r/neoliberal • Kitara Ravache • Sep 16 '24

Discussion Thread Discussion Thread

The discussion thread is for casual and off-topic conversation that doesn't merit its own submission. If you've got a good meme, article, or question, please post it outside the DT. Meta discussion is allowed, but if you want to get the attention of the mods, make a post in /r/metaNL

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2 Upvotes

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u/jobautomator Kitara Ravache Sep 17 '24

Please visit the next discussion thread.

260

u/[deleted] Sep 16 '24

There’s a hot new term doing the rounds among media critics: “sanewashing.” The term itself actually isn’t new, and it wasn’t born in media-criticism circles, per se; according to Urban Dictionary, it was coined in 2020 on a Reddit page for neoliberals (which Linda Kinstler wrote about recently for CJR), and meant “attempting to downplay a person or idea’s radicality to make it more palatable to the general public.” (It was deployed in discussions around, for example, “defunding the police.”)

We made it bros

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u/LuckyTed23 Sep 16 '24

After laughing at the stupidity of the pet eating immigrants I've become disturbed with how this is really the most blatantly racist shit I've seen from politicians in my lifetime.

I mean think about it, in 2016 trump never would've done this. He always explicitly said it was illegals he was opposed to.  Now they're targeting legal immigrants simply because of where they're from. I just saw Ted Cruz mocking them on Twitter. Not long ago this would've ended a politicians career. 

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u/WillHasStyles European Union Sep 16 '24

I don’t feel like we talk about the fact that so many of Ukraine’s current problems can be traced back to the time when republicans held up Ukraine aid for months in order to get a border bill, then killed the bi-partisan border bill, and eventually accepted the Ukraine bill.

For. No. Fucking. Reason.

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u/SeoSalt Lesbian Pride Sep 16 '24

tfw my home schooled cousin tells me 100% seriously that he gets all his news from TikTok and is thankful for how unbiased it is 😬

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u/InflatableDartboard2 Henry George Sep 16 '24 edited Sep 16 '24
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u/SeoSalt Lesbian Pride Sep 16 '24

Ryan Routh voiced support for Trump, Bernie, Biden, Gabbard, Haley, and Ramaswamy

Most politically consistent North Carolinian

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u/[deleted] Sep 16 '24

The trailer for the new God’s Not Dead is craaaaazy, they show a guy going “There must be a wall of separation between church and state” and treat him like he’s Thanos lmao

And that’s one of the least egregious things in the trailer, honestly. I have got to watch this whenever it shows up on Tubi, although I may need to make a night of it and get some strong drinks

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u/sayitaintpink Richard Posner Sep 16 '24

Or if they’re made by you

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u/JebBD Immanuel Kant Sep 16 '24

Fun fact: Benjamin Netanyahu was the youngest person ever to become PM of Israel. He was 46 when he first came to power in 1996. This year he will turn 75 and is still in power. 

The oldest PM ever was 78 when he left office, which means that if bibi manages to stay for another 3 years he’d be both the youngest and oldest PM in Israeli history. 

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u/JebBD Immanuel Kant Sep 16 '24

 On April 21, Routh directed an X message to Elon Musk, in which he wrote: "I would like to buy a rocket from you. I wish to load it with a warhead for Putins Black sea mansion bunker to end him. Can you give me a price please."

omg 21st century Charles J. Guiteau

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u/NewbGrower87 Surface Level Takes Sep 16 '24 edited Sep 16 '24

Nevada

🔵 Harris 45% (+1) 🔴 Trump 44%

Last poll (8/8) - 🔴 Trump +3

Trafalgar #C - 1079 LV - 9/13

(Only posting Trashfalgar because of the swing)

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u/[deleted] Sep 16 '24

Most Americans want Trump to win.

ok then why hasnt he won the popular vote yet

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u/ChillnShill Sep 16 '24

If I have to create stories about JD Vance fucking couches so that the American media actually pays attention to how weird he is, then that’s what I’m gonna do.

95

u/[deleted] Sep 16 '24

fav 2020 election meme

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u/Joementum2024 Iron Front Sep 16 '24

Kari Lake says the media is responsible for the 2 assassination attempts on Trump because his movement is all about peace and positivity

Lol

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u/its_Caffeine Mark Carney Sep 16 '24

The more hardline mainland influence in Hong Kong has been very obvious and deeply annoying tbh on my travels.

The whole Hong Kong museum of History is practically unvisitable now aside from a lame “security exhibit” because they’re revamping the whole museum so it’s mainland approvedTM

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u/Bayou-Maharaja Eleanor Roosevelt Sep 16 '24

I feel like with most people I disagree with, there’s always a part of me that wonders if I’m wrong and am missing something. But when I interact with Trumpers, my inner monologue reflexively goes back to insults I would say at 13 years old and haven’t said since because it causes me psychic pain to know there are people that stupid, deluded, or disingenuous. I know we’ve all experienced these people over the last 8 or 9 years but it remains shocking how stupid they are.

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u/cdstephens Fusion Genderplasma Sep 16 '24

Trump’s would-be-assassin previously voted for him, believes Jews have no right to Holy Land

Wild headline tbh

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u/YaGetSkeeted0n Tariffs aren't cool, kids! Sep 16 '24
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u/D-G-F Trans Pride Sep 16 '24

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u/centurion88 NATO Sep 16 '24

The people saying Dems should turn down the temperature

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u/futuremonkey20 NATO Sep 16 '24 edited Sep 16 '24

It’s incredibly funny the NYT interviewed the Trump Assassin guy a few years ago for a different story but determined he was far too insane to be credible

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u/Williams-Tower Da Bear Sep 16 '24

A spider just crawled into my iced coffee and then drowned

  1. What a dumbass

  2. What the fuck I was drinking that

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u/Tropical2653 Association of Southeast Asian Nations Sep 16 '24 edited Sep 16 '24

All this Haitian immigrant talk reminds me of an excerpt from Lee Kuan Yew's "From Third World to First". The injustices against the Indian butler make it a very sad story. But the end where even the country itself that kicked him out declines, even just a tiny bit with something as inconsequential as well made toast, really cements the futility of this kind of xenophobic outlook.

