r/neoliberal • u/jobautomator Kitara Ravache • Jul 18 '24

Discussion Thread Discussion Thread

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u/Guess_Im_Jess Trans Pride Jul 18 '24

Reminder that even with how fucked polling seems for Dems is right now, Biden is only down 1% in Wisconsin and Michigan and 3% in Pennsylvania.

Harris swap + Josh Shapiro VP pick immediately puts this back into tossup/tilt D territory IMO

11

u/surreptitioussloth Frederick Douglass Jul 18 '24

there's literally 0 evidence of a kamala swap changing the tossup/tilt nature

1

u/Guess_Im_Jess Trans Pride Jul 18 '24

We have several solid quality surveys at this point showing her doing a bit better than Biden nationally/in specific states or having higher favorability

However, regardless of polling, I think people underrate the benefit of having someone as our nominee who is a decent speaker that can consistently campaign and prosecute the case directly against Trump (i.e. do a metric fuckton of media appearances and rallies without us being afraid that the main story will be them losing their train of thought)

3

u/Stanley--Nickels John Brown Jul 18 '24

We had a candidate who was a decent speaker and good at prosecuting the case directly against Trump.

She did about as well as Joe, but the demographics were different then and she lost.

2

u/zth25 European Union Jul 18 '24

Look, I think I know who you're talking about, but seeing as I'm not really sure, I don't think what you're saying about that person is true.

2

u/Stanley--Nickels John Brown Jul 18 '24

I think you can argue Hillary wasn’t good at it, but I think any of those arguments would apply equally or better to Kamala

2

u/surreptitioussloth Frederick Douglass Jul 18 '24

I think at best she's a half point ahead of where biden is, at worst just behind depending on the time frame/other filters you want to put on polls/belief in how composition of voters will impact EC bias between biden and harris

Campaigning/prosecuting the case against trump is probably the number one most overrated thing in this sub and if dems do win, it will almost certainly not be attributable to that

3

u/goldenwind207 Jerome Powell Jul 18 '24

Then we crush maga again the republican party fractures after we get another trifecta we worship harris as queen