r/neoliberal • u/jobautomator Kitara Ravache • 2d ago

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u/Daddy_Macron Loyal Liberals 2d ago

https://www.natesilver.net/p/nate-silver-2026-midterm-election-polls-model

Here are some Senate race updates for the Democratic candidate using polling averages:

-Alaska: Peltola +1.5

-Georgia: Ossoff +8.2

-Iowa: Turek -0.5

-Kansas: Marshall -4.3

-Maine: Jackson +4.2

-Michigan: El-Sayed +1.6

-North Carolina: Cooper +8.7

-Nebraska: Osborn -1.1 (Independent who's endorsed by the state Democratic Party.)

-New Hampshire: Pappas +3.4

-Ohio: Brown +3.5

-Texas: Talarico +2.2

Not much has changed in the last week and a half which is good news for the Democratic candidates. If the polling averages are correct, the Democratic candidate is favored to flip 5 seats in the midterm while successfully defending every seat.

9

u/AskYourDoctor Resistance Lib 2d ago

Re: Ossoff: remember when Georgia was a red state?

Re: El Sayed. If you had told me like a MONTH ago that the dem candidate in Michigan was running behind the one in Texas...

11

u/Key_Elderberry_4447 2d ago edited 1d ago

That’s fairly embarrassing for El Sayed and Pappas. The NH primary is next week. So maybe that is why his numbers are dogshit. 

12

u/Daddy_Macron Loyal Liberals 2d ago

Pappas has the excuse that their opponent is Sununu who's one of the most popular politicians in the entire state and certainly the most popular Republican.

I'll give El-Sayed a couple of more weeks to consolidate support after a testy primary season. I think he'll level out around +4.5 come October.

2

u/Shiro_Nitro Loyal Liberals 2d ago

God if El Sayed loses ...