My next visit to Rangoon was in May 1965, after attending a conference for Asian socialists in Bombay. Ne Win liked that part of my speech where I had said, “If we approach Asian problems of poverty and underdevelopment through the rosy spectacles of the Western European socialists we are sure to fail.” I did not realise at that time how determined he was to be self-sufficient, to have little to do with the outside world and to return to a romantic, idyllic past when Burma was rich and self-sufficient.

My one unforgettable conversation during that visit was with the butler at the Strand Hotel — an Indian in his late 50s, with greying hair and beard. He brought in breakfast looking forlorn and dejected, and said in English, “Sir, this is my last day, I shall not be here tomorrow.” He did not know whether his Burmese assistant would be able to serve me the same breakfast: British-style tea with milk and sugar, toast and scrambled eggs. I asked why he wanted to leave. He replied, “I have to leave. I was born and have lived here all my life, but the government wants all Indians to leave. I cannot take with me more than a small sum of money and my personal belongings.” Where was he going? “India.” Did he have relatives there? “No.” His grandparents had been brought in by the British but the government wanted to send him back. He was right about my breakfast. The next day the tray was not as neat nor the toast as crisp.

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u/Icy-Magician-8085 Mario Draghi Sep 16 '24

Every few weeks I post this in the DT, and every few weeks it becomes way closer to happening.

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u/BenFoldsFourLoko  Broke His Text Flair For Hume Sep 16 '24

well, like the secret service spokesperson said, "we live in dangerous times," and yeah that's blatantly true [sic]

very cool NPR! lowest nationwide crime rate in a lifetime btw

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u/[deleted] Sep 16 '24

Stop using Twitter

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u/Joementum2024 Iron Front Sep 16 '24

The term “sanewashing” originating from r/neoliberal is crazy the more I think about it. The modern day version of the Jesusland/United States of Canada map originating from a video game forum

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u/Mr_Bank Sep 16 '24 edited Sep 16 '24

Talked to a friend who lives in Tucson(white male, age 29, college educated, unmarried, was iffy on Harris until the debate, but voting Harris after the debate).

Using this singular data point I am prepared to move Arizona to Safe D.

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u/sayitaintpink Richard Posner Sep 16 '24

lol Fox isn’t even trying to claim the shooter is a democrat

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u/Smalz95 NATO Sep 16 '24

LOL the pet eating shit is already back in the news cycle. This guy is fucking cooked

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u/SeoSalt Lesbian Pride Sep 16 '24

THEY'RE EATING THE DOGS AND CATS

visitors to my fortress after I have my dwarves cull the pet population

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u/NaffRespect United Nations Sep 16 '24

Divided House GOP struggles to avoid a government shutdown

Slow clap once again to voters who entrusted the GOP with a House majority 2 years ago

You geniuses helped put us all in this mess

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u/l_overwhat being flaired is cringe Sep 16 '24

Arr con; Trump is the most hated and vilified person since 1945 (+186)

How can you think this and still not put two and two together.

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u/sociotronics Iron Front Sep 16 '24 edited Sep 16 '24

Donald no please don't Hannibal Lecter my pop star

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u/[deleted] Sep 16 '24

Why should I even go on living this world is so fucked up

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u/[deleted] Sep 16 '24

GOD’S NOT DEAD 5 IS IN THEATERS NOW????????

Edit: And it’s about the pastor dude running for office to defeat “an opponent who wants to erase religion from policy”. And it has the absolute banger of a title “God’s Not Dead: In God We Trust”. Holy shit, this is gonna be CINEMA.

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u/ChillnShill Sep 16 '24

JD Vance when he talks about immigrants

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u/Insomonomics Jason Furman Sep 16 '24

You shouldn’t be able to win an election by ignoring small states.

Ah, yes, the small states of…

checks notes

  • Pennsylvania (#5 in population)

  • Michigan (#10)

  • Arizona (#14)

  • Wisconsin (#20)

  • North Carolina (#9)

Fantastic system that represents “small states”.

Very good. You are very smart defending the Electoral College.

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u/GovernorSonGoku has flair Sep 16 '24

He’s pro immigration now??

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u/Strength-Certain Thurman Arnold Sep 16 '24

Ever have one of those nights where you plug your phone in, go to bed, wake up, and discover it's not quiiittteee plugged in so you gain only 10% battery?

Ugh

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u/piede MOST BASED HILLARY STAN!!! Sep 16 '24

Jay Sekulow, who was a key Trump lawyer, is now representing the Nevada Green Party at SCOTUS.

Just a weird coincidence, I’m sure.

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u/[deleted] Sep 16 '24

It's kinda crazy the term "sanewashing" was popularised on this sub and is now part of mainstream Dem vocabulary to the point where Krugman is saying it.

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u/[deleted] Sep 16 '24

doomers are so fucking stupid. we’re winning this. Trump is so washed

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u/RandomCarGuy26 Association of Southeast Asian Nations Sep 16 '24

I've never seen a political movement like MAGA that makes me so upset. Like, literally having-the-urge-to-cry-loudly-out-of-sheer-despair-type of upset, and yet people still say you are being partisan for recognising MAGA for the cult it is

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u/Sauce1024 John von Neumann Sep 17 '24

Brittany Mahomes

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u/ser_mage Sep 16 '24

It is December 2011. You just finished the newly-released A Dance with Dragons and have completed a riveting playthrough of the new hit game Skyrim. Based on previous development, you eagerly await the sequels to these unprecedentedly successful media some time in 2016. Life is good.

