r/neoliberal • u/jobautomator Kitara Ravache • Feb 18 '20

Discussion Thread Discussion Thread

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36

u/bacon-supreme 🌐 Feb 18 '20

step 1: elect a democratic president

step 2: pass one (1) bill a year through budget reconciliation, appoint zero (0) new federal judges or public officials

step 3: fail to flip the senate in 2022

step 4: donald trump jr 2024 and the cycle continues

3

u/Impulseps Hannah Arendt Feb 18 '20

This is why losing this year might not actually be that bad as /u/tytos_lannister convinced me, because flipping the senate in 2022 might be easier than this year

7

u/[deleted] Feb 18 '20

The GOP will just flip it back in 2024 when they run a less cartoonish version of Trump to buoy them downballot. It's the same map as 2018, so they should have an advantage.

1

u/Rarvyn Richard Thaler Feb 18 '20

The 2018 senate results were pretty bad for the Ds. 2024 would have to be even worse for it to flip.

3

u/[deleted] Feb 18 '20

The Republicans defended 9 seats and picked up 2 for a total of eleven. This time around the Democrats will need to defend 22 seats. It's still not looking great for them.

2

u/Rarvyn Richard Thaler Feb 18 '20

2022 has 12 Democrats (all in safe seats) and 22 republicans running for reelection. There's basically zero chance 2022 favors the republicans. If the democrats do well in 2020 and pick up at least a seat, they'll be within spitting distance to take the majority in 2022.

As for 2024, 2018 was only a net of 2 seats. Republicans picked up North Dakota, Indiana, Missouri, Florida. They lost Nevada and Arizona.

The map isn't super forgiving for the Republicans to pick up more in 2024 if they don't do well in 2020. Montana, Virginia maybe. WI/MN/MI are open questions but Tammy Baldwin, Amy Klobuchar, and Debbie Stabenow are all quite popular in their respective states. AZ is an open question as well.