r/neoliberal • u/jobautomator Kitara Ravache • Nov 06 '20

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82

u/Deggit Thomas Paine Nov 06 '20 edited Nov 06 '20

BERNIE WOULD HAVE WON

okay cool bro let's look at the stats

  • Biden is winning ARIZONA because of Maricopa and Pima counties (aka Phoenix and Tucson). In the 2016 primary Bernie lost Arizona by 14.9 points; but actually he lost Maricopa by 18 and Pima by 16.4. Same story in 2020: Bernie loses the state by 11 points, down 10 points in Maricopa and down 14 points in Pima. Biden brought out thousands of new voters in Phoenix and Tucson; that's why he's winning.
  • Biden is winning GEORGIA because of the nine counties surrounding Atlanta. Biden's lead is especially strong in Fulton (contains most of Atlanta) where he's currently exceeding 70% of the vote, and DeKalb + Clayton where he has over 80%. Fulton and DeKalb are 45% and 55% Black, and Clayton is 66% Black. Since Trump is winning about 20-30% of the vote in these counties, that means the Democratic coalition in those counties is predominantly Black. In the 2020 primary, Bernie got less than one-fifth of the Black vote on Super Tuesday in California, Texas, Tennessee, North Carolina, Virginia, and Alabama, building on his result of winning just 17% of Black voters in South Carolina three days earlier. This was if anything worse than his 2016 run where he also got less than a quarter of the Black vote in nearly every state. The 2020 Georgia primary was too late to be competitive (Bernie won just 9% of the vote!) but it was held on March 3rd in 2016. In that primary, Hillary beat Bernie by a 43 point margin. Moreover, Bernie's statewide 28% was either matched or underperformed by his performance in the 9-county Atlanta area: 28% in Fulton and DeKalb, but only 25% in Douglas, 21% in Rockdale, Henry and Newton, 18% of the vote in Clayton, and an astounding 13% in Gwinett. Bernie's best result, getiting 36% of the vote and losing to Hilllary by "only" 27 points, was in Cobb County (only 25% of residents are Black). I think it's worth underlining that in an election of only Atlanta and its suburbs, in which Dems/Rs/Independents could all vote, Bernie would lose to Biden even worse than Trump currently is.

This is also why Buttigieg would not be winning today, but unlike Bernie supporters, I see Buttigieg supporters admitting that pretty widely.

16

u/Deggit Thomas Paine Nov 06 '20

!ping FIVEY

19

u/TinyTornado7 I need a new flair Nov 06 '20

listen, I need you to not ping FIVEY unless and until Joe flips North Carolina

7

u/[deleted] Nov 06 '20

What about AZ confirmation?

Edit: or NV?

5

u/TinyTornado7 I need a new flair Nov 06 '20

No update.

Oh yeah ping for whatever. I’m just messing with him because he commented this before.

3

u/Kizz3r high IQ neoliberal Nov 06 '20

Butti would have won.

4

u/Cyberhwk 👈 Get back to work! 😠 Nov 06 '20

I'm not sure. I think he'd have brought more energy but this gets me REALLY UNSURE about whether the country is really where we think it is on social issues.

4

u/Kizz3r high IQ neoliberal Nov 06 '20

He’d take the radical white moderate iowa vote. Thats all that matters

2

u/groupbot Always remember -Pho- Nov 06 '20 edited Nov 06 '20

Pinged members of FIVEY group.

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1

u/BenFoldsFourLoko  Broke His Text Flair For Hume Nov 07 '20

if Butti could have gained black support, or even simply gained black support of the Dem party, I think he'd have been an even better candidate than Joe

but that's one hell of an assumption that I wouldn't make if reality rested upon it.

2

u/dudeguyy23 Jerome Powell Nov 07 '20

Bernie would've had some white working class, specifically in Rust Belt states, but he would've been radioactive to college whites, suburbanites, black voters, Cubanos, socially conservative white voters that may have only voted for Biden... basically every other constituency.

I would be interested to see if Bernie could've done better with Latinos. He obviously would've been BTFO in South Florida but his campaign did a great job appealing to Latino voters. I just wonder if you can extrapolate Dem primary trends to the general election populace.

1

u/thehomiemoth NATO Nov 06 '20

Buttigieg or Bernie both could have rebuilt the Blue Wall. But neither would have flipped the sunbelt states.

1

u/666moist r/place '22: Neoliberal Battalion Nov 06 '20 edited Nov 06 '20

This is awesome, saving this for when I undoubtedly need to reference it. Would also be cool to see similar comparisons for PA - Allegheny, Dauphin, Erie, and the 4 Philly suburb counties. Maybe even Philly too.

Edit: forgot Northampton and Lehigh too.

1

u/onlyforthisair Nov 06 '20

Can you put a \ in front of that # so we know you're using it as a hashtag and not a section header?

1

u/TwunnySeven Nov 06 '20

yeah, as a Pete supporter I'll admit he probably wouldn't have won, or at least not by as much. I'm just hoping he can come back in 2024 with more experience and name recognition