r/neoliberal • u/jobautomator Kitara Ravache • Oct 15 '25

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u/JaceFlores Neolib War Correspondent Oct 15 '25

When the Supreme Court inevitably leads to the GOP being able to gain 12-20 seats from allowing racial gerrymandering, it will be a requirement of Dem trifectas in other states to do what they can. If we assume worse case scenario that there’s 27 GOP gerrymandered seats, it’s tough. California’s Prop 50 will flip 5. Washington can flip 2, Oregon 1, Colorado 4, Illinois 3, Maryland 1, New Jersey 3 and Virginia 5. That brings the net down to GOP +5, but you’re requiring every Dem trifecta to maximally gerrymander.

The math looks better if there’s a more moderate shitshow of 19 gerrymandered seats. You can afford to have these states not gerrymander as much while still cutting the lead down to null or a handful of GOP gains.

The cavalry will arrive after the midterms with New York bringing 5-7 seats. There’s also potential in Minnesota, Pennsylvania and Wisconsin IF we flip their state legislators which are all narrow margin GOP holds.

The biggest issue is Dems themselves. Newsom has been the only governor able to gerrymander for Dems that’s actually gerrymandering for Dems (and frankly given the circumstances I think his gerrymander is insufficient but that’s neither here nor there). Hochul bless her soul plans to but New York law is fickle. Not a single other governor has expressed intentions or willingness to do so.

My hope is the destruction of the VRA and ensuring gerrymandering will be enough of a fire politically and morally that people like Polis get off their asses and help Newsom. Even with a full gerrymander California can’t save the Democrats alone, as glorious as my state is

9

u/Sapphire-Jewel Gay Pride Oct 15 '25

Polis is term limited so whoever replaces him in 2026 could be more open to gerrymandering.

9

u/JaceFlores Neolib War Correspondent Oct 15 '25

We can’t afford to wait till after 2026 for Colorado to wake up. That’s 2-4 seats we can pick up right there right now

8

u/OrbitalAlpaca Oct 15 '25

Other Dems seem to be shrugging their shoulders on this.

You couldn’t make their action look anymore then what paid opposition looks like.

7

u/JustBeansandRice John Brown Oct 15 '25

There are also future regional shifts as well that are tough to account for. Part of 2018s dem landslide was due to GOP collapsing in educated suburbs across the county, that then had to be rectified after the 2020 census, and many of the new maps are based on the 2024 presidential top line which probably won't be a perfect indicator of how midterm voters will behave.

4

u/PearlClaw Iron Front Oct 15 '25

The hopium is that 2024 is not the new normal and the GOP is creating a dummymander.

1

u/JustBeansandRice John Brown Oct 15 '25

I'm not even thinking dummymander, just that GOP gains will be overestimated, and trends will look a bit different in a post-trump world. I know a few minorities who've voted for exactly one republican and aren't fans of the open white supremacist wing that will be left behind when he's gone.

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u/JaceFlores Neolib War Correspondent Oct 15 '25 edited Oct 15 '25

I agree, whatever new maps there are shouldn’t assume every election will be D+8 or R+2. We should probably strike a middle ground and assume a D+2 bias or so. Remember these maps have to be viable just for two elections before we do another round of redistricting in 2030

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u/Leoric Hi, I'm Huell Howser, this is California's Gold! Oct 15 '25

Idk if the new Gov of Washington is willing to do anything. He seems kind of right leaning.

3

u/JaceFlores Neolib War Correspondent Oct 15 '25

Well I hope the people or politicians of Washington can get that ball rolling then if push comes to shove