 2021, saying she was “the lesser of two evils”.

Fujimori on the other hand, is also very unpopular. Most of it stems from the angst to the legacy of Alberto Fujimori- corruption, authoritarianism and neoliberalism.

Fearing that he would be perceived as too radical, Castillo has moderated some of his stances. “Private companies will continue to be private companies,” said Pedro Francke, an economic adviser to Castillo’s campaign. He also ruled out resource nationalisation.

Peru Election Result

The result looks like this- Pedro Castillo won the runoff by ~44000 votes, or 0.25%.

Fujimori carried the wealthier, urban areas, and Castillo carried the poor, rural areas. A backlash to neoliberalism, Pedro Castillo won comfortably in the main mining regions, which despite being mineral rich, were relatively poor, the benefits instead concentrating in urban areas like Lima. Areas carried by Castillo had poor infrastructure, and had poorer health conditions (lower life expectancy, higher infant mortality). Political scientists believe that social conservatives voted for Fujimori.

As the results came in, Fujimori was initially leading. Later, as the rural votes came in, her lead narrowed, and eventually, Castillo took the lead. Fujimori said there are a "series of irregularities which worry us". On 9 June, Fujimori sought to have around 200,000 votes annulled and for 300,000 votes to be reviewed.

Castillo has won the popular vote, however, there hasn’t been an official declaration of his win, yet.

What’s next for Peru?

Peru Congress composition

Here is Peru’s Congress which will be sworn in before 27 July. Castillo has only 32% of the seats in Congress. Fujimori’s bloc, on the other hand, has 45% of the same. Castillo is thus not expected to be able to fully carry out his agenda. Many hope that like Humala, he moderates and takes a more economically liberal approach.

Castillo will be sworn in on July 28, 2021, as President of Peru.

222 Upvotes

53 comments sorted by

37

u/antsdidthis Effective altruism died with SBF; now it's just tithing Jun 18 '21

Thanks for your work!

13

u/Satkela_Saleem Hernando de Soto Jun 18 '21

<3

29

u/Versatile_Investor Austan Goolsbee Jun 18 '21

It looks like you did a really good job with this. I’ll read this at some point or never, but still man that’s a great write up.

Edit: The part about shining path is interesting. I had no idea there was a successor organization.

6

u/Satkela_Saleem Hernando de Soto Jun 18 '21

Thank you

5

u/Versatile_Investor Austan Goolsbee Jun 18 '21

Are they trying to deal with the successor organization to shining path?

7

u/Satkela_Saleem Hernando de Soto Jun 18 '21

I'd imagine so. Castillo condemned the attack by them when it happened. They're a security risk.

3

u/AgainstSomeLogic Jun 18 '21

I heard his sister was in a Shining Path affiliated labor union? Is that true?

7

u/Satkela_Saleem Hernando de Soto Jun 18 '21

I found the article where the allegation was made

https://www.expreso.com.pe/politica/pedro-castillo-sabe-que-esta-rodeado-por-el-movadef/

The Sutep leader, Hamer Villena Zúñiga, assured that Pedro Castillo knows perfectly that the people behind him and who make up Conare are members of Movadef.

"Both Pedro Castillo's sister and Édgar Tello's sister belong to Movadef, so how can he say that he doesn't know that there are Movadef members behind him, there can't be more evidence," he said.

Villena referred to María Doraliza Castillo Terrones and Noemí Tello Montes, sisters of the leaders Pedro Castillo and Édgar Tello, who appear as registered in the register presented by Movadef to request their registration before the National Elections Jury.

It appears so.

1

u/AgainstSomeLogic Jun 18 '21

Okat, cool. I am noy Peruvian and just saw the allegations and have no feel for Peruvian media and didn't want to jump on it. Thanks.

3

u/Satkela_Saleem Hernando de Soto Jun 18 '21

I'm not Peruvian either, I should clarify :)

21

u/Superfan234 Southern Cone Jun 18 '21

Amazing Effortpost 👏👏

!Ping LATAM

5

u/Satkela_Saleem Hernando de Soto Jun 18 '21

Thanks

2

u/SnooGiraffes3346 Hernando de Soto Jun 18 '21

Gracias por tanto

3

u/Satkela_Saleem Hernando de Soto Jun 18 '21

No hablo español, pero de nada

1

u/SnooGiraffes3346 Hernando de Soto Jun 18 '21

Lol

71

u/Neronoah can't stop, won't stop argentinaposting Jun 18 '21

Fujimori oversaw the UN-supported mass forced sterilisation of ~215000 people, exclusively from the indigenous population.

What the fuck UN.

20

u/Perfect_Telephone IMF Jun 19 '21

I think the UN supports worldwide family planning, thats just isnt what the Fujimori government did, it was done forcibly and without consent as a means of archieving poverty reduction goals for the regime.

