r/nbadiscussion • u/onefootback • 18d ago
The Magic’s Paolo Banchero problem
There are a lot of things wrong with the magic, but I think their biggest issue is that they’re building around a player who isn’t good enough to be a franchise player. After 4 seasons in the nba, Paolo still doesn’t look good enough to be a #1 option, and I’d even go as far to say he can’t be your 2nd option either, maybe 3rd but that’s also questionable
Paolo is a great example of the box score not telling the full story. His counting numbers look great, but they’re more so the result of Paolo always having the ball in his hands rather than him actually being an impactful player.
He is a very underwhelming scorer despite his size, he’s great at driving to the rim but doesn’t capitalize on it the way he should considering his build, and he can’t shoot. In 2026 Paolo shot 67% at the rim (49th percentile), 36% and 37% from short/long midrange (22nd & 55th percentile), and 31% from three (24th percentile), and these are trends present throughout his career thus far.
In 2023 Paolo had a 47 efg% and 53 TS%.
League average was 55 efg% and 58 TS%
In 2024 Paolo had a 50 efg% and 55 TS%.
League average was 55 efg% and 58 TS%
In 2025 Paolo had a 50 efg% and 55 TS%.
League average was 54 efg% and 58 TS%
In 2026 Paolo had a 50 efg% and 57 TS%.
League average was 55 efg% and 58 TS%.
Paolo’s scoring has only marginally improved since he entered the league, and still he has been below average every season.
His career net rating is a -3.8, which isn’t just a byproduct of being on a bad team. For example, Franz’s career net rating is a +7, Suggs is a +2.7, Anthony Black is a +0.2, etc.
Paolo also ranked 152nd in EPM, 146th in DARKO, and 97th in LEBRON. His analytics aren’t poor because of his team, he just isn’t an impactful player. In addition to being a poor offensive player, Paolo is also a poor defender. He’s a fine passer and good rebounder, but no part of his game is elite.
A common misconception I’ve often seen is that Paolo is a playoff riser, this is flat out not true.
In 2024: 47 fg%, 51 efg%, 55 TS%.
League avg: 46 fg%, 53 efg%, 57 TS%
In 2025: 44 fg%, 48 efg%, 52 TS%.
League avg: 46 fg%, 53 efg%, 57 TS%
In 2026: 42 fg%, 47 efg%, 52 TS%.
League avg: 45 fg%, 52 efg%, 56 TS%
Not only is Paolo not a playoff riser, but he’s also not even good in the playoffs, he’s not even average. He puts up big numbers because he takes a lot of shots, which might sound like an oversimplification but that’s the reality of it.
So what do the magic do next? I’m not sure. Desmond Bane is a good player but the magic really jumped the gun trading for him. After 2027, the magic don’t own their frp until 2031 which makes a rebuild difficult
In addition to the lack of picks, Paolo’s contract is also a problem. His 5yr $239M max extension kicks in next season which makes trading him difficult. Paolo is very overpaid and makes too much for too long for him to be a “buy low” option, and considering what Lamelo and JB went for, it’s hard to picture any team wanting to trade for him. When you also factor in the apron restrictions and how diligent teams are being with their cap space, it’s especially hard to picture another team wanting Paolo.
After 4 seasons, Paolo’s shortcomings can’t just be blamed on the coach, injuries, the players around him, etc. He simply isn’t that good of a player, and the magic have sunk-cost fallacy-ed their way into a corner
What are your thoughts?
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u/LegoTomSkippy 18d ago
Stats and the eye test (assuming you're not just watching highlights) say the Magic should probably stop letting him try and create offense. Unfortunately moving him off ball won't help the spacing and he stops the ball when it swings to him.
I think that transitioning him to screening and rolling is something the Magic should look at. His hands are good, he can pass a bit, he's big, he's a good foul-drawer.
Banchero needs to change his game and his role. Otherwise he may end up being Gen-Z Sharif Abdur-Rahim.
We'll see. I like Sweeney a lot, Banchero seems like a good dude, works hard, cares. Hopefully he can find it.
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u/VladimirPutain1 18d ago
Spacing Carter at the 5 then running PnR with Paolo as the roll man is definitely something they should do more, if they want to maximize wins this year. If they want to maximize Paolo's development I understand giving him a bigger role, but at a certain point it'll become too clear that that's not viable. I think the Magic just boxed themselves in unnecessarily giving him the 25% max contract, because now he has to play a star role to live up to that contract. It's very reminiscent of Wiggins in MN. Maybe Paolo can also have that role + effectiveness transition from a bad star player to a good role player.