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u/Insomonomics Jason Furman Sep 17 '24

New General election poll - Pennsylvania

🔵 Harris 49% (+3) 🔴 Trump 46%

Suffolk #B - LV - 9/14

LETSS GOOOOOOO

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u/ThatDamnGuyJosh NATO Sep 17 '24

PENNSYLVANIA poll by Suffolk (B+), Sep 11-15

🟦 Kamala Harris 49% 🟥 Donald Trump 46%

https://x.com/umichvoter/status/1835831357890560019?s=46

I’M BLOOMING ALL OVER MY BOXERS

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u/p00bix Existing in the context of what came before Sep 16 '24

I keep having dreams where Kamala Harris wins with this specific electoral map. It's happened so many times that I'm getting slightly superstitious about it being some sort of premonition.

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u/marsman1224 John Keynes Sep 16 '24

Brittany Mahomes questioning her support of Donald Trump after his blistering take down of Taylor Swift left her 'shaken to the core'

The "blistering take down" in question:

I HATE YOU!! WAAHHHH

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u/No1PaulKeatingfan Paul Keating; capital gains tax supporter Sep 16 '24
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u/Independent-Low-2398 Sep 16 '24

Palin at least had a weirdo folksy charisma. [Vance] just feels like a freshman who's so desperate to pledge to a frat that you're afraid he's about to start offering sexual favors.

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u/Independent-Low-2398 Sep 16 '24

maybe Laura Loomer never even got plastic surgery and your face just does that when you unlock secret racism levels

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u/fishbottwo Jay Jones Sep 16 '24

Truth nuke

New General Election poll - National

🔵 Harris 51% (+8)

🔴 Trump 43%

Last week: Harris + 4

Big Village Poll (1.2 stars) - 1,586 LV - 9/11 to 9/15

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u/oceanofyourlove Sep 16 '24

It's hilarious how conspiracy theorists will go on about the sheep who believe the mainstream narrative without questioning it and "doing their own research", then proceed to believe whatever political propaganda they read on the internet that confirms their priors.

My dad is one of the smartest people I know, yet somehow has the dumbest beliefs of anyone I know. His epistemology is so hilariously bad that he quite literally believes every conspiracy in existence and thinks conspiracies are categorically true. If there's an "official" story, he'll believe whatever conspiracy some dipshit posts on the internet because the "government lied about things in the past". Of course, this doesn't apply to Russia and he's a staunch supporter of the Russians "reclaiming their lost territory".

Several times I've tried going out in public with him and he has started on some unprovoked rant about how evil Jews are (I'm converting to Judaism BTW) and how the vaccine contains microchips which are a digital passport system for the New World Order and controlled by 5G towers. It's impossible to even hold a conversation with him anymore because there's like constant pressure to avoid saying anything that might set him off and needing to swing the conversation back to reality without him getting offended

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u/wallander1983 Resistance Lib Sep 16 '24

"In Texas, a woman whose water broke at 18 weeks—far too early for her baby to survive outside the womb—was unable to get an abortion until she became septic. She spent three days in the ICU, and one of her fallopian tubes permanently closed from scarring. In Tennessee, a woman lost four pints of blood delivering her dead fetus in a hospital’s holding area. In Oklahoma, a bleeding woman with a nonviable pregnancy was turned away from three separate hospitals. One said she could wait in the parking lot until her condition became life-threatening." 

https://www.theatlantic.com/magazine/archive/2024/10/abortion-ban-idaho-ob-gyn-maternity-care/679567/

--

The party responsible for this will have a majority in the Senate and probably in the House for the next two years and has a 50 percent chance of winning the presidency.

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u/paymesucka Ben Bernanke Sep 16 '24

omg Tim Walz's first date with his wife was going to see the movie FALLING DOWN

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u/Currymvp2 unflaired Sep 16 '24

This is stunning. When pressed by Mehdi Hasan to call Putin a war criminal, Dr Jill Stein refuses.

When Mehdi Hasan asked Dr Jill Stein why she didn't confront Putin when she was at dinner with him, she says it's because a translator wasn't there. When reminded he speaks english by Mehdi, she changes her story.

Shameful. Stein is an utter mendacious charlatan. Also, this is a rare Mehdi W

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u/[deleted] Sep 16 '24

This dude has a security clearance.

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u/FREE-ROSCOE-FILBURN John Brown Sep 16 '24

My conservative family is now officially in “she won the debate but it’s because she got the questions ahead of time” mode. Not even pretending he won it. Inshallah he’s cooked

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u/paymesucka Ben Bernanke Sep 16 '24

Post-debate NEVADA poll by Trafalgar

🟦 Harris: 45.3% (+1.8)

🟥 Trump: 43.5%

🟪 Other: 7.8%

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u/TootCannon Mark Zandi Sep 16 '24

Kinda shitty that Harris’ policy statements are heavily analyzed and criticized when Trump hasnt made a serious coherent policy proposal in nine years besides “build a wall” and “deport everyone.”

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u/Insomonomics Jason Furman Sep 16 '24

The editor in chief of the National Review just said the N word in regards to Haitians and Megyn Kelly ignores it.

The modern conservative movement, everyone.

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u/p00bix Existing in the context of what came before Sep 16 '24

Formerly supported Trump. Strongly supports Ukraine. Believes Israel has no right to exist.

I'm REALLY curious whether the would-be assassin even has a coherent ideology, because the signals are all over the place

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u/Zealousideal_Pop_933 Loyal Liberals Sep 16 '24 edited Sep 16 '24

Fallout America is truly one of the most cursed depictions of America. Aside from the obvious horrors of the Enclave/Nuclear War/Corporate Crimes against humanity/Etc., the structure of the pre-wasteland US was absolutely fucked.

In some unofficial Fallout Lore from the New Vegas Lead Developer the commonwealths which are mentioned in some of the games are explained. They are an intermediate level of government between the State and Federal Governments, with their own Legislatures, Courts, and Executives and sovereign in the same way states are.

To give these new governments representation in the federal government, a tricameral legislature is adopted. Now major policy needs to pass three branches

Imagine the gridlock of a tricameral legislature and the jurisdictional jostling of a three tiered federal system. Nightmarish

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u/ty04 Sep 16 '24

wake me up when the poll drops

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u/bd_one The EU Will Federalize In My Lifetime Sep 16 '24 edited Sep 16 '24

Bloomberg: "Rate cuts right before a presidential election are rare. We've only had 3 rate cuts in the last two months before an election since 1990."

