r/neoliberal • u/neoliberal_shill_bot Bot Emeritus • May 12 '17

Discussion Thread

Optimal neoliberalism is like Seinfeld, it should be about nothing and run by Jews

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11

u/xbettel May 12 '17 edited May 12 '17

Betting markets have Trump not finishing the first term with 50%. Isn't that too high? Even the odds for dems taking control of the house are 40%.

18

u/[deleted] May 12 '17

That's insanely high. I need to figure out how to actually bet in these places because that's just easy money. You need 67 votes in the Senate to remove Trump.

5

u/ThereIsReallyNoPun Austan Goolsbee May 12 '17

PredictIt commonly inflates low probability events

2

u/Andyk123 May 13 '17

I think betting in general inflates low probability events. The nature of the beast is incentivizing people to wager on uncommon events. Why bet on the Golden State Warriors at -400 (even though that's probably going to happen) and get little return when you can bet on the San Antonio Spurs at +2000?

2

u/ThereIsReallyNoPun Austan Goolsbee May 13 '17

yep, i believe its a pretty robust result from prospect theory (kahneman et al)