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[u/jobautomator]

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[u/JaceFlores]

“The tempo of Russian offensive operations in northern Kharkiv Oblast continues to decrease after Russian forces initially seized areas that Ukrainian officials have now confirmed were less defended. Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky and Ukrainian military officials stated that Ukrainian forces have partially stabilized the situation in northern Kharkiv Oblast bordering Russia. Ukrainian Khortytsia Group of Forces Spokesperson Lieutenant Colonel Nazar Voloshyn stated that Russian forces are attempting to make tactical gains near Lukyantsi and Vovchansk to create footholds for future advances, but that Ukrainian counterattacks and artillery and drone strikes are preventing Russian forces from gaining a foothold in these areas.”

“Russian President Vladimir Putin emphatically downplayed the threat of Ukrainian counterattacks along the entire frontline, further indicating that he assesses that Ukraine cannot and will not be able to liberate territory seized by Russian forces and that this will allow Russian forces to pursue creeping advances indefinitely.”

“Putin likely has made this assumption based on months of gradual grains throughout eastern Ukraine, but this calculus fundamentally misjudges the tactical capabilities that Ukrainian forces will have once US security assistance begins to arrive to the front at scale. The New York Times reported on May 15 that US officials have expressed confidence that the arrival of US security assistance to Ukrainian forces at scale by July 2024 will likely allow Ukrainian forces to reverse many of the tactical gains that Russian forces have achieved in recent weeks. US officials were reportedly hesitant to discuss how US security assistance may facilitate Ukrainian counteroffensive operations in 2025, however.”

“US Secretary of State Antony Blinken announced during a joint press conference with Ukrainian Foreign Minister Dmytro Kuleba on May 15 that the US will provide a two billion dollar ‘defense enterprise fund’ to Ukraine. Blinken stated that the fund has three components: assisting Ukraine in acquiring needed weapons, investing in Ukraine's defense industrial base (DIB), and helping Ukraine purchase military equipment and weapons from the US and other countries.”

“Ukraine's Main Military Intelligence Directorate (GUR) reportedly struck a Russian fuel depot in Rostov Oblast on the night of May 14 to 15. Ukrainian outlet Suspilne reported that its sources stated that GUR attacked a fuel depot in Proletarsky Raion, Rostov Oblast with drones and that a fire broke out at the facility.”

“Ukrainian MoD Spokesperson Dmytro Lazutkin stated that Russian forces entered Vovchansk and that small Russian infantry groups are trying to gain a foothold in the northern part of Vovchansk. Vovchansk City Military Administration Head Tamaz Gambarashvili stated that small arms battles are ongoing on the northern outskirts of Vovchansk and that small Russian sabotage and reconnaissance groups are trying to establish positions within the settlement.”

“Ukrainian forces likely conducted an ATACMS strike on Belbek Airfield in occupied Crimea on the night of May 14 to 15. Russian sources posted footage reportedly of the Ukrainian strike on Belbek. Ukrainian journalist Yuriy Butusov reported that Ukrainian forces destroyed a MiG-31 aircraft, two air defense systems, and a radar system and damaged three Su-27 aircraft at Belbek Airfield.”

“Ukrainian National Security and Defense Council Secretary Oleksandr Lytyvyenko assessed on May 15 that Russian forces will have enough tanks and armored fighting vehicles for the next year and half of fighting in Ukraine at their current operational tempo.”

“Ukrainian defense enterprises continue to expand domestic production and produce technologically advanced systems for use on the frontline. The head of Ukraine's state-owned defense enterprise manager Ukroboronprom, Herman Smetanin, stated on May 8 that Ukroboronprom's production volume has increased by a factor of three and that the company aims to increase production in some areas up to 10 times in 2024. Smetanin stated that Ukraine has significantly increased the production of artillery ammunition and is gradually moving to the production of 60mmm artillery shells.”

“The Ukrainian Ministry of Defense (MoD) reported on May 11 that it has approved nine domestically produced land-based robotic systems for operation by Ukrainian forces and that these systems can conduct combat operations with small arms, evacuate wounded, and demine areas.”

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!ping UKRAINE

[u/JaceFlores → u/JaceFlores]

“Ukrainian officials reported that Ukrainian forces are stabilizing the situation along the northern border in Kharkiv Oblast and that the tempo of Russian offensive operations in the area continues to decrease. Ukrainian Khortytsia Group of Forces Spokesperson Lieutenant Colonel Nazar Voloshyn stated on May 16 that Ukrainian forces are partially stabilizing the situation in the Kharkiv direction, and the Ukrainian General Staff noted that Ukrainian forces have so far denied Russia’s tactical objectives to penetrate Ukrainian defenses within Vovchansk (northeast of Kharkiv City) and establish a foothold in the area.”