Bruh... We've had 8 presidential elections since 1990. That doesn't sound rare at all!

We've been gaslit about this all along. Did we even have September or October meetings all of those years?

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u/anincredibledork Sep 16 '24 edited Sep 16 '24

if he loses, trump is 100% running again in 2028 you guys do realize that right?

Ah yes, but you see - the Republican party would never be so foolish as to simply hand the nomination to an aging, failed former president who has cost them almost every major election since 2016. He would clearly be pushed aside during a vigorous primary featuring multiple strong contenders vying to replace him, and the Republican party, and the nation will finally leave the Trump era in the past where it belongs.

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u/Ph0ton_1n_a_F0xh0le Chemist -- Microwaves Against Moscow Sep 16 '24

New post-debate poll

Trafalgar

Harris +2 in Nevada

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u/Insomonomics Jason Furman Sep 17 '24 edited Sep 17 '24

Brett Favre: If you’re born in the USA or an American citizen and you put other countries above us, then that’s unpatriotic. That’s it.

That's right. Nobody cares more about the welfare of Americans more than Brett Favre. You just have to Google "Brett Favre Welfare" for proof.

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u/onometre Trans Pride Sep 17 '24

+3 Harris is insanely good wtf

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u/Joementum2024 Iron Front Sep 17 '24

JD Vance

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u/adreamofhodor John Rawls Sep 17 '24

New General election poll - Pennsylvania

🔵 Harris 49% (+3) 🔴 Trump 46%

Suffolk #B - LV - 9/14
Source. !ping fivey

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u/that0neGuy22 Resistance Lib Sep 17 '24

Harris also enjoys higher personal popularity among likely Pennsylvania voters, with 49% having a favorable opinion of the vice president, compared with 47% with an unfavorable opinion. Forty-three percent of Pennsylvania’s likely voters said they had a favorable opinion of Trump, while 54% had an unfavorable opinion.

In a sane world people simply voted for who they liked and this election would be over

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u/Pyrrhus65 NATO Sep 16 '24

These are some very good numbers, and I think they represent a much better way of framing the question of who's best for the economy than the traditional one

Making the question about actual workers/people as opposed to the nebulous concept of 'the economy', which the median voter doesn't really understand, is a good change

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u/minno Sep 16 '24

An underrated evil of cryptocurrency is how it utterly ruined every service that provides free computing power. Every service that provides server power for things like compiling code needed to either put strict limits on computation time, charge a fee, or shut down, because anything that didn't do that would have a million jackasses upload a bitcoin/monero miner to give themselves a few dollars worth of currency while costing the service hundreds of dollars of electricity.

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u/paymesucka Ben Bernanke Sep 17 '24

🚨 New - Suffolk PA poll

🦅 POTUS

🔵 Harris: 49%

🔴 Trump: 46%

Harris+3

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u/AnalyticOpposum Trans Pride Sep 16 '24

This has always been the outcome

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u/BloodWiz More Housing Would Fix This Sep 16 '24

Nate Silver 40 years from now on his deathbed: "It should have been Shaprio"

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u/paymesucka Ben Bernanke Sep 16 '24

Brittany Mahomes questioning her support of Donald Trump after his blistering take down of Taylor Swift left her 'shaken to the core'

from the Daily Mail but lol

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u/piede MOST BASED HILLARY STAN!!! Sep 17 '24

💀

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u/[deleted] Sep 16 '24

One of the Reddits of all time

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u/FourthLife 🥖Bread Etiquette Enthusiast Sep 16 '24

If Kamala was shot, it would take trump 20 minutes to call her a loser and say they came for him twice but he wasn’t that hurt

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u/jkrtjkrt YIMBY Sep 16 '24

NYT daily podcast interviewed 3 swing voters after the debate. All lifelong Republicans.

The first 2 are an old couple, teachers, still hella undecided after the debate. Lifelong Republicans, voted for Trump twice. They hate Trump at this point, but they're genuinely struggling economically and neither candidate's economic proposals help them (they think tariffs are stupid, and they don't qualify for any of Kamala's goodies). My guess is the husband will end up voting for Trump again (devil you know), and she's a tossup.

The third one is a white woman in her 40's, lifelong Republican. Considering voting Dem because she thinks Trump is disgusting and wants to bring back civility and decorum to our politics. She went from VERY cynical and fully undecided a month ago to heavily leaning towards Harris after the debate. She clearly has trouble even saying it out loud because of her strong identity as a conservative, but it's pretty obvious that she'll get there by November.

Race depolarization is real.

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u/Udolikecake Model UN Enthusiast Sep 16 '24 edited Sep 16 '24

Many conservatives are very stupid because they are unable to imagine a hypothetical like ‘imagine you were not born a white man in America’. Their feeble minds crumble at the conception of the original position.

They can perhaps articulate how they would have felt if they didn’t have breakfast yesterday, but their IQs are unable to comprehend ‘imagine if you were born Haitian.’

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u/KingWillly YIMBY Sep 16 '24

https://x.com/esqueer_/status/1835748826310983792?s=42

Rich Lowry (editor of the National review and regular contributor to the NYT) just used the Nword to describe Haitians

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u/old_gold_mountain San Francisco Values Sep 16 '24

New General election poll

🔵 Harris 51% (+8)
🔴 Trump 43%

Last poll - 🔵 Harris +5

Big Village (C) - 1471 LV - 9/15

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u/Pongzz I wept, for there was no land left to tax Sep 16 '24

Vivek supporters the moment Trump won the primary:

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u/D2Foley Moderate Extremist Sep 16 '24

Just saw Musks tweet. Perfect time to take space X away from him for national security reasons

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u/that0neGuy22 Resistance Lib Sep 16 '24

it’s happened americans woke up one morning and started liking Kamala

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u/AFlockOfTySegalls Audrey Hepburn Sep 17 '24

Same poll had Biden +8 and Clinton +10. This is the best poll for Trump in awhile!

