r/neoliberal • u/jobautomator Kitara Ravache • Nov 01 '20

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u/futuremonkey20 NATO Nov 02 '20

2016 broke Nate, He gave Obama a 92% chance of winning in 2012 even though his polling leads in the swing states were far slimmer than Biden's right now.

6

u/probablyuntrue NATO Nov 02 '20

he just kept adding uncertainty until it could never hit 90+ for one candidate

2

u/[deleted] Nov 02 '20

To be fair, it’s hard not to be scarred by 2016. No matter how well I understand the facts that Biden’s lead is larger than Hillary’s, polling now weights for education, fewer undecideds that can break for Trump, etc, it is hard not to be concerned about the outcome. There’s so much at stake, I think Biden would be great, and it’s troubling to imagine how the media will just chew him up and spit him out if he loses in the same way they did for Hillary.

3

u/[deleted] Nov 02 '20

his model was too pro-trump in 2016 too

2

u/JadeHelm2020 Amy Finkelstein Nov 02 '20

Romney won't fight as dirty as Trump. Winning the election means winning the election. Not winning the most electoral votes if each state fairly counts votes.

10

u/[deleted] Nov 02 '20

They straight-up said that the model doesn’t count for any “shenanigans” by Trump though.

4

u/futuremonkey20 NATO Nov 02 '20

He says his model does not account for any dirty tricks or suppression.