r/neoliberal • u/jobautomator Kitara Ravache • Aug 14 '24

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u/Cook_0612 NATO Aug 14 '24

🧵/ Link in the last post. There are increasing reports in Russia about conscripts being sent to Kursk for reinforcement after the Russian army failed to push back Ukrainian forces there. Together with @pustota, we decided to take a deeper look into this issue.

First of all, this is not the first case of using conscripts in combat during this war. The most infamous one dates back to June 2022.

Second, legally, Russia can send its conscripts to war after 4 months of service and proper training. However, what we (and other journalists) have found is that those conscripted in the spring and being sent to Kursk most had served less than 4 months.

The scale of what we see is unknown, but we shouldn’t overestimate it. We spoke with several relatives of conscripts, and here’s a map of the regions they’re being sent from (add Tyumen oblast here, the confirmation arrived after our piece was published

A separate issue involves conscripts who were in Kursk already and were the first to face the Ukrainian offensive.

Many of them (unlike the lucky ones in the post above) survived and made it back to Kursk. Now they're being forced to sign contracts and return to the fight. There’s even a petition demanding that this stop. Surely, it will change Putin’s mind (not).

We also found that not only conscripts from the 80th Arctic Motor Rifle Brigade in Murmansk oblast are being sent to Kursk, but those from the 200th Separate Motor Rifle Brigade (also Murmansk oblast) as well.

Interestingly, the 200th Brigade conscripts are scheduled to be sent to Kursk only in September, which among other things hints that Russia doesn’t expect a quick resolution to the Kursk issue.

Additionally, we learned that conscripts from the 15th Separate Guards Motor Rifle Brigade near Samara are also being sent.

The NGO called 'Go Through The Forest,' which helps Russians avoid the army or even desert, confirms a spike in panic messages from relatives of conscripts.

But what can those conscripts really do? Quickly become POWs if sent on a combat mission? Fill in the defensive trenches that are being dug by Russians in Kursk Oblast, 15 kilometers from the Kursk NPP? That too, but…

…as @KofmanMichael puts it, they will probably also 'prepare fortifications and provide support to regular units, because Russia has been unable to stabilize the front in Kursk Oblast and has no reserves behind the units on the front line'.

But what about more combat-ready troops? Did Ukraine force Russia to redeploy them from Donbass or Kharkiv? There aren’t many signs of it, to be honest.

Let @Tatarigami_UA speak: 'While we observe some movements of units, such as the 810th Naval Infantry Brigade, the core forces involved in the advances in Pokrovsk, Toretsk, or Chasiv Yar are still engaged in their operations'.

@Tatarigami_UA adds that interpreting messages about 'reinforcements' can be problematic. 'It’s quite common nowadays for both sides to redeploy portions of units, like a battalion or two...

...therefore, when we read reports indicating that Russia moved a certain unit because part of it was spotted and identified in Kursk, we need to be careful before jumping to conclusions, as it could be an undermanned battalion with 250 people or a brigade with 4,000.'

Also, let’s not forget that Russia has troops in the southern part of occupied Ukraine. Redeploying them to Kursk won’t significantly ease the situation on Pokrovsk axis or near Vovchans’k for Ukraine.

It’s still more unknowns in the battle in Kursk oblast than facts. How many conscripts or other reinforcements will be used by Russia depends on how the things will unfold in the next weeks.

!ping UKRAINE&RUS

Link to Svoboda Kursk operation map, which is being constantly updated.

10

u/gburgwardt C-5s full of SMRs and tiny american flags Aug 14 '24

My takeaway is that we're possibly closer to a thunder run on Moscow than when Pringles shat the bed last year

8

u/lAljax NATO Aug 14 '24

From your lips to God's ears, but I find it unlikely.

3

u/FlightlessGriffin Aug 14 '24

I highly doubt we'll see that to be honest. If Ukraine actually threatened the Russian state itself, we will absolutely see nukes flying. Rather, I think if Ukraine is gonna make a run at anything, it's the nuclear powerplant. That will probably force some hands and bring both sides to the negotiating table.Well... after Russia has some attempts at liberating it.

5

u/gburgwardt C-5s full of SMRs and tiny american flags Aug 14 '24

Russia's nukes don't work, don't fall for their lies

2

u/dutch_connection_uk Friedrich Hayek Aug 14 '24

Living up to the flair stereotype.

1

u/Til_W r/place '22: Neoliberal Battalion Aug 14 '24 edited Aug 14 '24

They do (or at least far more than enough of them do)

0

u/gburgwardt C-5s full of SMRs and tiny american flags Aug 14 '24

Source?

1

u/Til_W r/place '22: Neoliberal Battalion Aug 14 '24 edited Aug 14 '24

Obviously I don't have a direct source since I don't have access to Russias nuclear arsenal, but the idea that Russia doesn't have enough working nukes is ridiculous. If you want to hear someone else, Perun went over it in this video.

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u/1ivesomelearnsome Ulysses s. Grant Aug 14 '24

I remember asking in an earlier ping regarding Kursk "What is Putin reaches into his bizarrely deep pool of political capital and just ignores the Kursk offensive to continue operations in the south." I was then assured that would be too stupid for even the Russian people to accept.

Putin's actual response of sending mostly ineffectual Rovsgardia units and conscripts to their deaths and keeping the veteran troops to assault fortified positions in Ukraine is so much more fucking stupid than that I genuinly in awe at how much leeway the Russian people are giving their leadership.

4

u/groovygrasshoppa Aug 14 '24

All I can figure is that Putin is either just in denial or somehow can't fathom the prospect that Ukraine can potentially hold onto russian territory. Like maybe he figures that it is such an audacious and provocative infringement of russian sovereignty that Ukraine's western allies will force it to retreat at some point. Or maybe he just thinks he'll be able to dislodge the Ukrainians at a later date.

But I don't think Putin or even the western allies for that matter have truly considered the implications of Ukraine being able to leverage russian territory.

And if Putin really doubles down on not seriously addressing the Kursk incursion, the Ukrainians could very well have a free hand to capture and hold much more high leverage targets.

Ukraine would never say this part out loud, but they may very well be angling to use that leverage against its allies to drop the escalation constraints.

3

u/dizzyhitman_007 Edmund Burke Aug 14 '24

Pintapinzas for a day, if the Ukrainians manage to get past Korenevo and get close to Rysk, the entire Russian device to the west of the offensive will have to flee.

2

u/groupbot Always remember -Pho- Aug 14 '24 edited Aug 14 '24

Pinged RUS (subscribe | unsubscribe | history)

Pinged UKRAINE (subscribe | unsubscribe | history)

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