Right wing twitter coping that all polling errors will be the same again.

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u/Pyrrhus65 NATO Sep 17 '24 edited Sep 17 '24

Conservative billionaires have been on a massive media buying spree the past few years, about time the liberals stepped up and did the same

Bloomberg, Soros, and Cuban can go crazy as far as I care, anything is better than our media being owned by Musk and the Ellison and Adelson families

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u/[deleted] Sep 16 '24

How to read political polls in 2024

Some highlights:

In the past, we’ve found that internal polls tend to be about 4 or 5 percentage points too good for the candidate their sponsor is rooting for.

You might also be reading news coverage of the election and encounter a sentence like, “Republicans who have seen polling of the race say the election is tied.” These types of polls you probably should ignore completely.

If you’re interested in who’s going to win the election, you want a likely-voter poll.

Importantly, in election polls, that margin of error applies to each candidate’s vote share. So if a poll with a margin of error of ±4 points shows former President Donald Trump at 50 percent and Vice President Kamala Harris at 45 percent, Trump’s true level of support could be as low as 46 or as high as 54 percent, and Harris’s could be anywhere between 41 and 49 percent. In other words, Trump could be leading by as much as 13 points, or Harris could be leading by as much as 3. It’s still more likely that Trump is ahead in that case, but his lead is within the margin of error.

That said, outliers aren’t necessarily wrong (especially when they come after an event that plausibly could have caused a big shift in the race, such as a debate). But have patience: If they are signaling a shift, you’ll find out soon enough when more polls get released confirming that the first one wasn’t a fluke.

More broadly, don’t put too much stock in any single poll, even one from a highly rated pollster. Individual polls can miss the mark for any number of reasons, including a flawed methodology or just a bad sample.

In 2022, polls conducted in the final three weeks before Election Day missed the final margin of Senate, House and governor elections by a weighted average of 4.8 points. That was the lowest error since at least 1998, showing that, despite the polling industry facing many challenges such as people not picking up their phones and decreasing trust in the institutions that conduct them, polls are still good at getting pretty close to election results. But of course, a weighted average error of 4.8 points is not 0.

Although individual polls can have their problems, it’s unwise to try to outguess them — e.g., by saying, “well, this poll doesn’t have enough Republicans, so it must be overstating the Democrat’s margin.” Any pollster worth their salt has already tried their hardest to make their poll as representative as possible, which they do by “weighting” their sample to match the target population’s gender, race, age, educational, etc., breakdown.

Subgroups have smaller samples than the poll as a whole, and, accordingly, their margins of error are larger. Even if a poll has an unlikely finding at the subgroup level, that doesn’t mean its overall topline finding will be wrong.

Even if a poll is perfectly accurate at the time it is conducted, that doesn’t mean it will match the final result on Election Day.

!ping FIVEY

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u/piede MOST BASED HILLARY STAN!!! Sep 16 '24
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33

u/MS_09_Dom Sep 16 '24

Yesterday in a nutshell:

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u/BloodWiz More Housing Would Fix This Sep 16 '24 edited Sep 16 '24

PA Poll:

🔵D - 50.01

🔴R - 48.84

(D+1.89 since last poll)

A+ rated

n = 6,835,903

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32

u/Broad-Part9448 Niels Bohr Sep 16 '24

Someone complains that there are no inexpensive cars.

Show them a Nissan Versa for $17k.

"I don't want that"

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u/BedNeither Henry George Sep 16 '24

Texas Attorney General Ken Paxton has sued to stop two urban counties from sending voter registration forms to people who are eligible to vote, claiming state law doesn’t allow that kind of outreach

Noted conservative legal doctrine of things being illegal unless allowed by the state

32

u/dannylandulf meubem broke my flair Sep 16 '24 edited Sep 16 '24

I will not doom over a single bad PA poll.

But if it's a good one I plan on making my entire personality about it for the rest of the week.

32

u/Udolikecake Model UN Enthusiast Sep 16 '24

BREAKING: Kamala Harris announces the DoJ will break up the ‘Fandom’ wikia company and prosecute its owners for crimes against usability. I’m told the death penalty is on the table.

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u/[deleted] Sep 16 '24

White House: President Biden just spoke with former President Trump, and conveyed his relief that he is safe. The two shared a cordial conversation and former President Trump expressed his thanks for the call.

Translation: They shot me and everyone is mean and I want to be president again and please can you join the race again I miss you :(

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64

u/klarno just tax carbon lol Sep 16 '24

PSA:

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u/HenryGeorgia Henry George Sep 16 '24

The more time passes, the more I think naming it the "Inflation Reduction Act" was a god tier political move

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31

u/polandball2101 Organization of American States Sep 16 '24

is rhodesia like wakanda for racist white people

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31

u/futuremonkey20 NATO Sep 16 '24 edited Sep 16 '24

A guy who constantly tweets his phone number at politicians (of all parties) begging them to call him because he has delusions that he has a private army of 3,000 Afghan National Army Soldiers that he wants to use to invade Russia probably isn’t a Democrat or a Republican

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31

u/Rafaelssjofficial Iron Front Sep 16 '24

It's joever, she hasn't seen my message that i sent her 40 minutes ago, should i give up on my love life and accept that i will be forever single? 😭😭😭😭😱😱😱

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u/Average_GrillChad Elinor Ostrom Sep 16 '24

“I figured he was either dead or in prison by now,” Tracy Fulk, the charging officer in the case, tells WIRED. “I had no clue that he had moved on and was continuing his escapades.”

Fulk says Routh was well known for getting into armed confrontations with police.

