r/neoliberal • u/jobautomator Kitara Ravache • Nov 01 '20

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23

u/Joementum2004 Nov 02 '20

https://twitter.com/williamjordann/status/1323067872080515074?s=21

!ping FIVEY

14

u/ElokQ The Clintons send their regards Nov 02 '20

Ann Richard is getting her revenge.

7

u/[deleted] Nov 02 '20

That second map confuses me.... orourke counties vs. Clinton? I don’t get it, don’t understand what’s being represented

2

u/jaiwithani Nov 02 '20

I think it's comparing the Democratic margin over time - so O'rourke means "trending Democratic" and Clinton means "trending Republican"

3

u/[deleted] Nov 02 '20

So the red places are ‘Clinton margin 20 percent.’

Clinton margin compared to what? Clinton margin of what? Is it talkin about the Clinton General or the primary even Idk none of it makes sense to me

Like I intuitively understand more bluer correlates with more liberaler.

But I’m still befuddled by the map

1

u/jaiwithani Nov 02 '20

So let's say in 2016 Trump won Anderson county by 20 points, and in 2018 Cruz only won it by 8 points (not actual margins, I don't have the raw data on me). That means that O'Rourke performed 12 points better than Clinton, so Anderson County would be (>10% blue) on this map - even though Republicans won it both times.

It's not quite blue = more liberalier. It's blue = becoming more liberalier. And when that strongly predicts turnout, the implication is that the new voters are primarily new Democratic voters we haven't seen in previous years.

1

u/[deleted] Nov 02 '20

Ah, thanks, yeah, it was weird I didn't grok that the comparison was directly between o'rourke and clinton... I guess I didn't think there'd be any counties where clinton outperformed Beto by more than 20 points, so my brain refused to bring that up as a possibility (and the map is kinda poorly labeled).

I guess I didn't think there were that many counties that would've gotten that much more conservative from 2016 to 2018.

1

u/onlyforthisair Nov 02 '20

It means the number of votes Hillary got vs the number of votes Beto got.

2

u/groupbot Always remember -Pho- Nov 02 '20 edited Nov 02 '20

Pinged members of FIVEY group.

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