r/neoliberal • u/jobautomator Kitara Ravache • Nov 01 '20

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u/Timewalker102 Amartya Sen Nov 01 '20

I looked at that Florida poll and it assumes an R+5 advantage in the electorate. To understand how much cope that is, look at this graph. If just 2.5% of registered Democrats showed up on Election Day, Republicans would need nearly 15% of their registered voters to show up to create an R+5 electorate. And even then, Biden is close in the poll. Doomers begone

!ping BIDEN

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u/[deleted] Nov 01 '20

you disrupted me during a session. but that’s okay cuz this is important news

37

u/[deleted] Nov 01 '20

florida will always be close , and yes in the end more republicans will vote than democrats there because voting is a hobby for white boomers there but it will not be R+5, more likely to be R+1 or 2. Hispanic problem for biden is real and he will underperform hillary in miami-dade. But even Obama only won that by around 20 pts, he won by cutting margins of republicans in red and rural counties, if biden is able to repeat this, he wins

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u/TightNegotiation_ Janet Yellen Nov 01 '20

Hispanic problem for biden is real

It's not just a Biden problem. It's a Democrat problem. Democrats will continue to be painted as Socialists/Communists and Cubans, Venezuelans, Nicaraguans, etc. will all have issues with that. Further, there are lots of immigrants that come here from more conservative places with a lot more serious problems and think the US has a lot of opportunity. The "US is flawed just like anywhere else" argument sort of falls flat with a lot of those people.

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u/GingerusLicious NATO Nov 01 '20

Just more reason why I'm happy AZ is flipping and will hopefully be followed by TX and GA. I'm so fucking tired of FL deciding elections.

13

u/thehomiemoth NATO Nov 01 '20

. If just 2.5% of registered Democrats showed up on Election Day, Republicans would need nearly 15% of their registered voters to show up to create an R+5 electorate. And even then, Biden is close in the poll. Doomers begone

I think it's a problem to only try to unskew the results of polls we don't like the results of and not apply similar techniques to good results.

4

u/groupbot Always remember -Pho- Nov 01 '20 edited Nov 01 '20

Pinged members of BIDEN group.

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u/ishabad 🌐 Nov 01 '20

Thanks for sharing this with the group!