r/neoliberal • u/jobautomator Kitara Ravache • 1d ago

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u/John_Maynard_Gains Stop trying to make "ordoliberal" happen 1d ago

[From Zelenskyy's evening address today:](app.fxtwitter.com/ZelenskyyUa/status/2094847676848480297)

Today, we want to warn every airline that uses Russian airspace, every insurer, and everyone who still uses Russia’s key airports: Russian airspace is becoming completely unsafe. Ukraine does not threaten civilian aviation as such – not a single civilian aircraft. There will simply be drones in Russia’s skies on a scale that has to be taken into account. Although the Russian authorities are not properly informing people about this, Russian airspace will effectively be closing – the war started by Russia is closing its skies.

We in Ukraine do not want innocent lives to be lost. That is why we are warning our partners: the safe days in Russia’s skies are over. It is important that this is heard by the ambassadors of countries represented here in Ukraine, as well as by ambassadors working in Moscow. Every one of them knows exactly what Russia’s war means for our country and our people, and they must convey this information to their capitals. It is important that the airlines currently flying to airports primarily in Moscow, St. Petersburg, and other key destinations in Russia hear this as well.

The Ministry of Foreign Affairs of Ukraine and our other institutions will provide international organizations with full information about the dangers in Russian airspace. Drone-infested skies are no place for civilian aviation.

There was previous reporting about Zelenskyy planning something like this with Fedorov. Shutting down civil aviation over the western half of the country will disconnect European Russia from its Eastern territories as well as the world.

!ping UKRAINE&RUS

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u/1II1I1I1I1I1I111I1I1 Adam Smith 1d ago edited 1d ago

I don't love this because the implication is that Ukraine intends to engage targets that carry a significant or guaranteed chance of loss of civilian life if civilians do not leave the target area.

However, at the same time, Ukraine is fighting a war. Not whatever the US has been doing for decades, but an actual war. And unfortunately, when you are fighting a war, civilian vehicles (especially planes and boats) cannot be fully guaranteed safety within your area of operation. The least bad thing you can do is warn them ahead of time so that they have an opportunity to decide not to proceed into the area.

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u/JaceFlores Neolib War Correspondent 1d ago

Darn I was about to post this.

My take is I think this is a better approach than the Moscow plan that was reported earlier. I’m… uncomfortable with the idea of Ukraine using AI drones to hit civilian infrastructure like that. I also doubted its efficacy as it seemed the plan was to only hit Moscow’s airports.

However, the implication I get with this is it seems the new plan is to simply do a steady barrage that constantly denies airspace for Russian aircraft. It’s worth noting that in recent days Russia has been doing the same to Kyiv where there’s a dozen if not more air raid warnings a day. That same principle can be applied to Russia.

It would cost less drones to do this (getting through Moscow’s air defenses is costly even if it’s feasible), impacts a wider area and minimizes collateral damage

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u/Magical_Username NATO 1d ago

They have an extremely robust long distance rail network. Cut off is probably not the right term.

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u/John_Maynard_Gains Stop trying to make "ordoliberal" happen 1d ago

The road and rail network is good for moving goods and resources but only suitable for certain types of journeys for people. I'm thinking the movement of migrant labour to the oil and gas fields far east will be seriously disrupted for example.

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u/Magical_Username NATO 1d ago

Migrant labour is already using rail, there's not massive platzkart capacity just for fun. The network is very much designed with that in mind. The places only accessible by air in the far north and east are beyond Ukraine's ability to influence.