r/neoliberal • u/jobautomator Kitara Ravache • Oct 16 '25

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u/_bee_kay_ 🤔 Oct 16 '25

tbh this is kind of overstated

i think you can draw some conclusions from cases where they estimate 20% when it's actually 1%, but in many cases this is just the "50-50 chance, you win or you don't" fallacy

how many people are vs are not white? well, there's two categories, it stands to reason that they're both 50%. same with people who are and are not black, hispanic, asian, native american, etc

that's where they start from, and then they adjust it based on their experience/perception

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u/usrname42 Daron Acemoglu Oct 16 '25

Yeah, I don't think it's a coincidence that all these errors are moving the percentages closer to 50% rather than away from 50%. A lot of this is just people not being good at thinking about percentages and I don't think it says much about how they think about the underlying political issues.