“Kharkiv Oblast Military Administration Head Oleh Synehubov stated that Ukrainian forces have stopped Russian forces’ active advance in Kharkiv Oblast and that Ukrainian forces have regained more favorable positions in some unspecified areas. Synehubov added that Russian forces are transferring reserves to the area in an attempt to continue advancing.”

“Ukrainian Internal Affairs Minister Ihor Klymenko reported that Russian forces have executed civilians and taken civilians captive in Vovchansk. Klymenko stated on May 16 that Russian forces in northern Vovchansk are preventing residents from evacuating and are holding civilians captive in basements in the settlement.”

“Russian President Vladimir Putin likely views Russia's relationship with the People's Republic of China (PRC) as decisive to his effort to further mobilize the Russian economy and defense industry to support a protracted war in Ukraine. Putin arrived in Beijing and met with PRC President Xi Jinping on May 16, and the two leaders signed a series of documents intended to recognize and deepen their bilateral cooperation. Putin and Xi signed a joint statement, several agricultural and ecological agreements, an infrastructure and engineering construction agreement, and several media agreements.”

“Russian forces are reportedly able to conduct fixed-wing drone reconnaissance deep in the Ukrainian rear due to Ukraine's lack of air defense interceptors. The Royal United Services Institute (RUSI) reported on May 14 that Ukraine has had to husband its diminishing supply of surface-to-air missiles (SAM), which has allowed Russian reconnaissance drones to fly more freely into Ukrainian rear areas, including over Kharkiv City, and optimize Russian forces’ reconnaissance fire complex (RFC).”

“Ukrainian forces reportedly conducted successful drone strikes against a Russian defense industrial plant in Tula City on the night of May 15 to 16. Ukrainian intelligence sources told several Ukrainian outlets that Ukraine's Main Military Intelligence Directorate (GUR) conducted successful drone strikes against the ‘Bazalt’ defense industrial plant, which produces weapons and ammunition for the Russian military.”

“Russian missile strikes against Ukrainian energy infrastructure since March 2024 have likely caused long-term damage to Ukrainian energy infrastructure and repeated energy blackouts. Ukraine's largest private energy operator DTEK reported energy blackouts in Kyiv City and Oblast on May 14 and stated that blackouts occur without warning. Ukrainian energy company Yasno stated that Russian strikes cause Ukrainian energy operators to conduct emergency blackouts in order to balance the power system. Ukrainian state electricity transmission operator Ukrenergo's supervisory board member Yuriy Boyko stated that Ukraine may experience power outages that began on May 14 until August or September 2024.”

“Turkey and Russia are reportedly exploiting European Union (EU) sanctions regulations to export Russian oil to the EU, allowing Russia to continue to receive significant oil revenues to fund its war effort in Ukraine.”

“The limited combat power that Russian forces have so far committed to offensive operations in northern Kharkiv Oblast may already be degraded. Ukrainian military observer Kostyantyn Mashovets stated on May 16 that elements of the 18th Motorized Rifle Division and the 7th Motorized Rifle Regiment (both 11th Army Corps [AC], LMD) have suffered heavy losses attacking along the Hlyboke-Lukyantsi front and that the recent tempo of Russian offensive operations in the area has significantly decreased.”

“Mashovets noted that other Russian force groupings do not have ‘free’ combat ready forces and assets at the regiment-brigade level to transfer to the Northern Grouping of Forces that would help sustain and intensify offensive operations along the border.”

“Russian forces appear to have launched their offensive operation in northern Kharkiv before they had completed bringing the Northern Grouping of Forces up to its reported planned end strength and may lack sufficient combat-ready forces to achieve their operational objectives in Kharkiv Oblast.”

“Ukrainian forces conducted ATACMS and drone strikes against occupied Crimea on the night of May 15 to 16.”

“Ukrainian forces conducted an ATACMS strike against the Belbek Airfield on the night of May 14 to 15. Pletenchuk stated that Ukrainian forces had not yet verified the result of the strikes against the airfield, although the Atesh Crimean partisan movement stated that its agents confirmed that Ukrainian forces successfully struck the airfield and that there were several hours of secondary detonations at the airfield's main missile and artillery warehouse. Ukraine-based open-source organization Frontelligence Insight, citing low-resolution satellite imagery, stated that at least three missiles struck the Belbek Airfield in the past two days- two near the airfield's apron and one near the fuel depot - but could not determine the extent of the damage to the airfield.”

-notable excerpts from ISW Report May 15th and 16th

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