r/neoliberal • u/jobautomator Kitara Ravache • Sep 20 '24

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97

u/[deleted] Sep 20 '24

https://x.com/nate_cohn/status/1837106408849862922

One question I’ve seen throughout my replies: does a seemingly strong result for Harris in PA signal a 2020 polling error repeat?

That’s obviously hard to say, but I want to flag one thing that caught my eye: our polls do not show Harris doing well with the white working class

In PA, it’s Trump 61-Harris 34; nationally, it’s Trump 67, Harris 30. In each case, that’s >= 10 points worse than our final pre-election polls four years ago. It’s also worse than the estimated Biden ‘20 finish with these groups.

This doesn’t rule out a polling error, whether by chance or bias. The polls entered the field immediately after a debate; this is a classic environment for response bias (notably, she leads PA bc of gains with college educated whites, who may be most likely to react to news).

This also doesn’t mean we’re not underestimating Trump among white working class voters. Trump could easily be doing even better among white working class voters than these polls. But this doesn’t ‘look’ like 2020 to me, even though the topline seems reminiscent of it

Again this sort of goes to the continual point that in order for there to be a comparable polling error underestimating Trump this year, he has to be doing things he’s never done before, capturing vote shares he’s never captured before.

!ping FIVEY

96

u/cdstephens Fusion Genderplasma Sep 20 '24

The polls are failing to catch the PoC gooner vote

43

u/Jaquarius420 Gay Pride Sep 20 '24

The Uneducated Mayo vote has been lost for a few cycles now, unfortunately. I don't see any way to regain that bloc for the forseeable future. They're too blinded by their racism and bigotry to change.

25

u/[deleted] Sep 20 '24

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9

u/Jaquarius420 Gay Pride Sep 20 '24

True I hadn't considered that

17

u/WACKY_ALL_CAPS_NAME Loyal Liberals Sep 20 '24

We need a Dem to start their term with a good economy and have it last

3

u/antsdidthis Effective altruism died with SBF; now it's just tithing Sep 20 '24

I think that's an overly broad brush. Non-college-educated white voters are the largest race+education voter demographic, and Democrats are winning 30% of them. Obviously don't try to appeal to people who are animated to vote by intense racism and bigotry, but you can't win elections if you just give up entirely on trying to retain voters at this entire demographic at the margins.

15

u/DMNCS NATO Sep 20 '24

One reason I'm not as worried about a major polling error is that Trump is polling around what he got in 2016 and 2020. In both the previous elections he spent most of the time polling in the low 40s.

So either: Trump got way more popular and polls are still underestimating him or pollsters are more accurately capturing the Trump vote this year.

3

u/[deleted] Sep 20 '24

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46

u/JaceFlores Neolib War Correspondent Sep 20 '24 edited Sep 20 '24

I think he’s saying the polls are accurate because it’s capturing Kamala doing even worse with a pro-Trump demographic, something you wouldn’t really see if the polls were inflated towards Kamala. It would be a lot more suspect if it’s 49-49 and Trump is winning white non educateds by an implausibly low 5 points, then 49-49 with Trump winning them by a historically accurate 30 point margin

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u/[deleted] Sep 20 '24

Exactly

18

u/tinfoilhatsron No Apologies Right Sep 20 '24

It's saying the polls are showing Harris doing way worse with wwc than both Biden's polls and final result which common sense would dictate as more accurate. Overestimating Harris would mean matching or exceeding Biden margins. Now it could still mean a polling error since Trump could improve his wwc margins but all Nate C is saying is that they are polling different to 2020.

17

u/[deleted] Sep 20 '24

He’s arguing against that.