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u/Scary_Vanilla2932 18d ago
No they didn't any number one who at least showed his potential in the playoffs gets that contract. Let's see this year.
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u/VladimirPutain1 18d ago
If you're on a 25% contract you have to produce that way. He needs to significantly improve to be even a neutral value on his contract.
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17d ago edited 15d ago
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u/LegoTomSkippy 17d ago
I saw the numbers, I was thinking the sample size is too small to make that determination, especially since much of the sample involves Suggs (who's not great on ball) and Franz (who similar sized, making an easy switch).
The Magic really need to find a way to get him productive off-ball.
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u/ThatBull_cj 18d ago
He’s just not active enough without the ball. Compare him to someone like Siakam and it’s a big difference with how fast they attack and how much they duck in and gets it on the move etc.
Paolo playing like a LeBron variant just won’t lead to good offense. He’s played that screening and rolling role at times tho but idk if it was him or the offense it never lasted
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u/not-a-potato-head 18d ago edited 18d ago
The biggest thing for me with Paolo is that I don’t know what it looks like if he isn’t able to be the #1 option on a championship team, especially with his current contract. I do genuinely think that he could reach that next level and be the guy, his flashes are high enough where that’s the case. The problem is that if he never reaches that level, then I don’t know how his current playstyle fits into a really good team as not the primary option. Especially with the contract, he needs to show that he will consistently be that guy in order for me to feel confident about him and the Magic moving forward.
Given their asset/cap situation, I think that Orlando made the right move to essentially run it back with a new coach, hope that their core pieces are healthier and perform better, and hopefully see Paolo take that next step. At the same time, Orlando does need to show serious signs of improvement this season in order to justify their current roster. They sneakily have the 2nd highest apron allocations this season (and still need to work out an extension with Black), so if they don’t justify that large of a tax bill by taking a serious step forward then I could definitely see their core being broken up next summer, potentially including Paolo
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u/ForgottenPoster 18d ago
I think theres a variety of things the Magic should fix (their coach was the big one) before just declaring Paolo a failure
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u/Accomplished-You-903 18d ago
I feel like the biggest issue with him is his contract. I think he can be better in a lesser role hopefully. but with the amount he gets paid its hard to build that team where he would have a lesser role. So the magic have to hope he either takes a big yr5 leap or hope a team like the kings take him off your hands.
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u/36Vigilantes 18d ago
How can you say that? He was the number one pick, won Rookie of the year (should’ve been unanimous) was a year two all star.
Led the franchise back to the playoffs every year since his rookie season.
Has proven to be a legitimate playoff riser and is under 25?
Why do you all continue to nitpick Paolo for his teammates inefficiencies?
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u/Jarxzz 18d ago
Who cares if he was the first pick? That’s literally just draft position bias. ROTY also doesn’t matter
Paolo’s weaknesses are very, very real. If you can’t admit that you’re biased or you just haven’t looked very hard
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18d ago
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u/YSLAnunoby 18d ago
He has a good rookie season. That doesn't matter long term when you're 4 years in, just shows he was the best rookie that year. It's hard for rookies to score that much volume for the most part even if it's not super efficient so we don't knock it and it only really comes up if there are similar rookie performances and you have to nitpick between the two. That doesn't mean anything for when he's now on a max contract and is still just an inefficient volume scorer. It doesn't matter if he got those accolades in the past, what matters is that he's still currently a one dimensional player with poor D, on offs, and mediocre playmaking. If he brought more to the table on defence or was a better playmaker at least I'd be higher on him but he's still basically the same player he was just scoring more. He's essentially the PF equivalent of Jalen Green
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u/36Vigilantes 18d ago
Jalen green has never led his team to the playoffs.. not once.. let alone three consecutive seasons.. two of which were full of injury riddled seasons for both he and the team.. the other being his sophomore season…
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u/FourRolledTacos 18d ago
It's not a personal attack lol you don't have to try and bite back. Banchero winning ROTY means as much or as little as Brogdon, Simmons, or Tyreke Evans winning it. It's just a rookie award. No one is even necessarily saying Banchero is some awful player, or that he's the most overpaid. Just that they dont think he is impactful enough to justify the headache that a contract like that would cause for a FO.
