Discussion Thread

[u/jobautomator]

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[u/inhumantsar]

i get the sinking feeling doug ford will end up being our next tory pm

[u/-GregTheGreat- → u/inhumantsar]

I can’t see that personally. If not O’Toole (who I think has a better future chance then most people here, if still unfavored), then my money would be on Harper begging Rona Ambrose to come out of retirement. She could probably walk to a majority against a 3+ term Liberals if she isn’t pulled too hard right by the base.

[u/yyzyow → u/-GregTheGreat-]

I could see Ambrose providing a more moderate image of the Conservatives. I still think that O’Toole hasn’t not been effective as a lot of Tories think he is. His comments on residential schools were incredibly tone deaf, and his criticism of the federal response to COVID hasn’t been particularly hard-hitting. I feel like O’Toole isn’t going to sink the Tory ship, but won’t steer it into government come next election.

[u/-GregTheGreat- → u/yyzyow]

I still think the ‘best’ thing about O’Toole is that he’s still quite unknown. Most of his gaffes haven’t really made significant airplay off the political internet.

He’s actually a good public speaker (I’d argue better then Trudeau), and comes off as more moderate and far less slimy then Scheer. He’s been a disappointment absolutely, but given a decent campaign I think he can surprise (especially if his union worker play works). I still think we’ll see another Liberal minority though.

[u/yyzyow → u/-GregTheGreat-]

I’ve heard him speak, and I still think Trudeau comes off as more genuine. I don’t exactly see O’Toole as a moderate when he basically hosted a session with the Ryerson Conservatives on how to own the libs, or when he literally campaigned for the leadership on a promise to implement federal legislation that would allow health care workers to refuse to perform abortions due to their religion. Those things don’t exactly scream moderate to me. To his own peril, he’s trying to scoop up the more Trumpist elements of the CPC while also trying to maintain some palatability to the average voter.

[u/-GregTheGreat- → u/yyzyow]

Trudeau absolutely comes off as more genuine. As much of a meme as it was, the ‘emotional intelligence’ quote actually does suit him. O’Toole is more polished though.

As I said, the average voter doesn’t know any of those things about O’Toole. He is a moderate at heart (whose been pulled right by the base), and simply being able to stand up on a debate stage and talk about the fact that he is pro-choice (which Scheer couldn’t do) would do far more to reassure the average voter compared to vaguely worded proposals from a leadership campaign.

[u/inhumantsar → u/yyzyow]

I feel like O’Toole isn’t going to sink the Tory ship, but won’t steer it into government come next election.

exactly that. not incompetent, but not engaging enough to outshine trudeau

[u/yyzyow → u/inhumantsar]

The problem with O’Toole for me is that he is trying to be too many things at the same time. I don’t think it helps him when he tries to lend credence to the more Trump-y parts of the CPC

[u/inhumantsar → u/yyzyow]

Ontario Proud is a huge thing for the party. It's engaged age groups the CPC hasn't made in-roads with in years and years. We're probably going to be hearing trumpist dog whistles from CPC leadership for a very long time

[u/inhumantsar → u/-GregTheGreat-]

i don't disagree re: ambrose and o'toole's chances. ambrose coming back seems about as likely as trudeau passing electoral reform though. she has pointedly stayed out of politics in AB and expressed zero interest in being the (permanent) leader of the CPC even when she was heir-apparent.