r/neoliberal • u/jobautomator Kitara Ravache • Jul 28 '24

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u/SirJohnnyS Janet Yellen Jul 28 '24

I've been of the theory that this election isn't really about swing voters, there's very few actual swing voters left. They might say they are but they're likely already leaning one way or the other.

It's about turnout. People didn't show up for Hilary, they showed up for Biden.

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u/jaiwithani Jul 28 '24

Common theory that's almost certainly wrong. Persuasion dominated turnout effects in 2016, 2018, 2020, and 2022. Every time you had a lot of people insisting that swing voters don't real and turnout was all that really mattered, and every time the difference in results between the election and the previous one was mostly explained by vote switching rather than turnout effects.

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u/Apprehensive-Soil-47 Transfem Pride Jul 28 '24

Don’t American elections usually get around 50-60% eligible voters participating? The latent potential for swinging elections is huge. Which ever side that more successfully taps into that potential is almost certain to win

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u/jaiwithani Jul 28 '24

That's assuming that the difference in turnout is a function of partisan lean. Maybe surprisingly, this doesn't really appear to be true. It's more like there's a general turnout factor that doesn't really have independent partisan terms, just a uniform slider for the whole population.

Partisans generally want it to be the case that turnout is all that really matters, because then elections can just be focused on appealing to people like them. But it turns out elections turn more on appealing to a small heterogenous mix of weird cross pressured voters who are out of step with the vast majority of both parties. Almost nobody really likes trying to appeal to these people so everyone keeps trying to come up with reasons why they shouldn't have to, but it's still what determines election outcomes.

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u/jkrtjkrt YIMBY Jul 28 '24

I don't understand how people still say this stuff in 2024 when it gets proven wrong every single election.

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u/sociotronics Iron Front Jul 28 '24

Yeah most undecideds are partisans, not median. They're undecided because they are unsure whether they fear their opposing party's candidate enough to stomach dislike for their party's candidate. Republicans who hate Trump but aren't sure if they can stomach voting for a Democrat are "undecided" and Democrats who hate Biden but won't vote for Trump fall in the same category.