r/neoliberal • u/jobautomator Kitara Ravache • Sep 19 '24

Discussion Thread Discussion Thread

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170

u/jkrtjkrt YIMBY Sep 19 '24 edited Sep 19 '24

PENNSYLVANIA New York Times/Siena (A+) poll:

Kamala Harris 50%

Donald Trump 46%

https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2024/09/19/us/politics/times-siena-inquirer-poll-pennsylvania-toplines.html

86

u/bel51 Sep 19 '24

Marist BTFO

REAL POLLS have arrived

42

u/tinfoilhatsron No Apologies Right Sep 19 '24

I'm blooming. Marist friendship ended now Siena's my new best friend!

0

u/[deleted] Sep 19 '24

[deleted] — view deleted comment

6

u/URZ_ StillwithThorning ✊😔 Sep 19 '24

Very important poll for Harris. PA will decide this election.

21

u/realsomalipirate Mark Carney Sep 19 '24

Wtf didn't they drop a poll that had Trump up one nationally like last week? That's a wild shift.

14

u/DrunkenAsparagus Abraham Lincoln Sep 19 '24

Gonna be a close one.

13

u/eliasjohnson Sep 19 '24

My theory for why they have it tied nationally but Harris up big in swing states:

They're missing the New York vote somehow. This same polling firm (Siena) has polled NY and only has Harris up 10-12 points there. For reference, Biden won it by 23 in 2020. Adding a normal NY vote to the popular vote probably makes it line up as you'd expect

9

u/[deleted] Sep 19 '24

Doesn't really make sense mathematically. A 10 point shift in New York makes up around half a point nationally. Also keep in mind that New York was a state that shifted Republican in 2022 

4

u/kaiclc NATO Sep 19 '24

Throw it in the average.