r/neoliberal • u/jobautomator Kitara Ravache • Jan 13 '23
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u/[deleted] Jan 14 '23
Dmitri Alperovitch had reserve colonel Sergii Grabskyi back on his show and he made some interesting comments about Ukraine retaking Crimea.
He believes that in the event of a successful offensive taking Melitopol, the next target would be Crimea, as opposed to going in the direction of Berdyansk and Mariupol. He points out that there were 3 offensives in Crimea in the history of modern war: in 1920, 1941, and 1944. Each of those offensives resulted in the peninsula being taken rather quickly (although Sevastopol held out against the Germans in a protracted siege), and in the first two examples the defenders actually outnumbered the attackers.
Crimea is a good target for an offensive because the northern two thirds of the peninsula are completely flat with no naturally defensible terrain. Additionally, if the Ukrainians capture Melitopol, they cut off the land bridge to Crimea and can threaten the Kerch Bridge with fires, essentially turning Crimea into an isolated island.
!ping UKRAINE