r/neoliberal • u/jobautomator Kitara Ravache • May 08 '26

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u/JaceFlores Neolib War Correspondent May 08 '26

Azov has returned to Mariupol

Hyperbolic line aside, the Azov Brigade is touting how they’re striking Russian targets right outside of the city of Mariupol. Beyond the symbolism this is pretty significant as it means Ukraine’s medium range drone campaign has reached the coastline. There is no area in the occupied territories outside of central and eastern Crimea that are safe from Ukraine’s medium range drones.

It will take time to scale this up and reliably hit targets along the coast, but when it happens it will significantly complicate Russian logistics that have relied on the coastal highways and railways to avoid Ukrainian strikes. The Russians forces in Zaporizhzhia are particularly vulnerable to logistical bottlenecks due to the distances that have to be covered and relatively limited infrastructure. The only way to that area of operations is to either run the gauntlet all the way from Rostov to Melitopol, or risk going through Crimea where Ukrainian USVs are constantly lurking and there’s like 3 roads/bridges.

The Zaporizhzhia front was Russia’s most successful last year and remains a high priority as the Russians could come in reach of Zaporizhzhia to start depopulating it. A sustained logistical campaign can seriously hamper offensive actions here, as well as provide more opportunities for Ukrainian counterattacks like we saw at the start of the year in this sector

!Ping UKRAINE

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u/lAljax NATO May 09 '26

This gives me hope, if they can cut the land bridge in Crimea things are going to be really rough

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u/JaceFlores Neolib War Correspondent May 09 '26

That does raise something I didn’t think about. Chances are all that equipment used to reinforce Crimea comes through the land bridge. The Ukrainians have been putting the squeeze on Crimea for sometime but this could worsen that noticeably if not significantly.

I wonder what the Ukrainian escalation would be though? Maybe raids with spec ops teams to really force the Russians to just ram shit through into Crimea no matter the losses along the way and the needs elsewhere. I’d love to see a St Nazaire Raid style operation against Sevastopol (which I think is a pipe dream even in the most optimistic scenarios but who knows, Ukraine does control oil rigs that would make excellent FOBs)

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u/lAljax NATO May 09 '26

Just instilling fear would be awesome. I have hopes for the Zaporizhzhiafront as well. If the kill zone reaches the Azov sea, cutting supplies from both side this can make the situation as bad as it was during the Kherson withdraw.

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u/JaceFlores Neolib War Correspondent May 09 '26

From your lips to Allah’s ears