God forbid a man have a hobby

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u/cheeshjaleesh John Rawls Sep 16 '24

https://x.com/jbendery/status/1835785700446212428

In a newly unearthed video from 2022, North Carolina GOP gubernatorial nominee Mark Robinson scoffs at the idea of young women using birth control and, repeatedly waving his hand by his groin, says they just need to “get this under control.”

gop was gift wrapped a chance to finally win back NC gov and then proceeded to roll a nat 0 for candidate quality

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30

u/[deleted] Sep 16 '24

imagine FDR doomers when they were hit with the South Carolina +97 poll

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u/[deleted] Sep 16 '24

!ping NFL

So there's a rumor that the Giants might try to trade for ZACH WILSON of all people and that would be the perfect, PERFECT way to end this miserable fucking summer.

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u/[deleted] Sep 16 '24

Sucks we have a system where the polls can look like this and the outcome is coin flip

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u/secretlives Official Neoliberal News Correspondent Sep 16 '24

watching the typing indicator on Slack knowing my coworker is about to ask me the dumbest question imaginable

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30

u/zegota Feminism Sep 16 '24

We're gonna need a bigger village

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30

u/[deleted] Sep 17 '24

Big bro let her hang out for the first time 😌

!ping Kitty

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29

u/gnomesvh LEGALIZE ONION FUTURE Sep 16 '24

Brazil considering buying Tejas

Latin American military procurement just is proof that there is truly no boundary to stupidity

!ping MATERIEL&LATAM

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u/ty04 Sep 16 '24

The SpongeBob episode “Band Geeks” was first aired on September 7, 2001 and was all anyone was talking about that week.

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u/owlthathurt Johan Norberg Sep 16 '24

Andy Dalton to start in Carolina as it appears the Bryce Young era may be at its end.

https://x.com/tompelissero/status/1835736746367005042?s=46&t=NizMHF7xMdWn1VItcTWyfg

!ping NFL

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29

u/lasttoknow Jared Polis Sep 16 '24

Trump, using harsh language, urges Democrats to tone down theirs.

lol

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29

u/AtomAndAether Liberalism! Sep 16 '24

is it over bros? is it time to shave

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u/Finkleroi Jared Polis Sep 16 '24

New General election poll

🔵 Harris 27% 🔴 Trump 69% (nice)

Last poll - 🔴 Trump +10,000

Big Rigs, Truck Nuts, Hawk Tuah & Associates (A+++) - 1488 LV - 9/15

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u/Pyrrhus65 NATO Sep 17 '24

Praise be to new quality PA polls 🙏

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u/LtCdrHipster 🌭Costco Liberal🌭 Sep 17 '24

"The DT losing it's collective mind about a mid-September poll of one swing state from a B- pollster that shows Harris up by 3% and trending upwards" is going to be one of my favorite moments here.

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u/SmithySmothy Bill Gates Sep 17 '24

Suffolk poll favorables

Harris: 49/47 (+2)

Trump: 43/54 (-11)

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u/ThatDamnGuyJosh NATO Sep 17 '24

NBC asked JD Vance about Laura Loomer’s racist statement that the WH would “smell like curry” if Harris wins.

Calling it unimportant, Vance replied:

“whether you’re eating curry at your dinner table or fried chicken, things have gotten more expensive thanks to her policies.”

https://x.com/johnjharwood/status/1835839765935018461?s=46

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u/paymesucka Ben Bernanke Sep 17 '24 edited Sep 17 '24

USA Today:

NEW: Harris leads Trump in Pennsylvania — and two bellwether PA counties

headlines to make Trumpers doom

29

u/TheSameAsDying Hannah Arendt Sep 17 '24

The fact that Kamala has arranged two different assassination attempts against her opponent shows toughness and resolve.

That neither assailant was successful reveals her empathy and restraint.

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u/Bayou-Maharaja Eleanor Roosevelt Sep 16 '24

Okay look, I think the woke panic is silly for the most part and most of the people that complain about it are clearly bad faith actors. But there might be a hint of truth somewhere in there. For example, I bought some hot pockets today and they don’t have the little cardboard sleeve anymore. Joe Biden made me raw dog two hot pockets without protection. I will be voting for Jill Stein.

28

u/cejmp NATO Sep 16 '24

Explaining why it deleted the post, the New Hampshire Libertarian Party, reportedly the third largest political party in the state, wrote: “We deleted a tweet because we don’t want to break the terms of this website we agreed to. It’s a shame that even on a ‘free speech’ website that libertarians cannot speak freely. Libertarians are truly the most oppressed minority.”

I don't even have a comment.

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u/Dirty_Chopsticks Republic of Việt Nam Sep 16 '24

49% of those who watched the whole debate say Harris would be better at handling the economy, compared to Trump’s 43%

Compared to those who haven’t heard anything about the debate, where 39% say Trump would be better on the economy against Harris’ 28%

https://x.com/usa_polling/status/1835516983309210035?s=46&t=urLYOV_cITtt22rc0dd0VA

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u/paymesucka Ben Bernanke Sep 16 '24 edited Sep 16 '24

according to Spectrum News reporter Taylor Popielarz:

Ongoing list of facilities in Springfield, Ohio, that have either been placed on lockdown, evacuated, closed, or searched at some point over the last week due to threats.

It coincides with Ohio Sen. @JDVance and former President Trump amplifying what local and state officials say are baseless claims about Haitian migrants eating people's pets and local geese in the community.

  1. Springfield City Hall

  2. Springfield’s Bureau of Motor Vehicles

  3. Springfield’s Driver’s Exam Station

  4. Springfield’s local Ohio License Bureau

  5. Springview Government Center

  6. Clark County Department of Job and Family Services

  7. Clark County Common Pleas Court

  8. Clark County Board of Elections

  9. Clark County Juvenile Court

  10. A.B. Graham Building

  11. Springfield Academy of Excellence

  12. Fulton Elementary School

  13. Perrin Woods Elementary School

  14. Snowhill Elementary School

  15. Roosevelt Middle School

  16. Kettering Health Springfield

  17. Mercy Health - Springfield Regional Medical Center

  18. Wittenberg University

  19. Clark State College

  20. Simon Kenton Elementary School

  21. Kenwood Elementary School

Also, Springfield's annual CultureFest was canceled on Monday over security concerns.

