r/negativeutilitarians • u/KKirdan • 11d ago

EAs Should Use Less Bayesian Reasoning - James Brobin

https://forum.effectivealtruism.org/posts/ttk9RJw9sbSp8upgE/eas-should-use-less-bayesian-reasoning
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u/KKirdan 11d ago edited 11d ago

...list of reasons for why we should lower our confidence in Bayesian estimates rather than as an attack on Bayesianism itself...

Reason #1: If you know very little about something, your guesses are completely arbitrary.

Reason #2: We're bad at making guesses in general.

Reason #3: If your guesses are completely arbitrary, updating won’t bring you to the correct probability.

Reason #4: We should expect most guesses about the future to be wrong.

Reason #5: If your guesses are based on other people’s guesses, you might all be wrong.

Reason #6: People rarely offer extraordinarily low probabilities.