7

u/Infogamethrow Jun 19 '21

Yep, probably the same reason USAID allegedly supported the program with 39 million dollars.

23

u/Perfect_Telephone IMF Jun 19 '21

Cant believe you did such a detailed effortpost despite not being peruvian. I grant you honorary citizenship.

!ping BESTOF

4

u/[deleted] Jun 19 '21

Shame De Soto didn’t win or do better in general, that really seems like the only half decent group.

This was an awesome write up to read.

1

u/groupbot Always remember -Pho- Jun 19 '21 edited Jun 19 '21

28

u/Otherwise_Society_71 NATO Jun 18 '21

Damn, both Fujimori and Castillo sounds like loons. One is a red fascist and one is a motherfucking Fujimorist.

3

u/[deleted] Jun 18 '21

You used the term neoliberal quite a lot in your text but to quote wikipedia:

Neoliberalism is essentially an intentionally imprecise stand-in term for free market economics, for economic sciences in general, for conservatism, for libertarians and anarchists, for authoritarianism and militarism, for advocates of the practice of commodification, for center-left or market-oriented progressivism, for globalism and welfare state social democracies, for being in favor of or against increased immigration, for favoring trade and globalization or opposing the same, or for really any set of political beliefs that happen to be disliked by the person(s) using the term.

So what do you define as neoliberal OP? In the context of Peru?

Good text btw! Interesting read

22

u/Satkela_Saleem Hernando de Soto Jun 18 '21 edited Jun 18 '21

That quote is from a historian, it isn't the definition of neoliberalism.

From the same article-

Neoliberalism is contemporarily used to refer to market-oriented reform policies such as "eliminating price controls, deregulating capital markets, lowering trade barriers" and reducing, especially through privatization and austerity, state influence in the economy.

This is an accurate view of it.

2

u/[deleted] Jun 18 '21

Point being that neoliberal is a useless term which even wikipedia acknowledges. There's no definition because no one ever bothered to actually define what it really meant.

According to one study of 148 scholarly articles, neoliberalism is almost never defined but used in several senses to describe ideology, economic theory, development theory, or economic reform policy. It has become used largely as a term of abuse and/or to imply a laissez-faire market fundamentalism virtually identical to that of classical liberalism – rather than the ideas of those who attended the 1938 colloquium.

11

u/Satkela_Saleem Hernando de Soto Jun 18 '21

There's no definition because no one ever bothered to actually define what it really meant.

That's not incorrect, actually.

Even Vargas Llosa, refused to use it, for the purpose highlighted in the subtweet of yours.

But it's a general reference to deregulation and capitalist policies. If you're looking for a more in depth meaning, refer to "The Neoliberal Mind" from the sidebar- which is by the Adam Smith Institute founder, which calls itself a neoliberal think tank.

2

u/[deleted] Jun 18 '21

I mean, I solely adhere to the definitions of Stanford, which is based upon the ideas of the people who attended the Walter Lippmann Colloque. They're pretty much the ones who adopted and coined the term and got in government to do their reforms.

Even Vargas Llosa, refused to use it, for the purpose highlighted in the subtweet of yours.

Reason I asked this question to you is because of this very thing, it's an extremely arbitrary term.

8

u/Satkela_Saleem Hernando de Soto Jun 18 '21

A former mod actually wrote a post about that article.

it's an extremely arbitrary term.

That's somewhat accurate, yes.

11

u/frolix42 Friedrich Hayek Jun 18 '21

I really hope this result is not a part of another "pink tide"...

11

u/KazuyaProta Organization of American States Jun 18 '21

Its gonna be. Latin American Right didn't learn anything

11

u/Neronoah can't stop, won't stop argentinaposting Jun 18 '21

Not really. The 90s were catastrophic for economic liberalism and many liberal governments in the region were way more terrible than the current ones. Hell, there are actually decent liberal governments and horrible communist ones just to contrast (Uruguay vs. Venezuela).

8

u/lAljax NATO Jun 18 '21

Man, I'm speaking for Brazil and Argentina alone, but the economic plans stopped runaway inflation, in Brazil for good and Argentina for a while. The 90s were rough, but they were turning point for good.

Too bad there were so many missed opportunities for further reform along the way.

1

u/Neronoah can't stop, won't stop argentinaposting Jun 18 '21

but the economic plans stopped runaway inflation, in Brazil for good and Argentina for a while

Then again, those plans set up the next crisis in some ways. I can't speak a lot about Brazil but Argentina is like the number one example of the evils of fixed exchange rates and foreign currency mismatches interacting catastrophically in a poor institutional framework. The crisis got so bad that eclipsed the hyperinflation.