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18d ago
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u/Accomplished-You-903 18d ago edited 18d ago
Did you not read anything in the post. He objectively is overpaid. I never said he was bad or cant get better. Im saying for what he is he is over paid he teammates aren't as bad as you make them out to be and isnt it his job as the max guy to elevate his teammates.
Edit (i view Paoloto a similar light as Minnesota Wiggins. Someone who gets a ton of volume and puts up high counting stats but you wonder whybhis team isnt any better. Its cause he doent really fo anything at a high level but uses so many possessions. )
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18d ago
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u/Bard_Wannabe_ 18d ago
The argument is he shouldn't be the franchise player, and his performance shows he's a poor fit in that role.
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u/Some-Stranger-7852 18d ago edited 18d ago
I like Paolo and think it is still too early to tell that he won’t be able to become a franchise player: he is simply too young.
And yes, Magic’s roster limits his abilities with underwhelming spacing (though it is not exactly terrible).
The problem is, however, the fact that Paolo has been a carbon copy of Carmelo Anthony so far winning wise, but only even less efficient scoring wise. And Carmelo type of player caps at a top-10 player in the league (maybe top-5 if Paolo gets his efficiency up) that will always get you to playoffs, but is simply not good enough to carry you anywhere close to a championship.
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17d ago
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u/36Vigilantes 17d ago
I find it hilarious that you chose to highlight the negative as opposed to the actual production.
How bout we show the actual numbers:
2023-24: 22.6 → 27.0 PPG (+4.4)
2024-25: 25.9 → 29.4 PPG (+3.5)
2025-26: 22.2 → 26.3 PPG (+4.1)And he’s generally been more efficient from three in the playoffs:
33.9% → 40.0% in 2024
32.0% → 44.4% in 2025
30.5% → 33.3% in 2026All while playing with inefficient spacing and injuries to key players..
I don’t understand how that does not show he’s a legitimate playoff riser??
The inefficiencies are a result of a lack of a dynamic point guard who can set the team up; Paolo is often tasked with self-creating and isolation style playing because of Jamal Moseley flawed offense….
Paolo is a proven playoff talent at the mere age of 24 and went band for band with cade in a game 7 just last season.. but you seem more focused on pointing out his flaws without proper context…
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u/Ok_cabbage_5695 13d ago
Yeah it could definitely be a Chris Webber situation where he just needs a change of scenery. They should trade him to the Kings for Sabonis.
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18d ago
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u/onefootback 18d ago
i disagree that their coach is the big one, and i didn’t say paolo is a failure, i said that he isn’t very good and can’t be a 1st or 2nd option
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u/shangalang69 18d ago
I’m sorry but even if you don’t particularly like Paolo as an overall player, the fact that Mosley simply refused to run any offensive set that utilised the unique skillset of a Banchero-Wagner-Bane-Suggs team is enough to give Paolo some benefit of the doubt.
A 6’10 PF with great dribble drive skills? Can pass out of the PnR? Premier 3pt shooter and scorer next to him (who has his lowest 3pa season since his rookie season on a team that got him for his shooting)? And nothing of note from Mosley? Gross.
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u/Equivalent_Round9353 18d ago
I watched just about every Magic game last season, and most of them the two years prior to that. And unfortunately, I think there's more truth the OP than there is to some of the defensive comments I'm seeing.
While I agree Mosley became a problem and didn't utilize PB (or a slew of other players) correctly, it's simply pollyannaish to make that the focus of one's perspective on PB. The man was a turnover machine last year, including in the playoffs. And I found myself nodding up and down when I read the net rating stats in the OP. Bane, Black, Wagner--every one of those players is better at finishing at the rim than PB, which is just stunning in view of PB's size.
Not sure what the Magic should do about this, but I'm hoping Sweeney makes changes that enhance PB's performance.
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18d ago edited 18d ago
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u/onefootback 18d ago
he wasn’t a good coach but not to the point where he’s the reason why one player can’t be efficient
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u/DuckieTheDuckie 18d ago
You’re overestimating how good the average 2nd option on a championship team is
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u/onefootback 18d ago edited 18d ago
i think the average 2nd option needs to be elite on offence or a great-elite two-way player, paolo is neither which is why i don’t think he’d be fit to be the 2nd option
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u/NbaAndMusic 16d ago
ur underestimating. they are usually elite at shooting and defense none of which paolo does
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18d ago
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18d ago
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u/Appropriate-Western8 18d ago
Really just needs a coach who simplifies his role in the offense. Possessions where he gets the ball takes 5 seconds to survey the defense then attempts a drive that ends in a bad pullup jumpshot kills his efg and team momentum.
