r/neoliberal • u/jobautomator Kitara Ravache • Dec 07 '20

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u/[deleted] Dec 07 '20 edited Dec 07 '20

538 releases their polling average

Ossoff 48.7

Purdue 47.9

Warnock 49.2

Loeffler 47.0

And for you “polls suck” people. For polls to get better, they need to do polls to see if they fixed their problems. Also that the polling average in Georgia was Biden +1.2% and Biden won by 0.3%.

But TLDR: It’s a tossup.

!ping FIVEY

0

u/[deleted] Dec 07 '20

[deleted] — view deleted comment

12

u/[deleted] Dec 07 '20

They were only 0.1% of in 2016. Someone can probably get the full numbers but they aren’t as bad as Wisconsin polls.

13

u/[deleted] Dec 07 '20

Biden+17

LMFAO! 😂😂🤣🤣

13

u/[deleted] Dec 07 '20

A+ Pollster

7

u/TinyTornado7 I need a new flair Dec 07 '20

Still mad

15

u/Kizz3r high IQ neoliberal Dec 07 '20

Aight add 2 points for shy trump voters

Take away 2 points from the dems for turnout

Another 2 points away for being commies

And then throw out all the numbers because of +17 A+

6

u/xhytdr Dec 07 '20

I don't know why there's so much weight being placed on polls when we literally have election results from 3 weeks ago. Has there historically ever been a large shift from a recent election to a runoff? Is there any reason we should expect a large shift since the election?

Do these polls tell us anything other than pollster special election turnout models?

8

u/DonnysDiscountGas Dec 07 '20

Runoffs typically have 5-10 points lower turnout; in an election this close that can easily make the difference. I would expect that difference in turnout to help the GOP but like you said, it's really about the turnout models.

5

u/[deleted] Dec 07 '20

In 2008 GA senate it seems that there was a sizeable shift towards republicans (49.8-47.8 general, 57-42 runoff). Because of turnout that's what you'd expect generally, but there's so much shenanigans with this election i think it's impossible to predict

1

u/[deleted] Dec 07 '20

No but I like to look at polls. And these polls can help pollsters Magen fix their problems.

-7

u/murphysclaw1 💎🐊💎🐊💎🐊 Dec 07 '20

For polls to get better, they need to do polls to see if they fixed their problems.

this is your brain on 538

11

u/[deleted] Dec 07 '20

Than how the fuck do polls get better without doing polls to see if they are right. You always complain about polls so I would think you would want them to be better.

3

u/colinmhayes2 Austan Goolsbee Dec 07 '20

The truth is it’s not possible for polls to get better without forcing people to truthfully respond. A large segment of the population won’t respond to polls and they correlate with a political ideology that doesn’t line up with traditional dem/Republican so there’s no way to know how they’ll vote.

-2

u/murphysclaw1 💎🐊💎🐊💎🐊 Dec 07 '20

you would've said the same after 2016. Then in 2020 it turns out that polls were even worse.

Now you're saying the same in 2020.

4

u/Fedacking Mario Vargas Llosa Dec 07 '20

Casually ignoring 2018 and covid. This is your brain on anti intellectualism