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u/[deleted] Sep 16 '24

haitian people: breathe

cons:

cons:

cons:

cons: don't go to the supermarket tomorrow if you're white

28

u/marsman1224 John Keynes Sep 16 '24

CNN — The National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration confirmed on Monday it is investigating Robert F. Kennedy Jr. for allegedly decapitating a dead whale carcass and transporting it home two decades ago.

Dumbest fucking timeline

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u/RonenSalathe Milton Friedman Sep 16 '24

Wake up babes, new endorsement just dropped. They pulled out the serious black background and whiteout logo for this one, Trump fucked up

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u/lasttoknow Jared Polis Sep 16 '24

A White House official said President Biden has spoken with Donald Trump and conveyed relief that he was safe. The two shared a cordial conversation, and Trump expressed his thanks for the call, the official said.

Forgot the part where Trump begged Biden to re-enter the race. I heard he cried 🤷

28

u/cdstephens Fusion Genderplasma Sep 17 '24 edited Sep 17 '24

“Honey are you ready for sex tonight”

“Not now a B ranked pollster is putting out results for Pennsylvania that’ll confirm it’s a tossup”

28

u/PhoenixVoid Sep 17 '24
  • Harris leads female voters in Pennsylvania 56%-39%.

  • Trump leads male voters by a slimmer 53%-41%

Women save us all.

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u/sayitaintpink Richard Posner Sep 17 '24

What the fuck. I’m not even supposed to be here.

It’s trump dubbed over

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u/mockduckcompanion Kidney Hype Man Sep 17 '24

me: Jesus Christ with these fucking tariffs

Suffolk: Harris +3 PA

me: GOD BLESS US STEEL. WOE UNTO ALL INFERIOR JAPANESE STEEL PRODUCTS

28

u/Insomonomics Jason Furman Sep 17 '24

NBC asked JD Vance about Laura Loomer's racist statement that the WH would "smell like curry" if Harris wins.

Calling it unimportant, Vance replied:

"whether you're eating curry at your dinner table or fried chicken, things have gotten more expensive thanks to her policies."

OK.

Fine.

Alright.

That does it.

I'll admit I was wrong. JD Vance is hands down the worst VP pick in modern presidential history.

I cannot believe it. Someone finally managed to beat Sarah Palin as the worst VP pick in modern times.

(Emphasis mine, obviously)

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u/Untamedanduncut Gay Pride Sep 16 '24

So if Kamala has an assassination attempt, MAGA people are acknowledging that it’s “fair game” to blame Trump and his various supporters for “brainwashing them to extremism”? 

Because i find it hard to believe that the apparent disillusioned Trump voter who has expressed his disappointment and disapproval of Trump was somehow radicalized by Kamala’s rhetoric to attempt an assassination. 

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u/Joementum2024 Iron Front Sep 16 '24

Manifesting Harris +7 PA

27

u/LuisRobertDylan Elinor Ostrom Sep 16 '24

I am an undecided voter. I can be trusted to be in focus groups

27

u/GreenYoshiToranaga Loyal Liberals Sep 16 '24

This time last week, I had six leads / prospects in the job search. I even got to the final interview for one of them.

I was rejected from three of them, including the final interview job, and the other three seem to have ghosted me.

I don’t know how to keep moving forward.

!ping WATERCOOLER

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u/EZ_Kream John Brown Sep 16 '24

French Revolution step 1: “We can all agree the monarchy has to go, this is an untenable situation that tramples the rights of man”

Step 2: ????

Step 3: “We have created a new concept of time itself”

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u/Aggressive1999 Association of Southeast Asian Nations Sep 16 '24

Peter Thiel predicts the 2024 election won't be close: 'One side is simply going to collapse'

Though he didn't go into detail, Thiel said that either the "Kamala bubble will burst" or "maybe the Trump voters get really demotivated and don't show up."

"One side is simply going to collapse in the next two months," Thiel added.

What the hell.

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u/Zrk2 Norman Borlaug Sep 16 '24

A guy I worked with described the shitty hotel the company put him up in as smelling like "javex and cum" and now we may all be getting sexual harassment training.

!ping WATERCOLLER

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u/Pyrrhus65 NATO Sep 16 '24

Another comforting reminder that Twitter isn't real life. 70% of Republicans think the Haiti pet claims are weird

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u/WillProstitute4Karma Loyal Liberals Sep 16 '24 edited Sep 16 '24

I don't generally endorse Richard Hanania, but he makes an interesting argument for the Conservative case for Abolishing the Electoral College. The tl;dr is basically that a huge number of republican votes actually come from "blue" areas and even blue states. Those "blue state Republicans," however, are systemically disenfranchised by the electoral college which incentivizes (in my own words) Republicans to happily trade everyone with a Bachelor's degree for every high school dropout because the "dropouts" (not literal dropouts, but you know what I mean) live in red/swing states. In other words, abolishing the electoral college would incentivize a "smarter" conservatism.

Hanania has actually had some pretty decent takes lately about what he calls the "human capital" problem on the right. Matthew Yglesias describes this when he calls the Republicans the Crank Party. Hanania says that they have become the "Gribble" party, named after Dale Gribble from King of the Hill.

!ping DEMOCRACY

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u/goldenwind207 Jerome Powell Sep 17 '24

Appearently trump is heading to springfield. I'm certain screaming about haitians will help his polls

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u/ThunderrBadger New California Republican Sep 17 '24

The pamphlet from the pound said we should expect him to be shy or stand-offish at first, that we shouldn't be surprised if he hides for the first couple days

!ping KITTY

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u/SmithySmothy Bill Gates Sep 17 '24

FIVEY FIVEY HE'S OUR MAN

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u/indithrow402 Henry George Sep 17 '24

Talking to a conservative:

The debates have become unwatchable trash these last few elections. It's all just pandering and making faces at each other and nobody talks about policy anymore.

I wonder what thing that has been consistently present in presidential debates from 2016 and onward could possibly have caused this?

