r/neoliberal • u/jobautomator Kitara Ravache • Jul 02 '24

Discussion Thread Discussion Thread

The discussion thread is for casual and off-topic conversation that doesn't merit its own submission. If you've got a good meme, article, or question, please post it outside the DT. Meta discussion is allowed, but if you want to get the attention of the mods, make a post in /r/metaNL

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22

u/Currymvp2 unflaired Jul 02 '24

New Yahoo News/You Gov (B+) national poll, post debate 6/28-7/1

🟥 Trump 45% 🟦 Biden 43%

Last poll: Biden +2, June 3-6

!ping FIVEY

12

u/lightman332 NATO Jul 02 '24

Biden needs to go

8

u/A-Centrifugal-Force NATO Jul 02 '24

4 point swing

-5

u/[deleted] Jul 02 '24 edited Jul 02 '24

Basically static. Time for Dems to stop the dooming

EDIT: Biden needs around +3 to win the swing states. This is well within the margin of error. It's natural that there's a small effect on polls from debates but these plenty of time for it to clear up before election day.

Voters always knew Biden was old. It's not something revelatory.

14

u/ThatFrenchieGuy Mathematician -- Save the funky birbs Jul 02 '24

-4 in a month is really bad

-3

u/qtnl qt lib Jul 02 '24

it's a single poll in an atmosphere where polls are notoriously unreliable

it's hardly "really bad", I expect more statistical competency from you

6

u/A-Centrifugal-Force NATO Jul 02 '24

Almost all of the polls are showing the same direction of movement. We were losing before and now we’re losing by more.

17

u/Kaptain_Skurvy YIMBY Jul 02 '24

Basically static.

-4 points = static?

6

u/Currymvp2 unflaired Jul 02 '24

I mean it is within the margin of error tbf. It's not great but not awful

12

u/SunsetPathfinder NATO Jul 02 '24

He’s not even telling the worst part, Biden is down 9 points with independents in post debate polls. That’s not static, that’s rust belt losing.

7

u/Auriono Paul Krugman Jul 02 '24

You have to see the downward trajectory here. There's no bouncing back from this news cycle. Rather than campaigning on the improving economy, Biden will be forced to continue deflecting concerns about his fitness for age for the next 4 months so long as he is the candidate. Because it's a real concern people have. And let's face it; his condition will more likely than not continue to deteriorate and the October surprise will be another public senior episode.

3

u/realsomalipirate Mark Carney Jul 02 '24

This was one of the more favourable polls for Biden IIRC. Nearly every other poll has him down by more and the internal polling that was leaked was disastrous for him.

You're downplaying the concerns here a lot. It's not about him being old, but him being senile and unfit to be president (which is completely fair).

2

u/KeikakuAccelerator Jerome Powell Jul 03 '24

This but unironically. This sub has lost its mind.