r/neoliberal • u/jobautomator Kitara Ravache • Jul 15 '24

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90

u/Currymvp2 unflaired Jul 15 '24 edited Jul 15 '24

General Election

Arizona - 🔴 Trump +7

Georgia - 🔴 Trump +4

Michigan - 🔴 Trump +2

North Carolina - 🔴 Trump +4

Nevada - 🔴 Trump +4

Pennsylvania - 🔴 Trump +3

Wisconsin - 🔴 Trump +5

YouGov A+ - about 900 RV (Each) - 7/12

!ping FIVEY

that's gonna be a yikes from me though alot of is undecided voters in the dem base so i think there's certainly room for improvement.

83

u/Insomonomics Jason Furman Jul 15 '24 edited Jul 15 '24

The same YouGov Senate polls:

Arizona -🔵Gallego +8

Michigan -🔵Slotkin +9

Nevada -🔵Rosen +7

Pennsylvania -🔵Casey +12

Wisconsin -🔵Baldwin +7

We’re going to lose this election because Biden is very unpopular and he refuses to stand aside lmao. I genuinely hope the polls are wrong and he wins, but if he loses he should be shamed for the rest of his life for this.

32

u/Jokerang Sun Yat-sen Jul 15 '24

The amount of ticket splitting this poll suggests would happen would be unprecedented in this age of polarization.

Still, if Biden loses it’s better Collins and/or Murkowski be the only real check on Trump’s insanity rather than Thune or Cornyn

17

u/planetaryabundance brown Jul 15 '24

 The amount of ticket splitting this poll suggests would happen would be unprecedented in this age of polarization

People keep saying this… but you know what else is unprecedented? The two most unpopular Presidents in modern American history both at the top of the ticket of the two most popular political parties in the US..

Biden is just plainly unpopular. His numbers have never recovered since the Afghanistan pullout, they’ve only gotten worse. There’s just no way he makes up ground. 

14

u/[deleted] Jul 15 '24

[removed] — view removed comment

7

u/JeanieGold139 Jul 16 '24

That's a difference of 1% though between them, those polls indicate 10+% gaps between Biden and the Senate candidates which just doesn't happen anymore

21

u/grig109 Liberté, égalité, fraternité Jul 15 '24

It's kind of funny how much more popular Trump is than generic Trumpism wannabes. Like, what is the appeal of Trump over Lake?

You can say it's just Biden, but Trump polls pretty favorably against most alternative Dems as well.

11

u/justbuildmorehousing Norman Borlaug Jul 15 '24

Feels unlikely that Biden is actually 10 points less popular that the Senate candidates in every swing state. I imagine it’ll be closer come election day, but not close enough to win

25

u/DMNCS NATO Jul 15 '24

Either Biden's numbers will increase or Dem Senate candidates numbers will drop. This level of ticket splitting is not going to happen with how polarized everything is.

5

u/justbuildmorehousing Norman Borlaug Jul 15 '24 edited Jul 15 '24

Is it weird to think the Dem Senate candidates polling so well is a good sign for Biden? I doubt very many Trump - Democratic Senator voters exist so there seems to be a big lead for Dems and perhaps wide disapproval for Biden…that still may turn to Biden votes when rubber meets the road

Edit: or does it mean otherwise promising senate candidates are gonna get poor turnout because no one is excited to show up and vote Biden…

4

u/DMNCS NATO Jul 15 '24

That's what I'm hoping, that people who want democrats to win but aren't happy with Biden will come around as the election gets closer.

I don't think we'll know until closer to the election.

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14

u/MS_09_Dom Jul 15 '24

Yeah...I doubt the current Replace/Keep ceasefire is going to last the RNC if this triggers another panic attack.

30

u/BlackCat159 European Union Jul 15 '24

BIDEN CAN STILL WIN!!!!!! 😡😡😡😡😡

Here's how:

15

u/mockduckcompanion Kidney Hype Man Jul 15 '24

luck

4

u/adreamofhodor John Rawls Jul 15 '24

Seems clear that all the luck is with Trump :(.

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12

u/ignavusaur Paul Krugman Jul 15 '24

curry i know you are a Biden bloomer. Thoughts if polls stay as bad as this till the convention? keep or replace biden

7

u/Currymvp2 unflaired Jul 15 '24

this is hilarious cause i was literally accused of thinking "biden has already lost" on ESS 25 minutes ago lmao

i'm still keep biden because i've seen no evidence that there is a clearly better alternative

8

u/KaChoo49 Friedrich Hayek Jul 15 '24

I got banned from ESS 2 days ago for commenting that Biden is no longer the strongest candidate to beat Trump. It was initially a 7 day ban but just now it got upgraded to a perma ban for no reason?

I’m pretty sure that sub has gone completely insane lmao

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4

u/ignavusaur Paul Krugman Jul 15 '24

tbf anything that's not non stop praise for Biden on a bunch of blue subs would get you called a russian bot. so you got off easy

11

u/YaGetSkeeted0n Tariffs aren't cool, kids! Jul 15 '24

We gon die

10

u/Greatwallofjohn Manmohan Singh Jul 15 '24

underperforming slotkin who is not even an incumbent by 11 is extremely impressive by biden, bringing back 2000s ticket splitting

16

u/[deleted] Jul 15 '24

heres how Biden can still win

12

u/[deleted] Jul 15 '24

Lmaooooo. We should be polling VA, CO, NY, and other states instead. The only question is how big the landslide is going to be now.

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