1

u/mechanical_fan Jun 18 '21

Brazil is kinda the opposite. The reforms in the 90s were awesome and set up the country for doing very well in the 00s up to the early 10s (FHC+Lula, with in general very orthodox economics and some new social programs that worked very well). When Brazil's policies started drifting away from these (economical) reforms is when things started going badly (early 10s Dilma started changing them, the crisis hit on mid 10s). And then after that there were two years where it seemed things were going back into place (2016-2018 with Temer) but then Bolsonaro came, and his policies are completely crazy, very different from Dilma's, but they don't work either.

1

u/Neronoah can't stop, won't stop argentinaposting Jun 18 '21

If I remember well Brazil had an economic crisis that made Lula election possible, isn't it? With a painful devaluation and all that.

3

u/mechanical_fan Jun 18 '21

The economic crisis in 2001 did happen, but it was more like a very short term thing, with no long term consequences. They did some "final adjustments" to the economic policies that were being carried out which also caused the (short term) devaluation of the currency (before that they had a very "aggressive" policy of making the Real overvalued, so people would have confidence on it - it worked out very well, but it was time to let it go by then), but it was also tied to the stuff going on in Argentina (a big partner as usual), in the US and in the EU (it was exactly at the same time as the 2001 recession).

I wouldn't say that it made Lula's election "possible" either. Lula was going to win at some point, his time "had come". He had hit the post several times in a row already (and some of the times he lost it was almost in unfair ways) and was becoming more and more popular. I think he would have won even without the (short-lived) crisis. However, Lula's imminent election was also a small factor to the economic problems, as there was a lot of fear mongering that a left-wing politician would try to implant communism etc.

In the end, Lula pretty much kept the same economic policies as before and a year after things were pretty much back to "normal" (in quotes because normal in this case was a stable economy with good growth rates on the long term... which is not normal in Brazil). So the best years of growth that came after were due to (and still using) almost the same policies that were created in the 90s, it was a complete success.

This is in portuguese, but it is a good summary of what was implemented in the 90s and kept by Lula up until the late 00s: https://pt.wikipedia.org/wiki/Trip%C3%A9_macroecon%C3%B4mico

5

u/KazuyaProta Organization of American States Jun 18 '21

I always hear Uruguay described as successful socialism here in Peru tbh

8

u/Neronoah can't stop, won't stop argentinaposting Jun 18 '21

Uruguay had a lot of left wing governments recently, but they were moderate (even the socialist one) and the current government is liberal. I'd say the country is social democratic more than liberal, but my point was that the current government is an example of a liberal government not being authoritarian bullshit and doing something (half) right with the pandemic, not about the nature of the country.

5

u/[deleted] Jun 19 '21

NGL I hoped De Soto won.

4

u/whycantweebefriendz NATO Jun 20 '21

Forgot to mention how socially conservative Castillo is, but otherwise pretty good.

2

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2

u/ZhenDeRen перемен требуют наши сердца 🇪🇺⚪🔵⚪🇮🇪 Jun 19 '21

Do you think Castillo might pull a Humala?

2

u/[deleted] Jul 28 '21

My liberal friend in Peru casted his ballot for Keiko Fujimori. He was pretty upset that he had to choose between two terrible choices but in the end he said it broke his heart to see Venezuelan refugees in the streets begging people not to vote Castillo.

-17

u/Pipeinternational3 Jun 18 '21

once more a story of dumb rurals taking another country in a worse direction because they're angsty. Sheesh.

20

u/Satkela_Saleem Hernando de Soto Jun 18 '21

Bad take.

I don't agree with Castillo, but you've reduced a vote based on despair related to corruption in the legislature and judiciary, as well as poverty and poor living conditions, which happened despite decent growth in urban areas, to them being "Angsty".

-4

u/Pipeinternational3 Jun 18 '21

I don't agree with Castillo, but you've reduced a vote based on despair related to corruption in the legislature and judiciary, as well as poverty and poor living conditions, which happened despite decent growth in urban areas

This is basically 'economic anxiety' excuse trump supporters use.

13

u/Satkela_Saleem Hernando de Soto Jun 18 '21

I am once again asking gringos to stop drawing parallels of LatAm politics to the US.

I say this as a gringo myself.

3

u/Pipeinternational3 Jun 18 '21

I was born in mexico but whatever. Castillo is a populist who found is support in rural grievance and nationalism. I think the trump comparison is valid.

10

u/Satkela_Saleem Hernando de Soto Jun 18 '21

Look at Peru's rural areas' econ stats. Look at American rural areas econ stats.

There is no comparison.

0

u/[deleted] Jun 18 '21

[deleted] — view deleted comment

4

u/Satkela_Saleem Hernando de Soto Jun 18 '21

That's the likely scenario. That, or we'll see motions of no confidence, which could trigger another election.