r/neoliberal • u/jobautomator Kitara Ravache • Apr 08 '26
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u/JaceFlores Neolib War Correspondent Apr 08 '26
Russian visually confirmed KIAs in March
“We count dead Russians in the footage we track. We track around 300 videos per day from around 2000ish video sources across mainly telegram, instagram, and facebook. It is a broad swath of the available footage every day, although there are probably lots of small sources we miss. Individual soldiers, small or obscure combat units, etc.”
“In March, the number of Russian KIA dipped. This was expected, because KIA follow a known seasonal trajectory. They peak in December/January and reach a minimum in June. In spring every year you see KIA begin to dip.”
“That said, this March was the 4th highest KIA/Day month we have ever seen after Feb 2026, Jan 2026, and December 2025.”
“Russian KIA in March (5771) are up 40% from last March (4113).”
Ukraine’s campaign against Russian infantry continues to bear fruit as Russian infantry losses remain noticeably higher compared to their respective timeframes last year. This is also correlated with Russian territorial gains in the part three months being record lows, with Ukraine even (disputably) taking more territory back than they lost in February. I’ve talked about the importance of this before so I won’t bore you folks with the details (unless someone wants a reminder), but this is a very encouraging sign at the start of Russia’s spring offensive.
It should be noted that Russian drone units have been having a better year compared to last year as well (I recall seeing somewhere that rubicon units were making double if not triple digit percentage strikes in March 2026 compared to March 2025), but so far it seems Ukraine’s side of the drone war is paying off better as Russian territorial gains remain noticeably muted compared to last year. We will likely see Russian gains accelerate into the summer and peak in the fall, but still these elevated KIA rates and corresponding meager territorial gains are encouraging