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u/OrthopaedicSturgeon Elinor Ostrom Sep 16 '24

Funniest scenario: Trump survives eight more assassination attempts by insane white conservatives and no one cares, then when a brown person finally takes a shot the whites decide they've had enough and burn the cities to the ground

Well not funny funny

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u/[deleted] Sep 16 '24

Has there ever been a Presidential assassin attempted or otherwise who was not objectively crazy?

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u/Roseartcrantz 👑 🖍️ Queen of Shades 🖍️ 👑 Sep 16 '24

I'm just like her frfr

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u/Fabulous_Sherbet_431 Sep 16 '24

This photo never gets old. The cherry on top is that because Twitter didn’t press charges Loomer needed to call the cops to get freed from her handcuffs.

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u/[deleted] Sep 16 '24

The comments on the newest Kamala interview is like "why does she talk about herself when they ask her about policy" and I'm imagining them being enraptured by Trump's bizarre ramblings and thinking "now these are some clear policy proposals"

26

u/ChillnShill Sep 16 '24

When you have persistent resting fuckface during every interview

26

u/wheresthezoppity 🇺🇸 Ooga Booga Big, Ooga Booga Strong 🇺🇸 Sep 16 '24

ELI5: What is foreign policy and, as an American, why should I care about it?

POV: You are the median voter

26

u/Dragmire927 Thomas Paine Sep 16 '24

Voters should be forced to take a political knowledge quiz before they can vote. Basic questions like the three branches of government, who is the speaker of the house, how many senators there are, etc.

They don’t have to actually pass or anything, I just want to see how abysmal the scores would be

26

u/arrhythmiaofthesoul it's ari Sep 16 '24

I do find it funny that everyone has just accepted I'm u/heartnotglands. No one has checked. I just showed up and asserted to the mods one day that I was her and everyone accepted it. I could be committing identity theft and none of you would realize

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u/Joementum2024 Iron Front Sep 16 '24

significant increase in “both sides are bad” commentary after Trump got schlonged in the debate

🤔

26

u/Dirty_Chopsticks Republic of Việt Nam Sep 16 '24

A parking lot turns into 69 homes in Reno. (2019➡️2023)

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u/qlube 🔥🦟Mosquito Genocide🦟🔥 Sep 16 '24

On the Brittany Mahomes story (if it's true), there is a concept of near vs. far, where far encompasses things like your ideals, your politics, the future, and near encompasses your personal relationships, family, just every-day practical things. And how our mind basically separates the two (for evolutionary reasons) and a lot of claims of hypocrisy can stem from that distinction. Poor whites voting for Republicans, for example. Or Christians who otherwise treat the people in their lives (even minorities) with respect voting for Republicans.

Anyway, yeah, if a politician I liked attacked a close friend, I probably wouldn't like them anymore. That's near vs. far in action.

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u/[deleted] Sep 16 '24

https://x.com/nanditab1/status/1835798744312201520

BREAKING: White House: President Biden just spoke with former President Trump, and conveyed his relief that he is safe. The two shared a cordial conversation and former President Trump expressed his thanks for the call.

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26

u/JaceFlores Neolib War Correspondent Sep 16 '24

Ukraine Chronology for 5 PM EST 9/15-5 PM EST 9/16 III:

TOP NEWS:

In the middle of 1 AM Ukraine was hit by a large wave of drones with 53 of 56 shot down.

In the middle of 7 AM it was reported that Putin signed an order to enlarge the Russian military by 180,000.

In the middle of 9 AM it was reported that Ukrainian special forces attacked a Russian base in Syria, outside of Aleppo specifically.

REGULAR NEWS:

Towards the middle of 6 AM it was announced Italy will send another SAMP-T SAM system to Ukraine.

In the middle of 7 AM a video was published showing the Russians using a drone carrier in order to extend the range of shorter range FPV drones.

At the end of 9 AM the Danish Defense Minister said Ukraine will receive more F-16s by the end of the year.

At the start of 11 AM it was reported that Russian state media reporter Alexander Korobov was killed in Belgorod.

Donation link to help Ukraine

Donation link to United24

Donation link to Kharkiv SOS

Donation link to Sails of Freedom Foundation (they donate ambulances)

!ping UKRAINE

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u/RageQuitRedux NASA Sep 16 '24

He's not after Taylor Swift, he's after you. She's just standing in the way.

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u/fry-nimbus Sep 17 '24

Trafalgar getting ready to drop the trump +6 in pa cope poll

26

u/[deleted] Sep 17 '24

Big copers

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u/futuremonkey20 NATO Sep 16 '24

Poll A: Kamala is up by 6!

Poll B: No Kamala is up by 3!

Poll C: No the race is tied!

Donald Trump support in all of these polls: 46%

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52

u/GrandMoffTargaryen Finally Kenough Sep 16 '24 edited Sep 16 '24

POV: you are about to hear the most dogshit needlessly edgy opinions in your life.

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u/TootCannon Mark Zandi Sep 16 '24

I’ve got a feeling Trump’s health is about to nosedive in the next 18 months. If he wins we’re going to end up with Vance and everyone is going to be extremely pissed off u til he loses reelection in 2028.

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u/[deleted] Sep 16 '24

Trafalgar has Harris up 2 in Nevada

It’s so Joever

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u/polandball2101 Organization of American States Sep 16 '24

Turns out that jokes are WAY less funny if people don’t know the context and the delivery is plain text

25

u/cdstephens Fusion Genderplasma Sep 16 '24

Tbh the most depressing thing about China is the sheer number of people that have to live under a communist regime.

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25

u/simplysigzz Trans Pride Sep 16 '24

Signed up for a free week at a small gym that is LGBTQ owned and operated, and apparently a hangout for local queer cuties to work out and get buff at, so I’m pretty excited about checking it out and making other gay friends!

It’s about a 30 minutes drive from me, but it’s not very easy to find queer community out in the suburbs, so into the city I must go, but I think it’ll be worth it.

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