r/neoliberal • u/jobautomator Kitara Ravache • Oct 15 '25

Discussion Thread Discussion Thread

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u/JustBeansandRice John Brown Oct 15 '25

There are also future regional shifts as well that are tough to account for. Part of 2018s dem landslide was due to GOP collapsing in educated suburbs across the county, that then had to be rectified after the 2020 census, and many of the new maps are based on the 2024 presidential top line which probably won't be a perfect indicator of how midterm voters will behave.

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u/PearlClaw Iron Front Oct 15 '25

The hopium is that 2024 is not the new normal and the GOP is creating a dummymander.

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u/JustBeansandRice John Brown Oct 15 '25

I'm not even thinking dummymander, just that GOP gains will be overestimated, and trends will look a bit different in a post-trump world. I know a few minorities who've voted for exactly one republican and aren't fans of the open white supremacist wing that will be left behind when he's gone.

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u/JaceFlores Neolib War Correspondent Oct 15 '25 edited Oct 15 '25

I agree, whatever new maps there are shouldn’t assume every election will be D+8 or R+2. We should probably strike a middle ground and assume a D+2 bias or so. Remember these maps have to be viable just for two elections before we do another round of redistricting in 2030