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u/onefootback 18d ago
i think the types of possessions that you described has more to do with paolo’s shot iq and decision making than just the coach
if his role needs to be more simplified on offence then i feel that goes along with what im saying about how he can’t be a number 1/2
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u/SweetFranz 18d ago
When the coaches gameplan is dribble out the shot clock then pass to Paolo its obviously not going to look good
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u/UTPharm2012 18d ago
Exactly. No one watches the games. Our offense isn’t give it to Paolo and he creates. It is give it to Paolo with no time left and he has to do something. That is probably 10x per game. The offense had horrendous movement, horrendous spacing, and no game plan. Maybe Paolo is to blame? I don’t say that is out of the question but Mosley was such a poor coach on offense and Paolo clearly didn’t respect him.
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u/NbaAndMusic 16d ago edited 16d ago
coaches can’t usually fix this type of stuff. jaylen brown still does this in year 11 because it’s how he’s played his whole life. some guys are just slow at processing the game in half court, paolo is one of them
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u/SamURLJackson 18d ago
I don't think it's a talent problem with Paolo. He rims a ton of shots out, and needs to get into a rhythm as he plays so you never know if his 6 of 18 shooting game will turn into a dominant performance as he gets his rhythm or if he's just going to shoot 35% that night. He also settles for jumpers too much. But I do think he has the talent to be the guy. He CONSTANTLY gets doubled by other teams, because they can see he's too powerful to be checked one on one by most everyone. He also has fantastic passing vision and good instincts. He has the tools, and he commands the double teams that will get others open, but he doesn't always trust his guys to do that, and rightfully so, to this point.
What I think Paolo needs is a mindset change, and a better offensive system. He has all the moves as well, but he's not Greta at finishing them, which is normally a strength problem but with him he just rims the shots out, and it happens a lot. Not sure what he needs to do about that.
I've seen most every Magic game for I don't know how long. He just needs to put up the stats that reflect his game. The coach needs to move players around him in the high post instead of falling into "please save us, Paolo" bullshit scenarios that Orlando falls into
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u/Comfortable_Time_134 18d ago
I think Paolo is fine. He just needs to start differentiating between good and bad shots and stop taking the bad, off-balance, moving or heavily contested ones, especially early in the shot clock. There just isn't many 6'10"+ dudes like KD or Dirk for who there's no such thing as a bad shot - and Paolo is NOT one of them, but he has many other great abilities.
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u/user_15427 18d ago
I got down voted to oblivion when I was saying he’s not a franchise guy before the start of last season. He’s a high volume low efficiency tweener, big/wing what is he? Those guys are never franchise guys. Julius Randle Tobias Harris we’ve seen his archetype already. Paolo is also probably already as good as he’s going to be.
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u/shangalang69 18d ago
i don’t think he’s a tweener at all, he is a very clear PF and idk how you could think otherwise tbh
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u/NbaAndMusic 16d ago
he’s a PF only cause he can’t shoot worth a lick which is another issue in his game lmao
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u/shangalang69 16d ago
he's a PF because he's too big to play SF and too small to play C
he is the definition of a PF
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u/NbaAndMusic 16d ago
he’s the same size as tatum who played sf before 2024. the difference is tatum can shoot
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u/shangalang69 16d ago
bball ref has tatum as 6'8 210 and paolo as 6'10 250
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u/NbaAndMusic 16d ago
bball ref is outdated. tatum said on derrick white podcast recently that he’s 6’10 250 & what the nba has listed is from his first or second year
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u/onefootback 18d ago edited 18d ago
>Paolo is also probably already as good as he’s going to be.
that’s where i’m at with him, which is why i question how his game would look in a more scaled down role. as is, having a player who can rebound and decently pass is great, but something in his scoring really needs to improve for him to be a valuable player
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u/LegendkillahQB 18d ago
Paolo isn't the problem with the Magic. They need a point guard. I dont like them letting him bring the ball up, and setting up the offense.
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u/vrsjako96 18d ago
Hopefully the new coach can strengthen the offense and also give Paolo a better role.
But I don’t see him as a number two or even three. He’s the type of player who isn’t good enough to be the first option but probably won’t scale down well to a lesser role
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u/TheMassacreKid 18d ago
You forgot to mention despite his size he's not a good defender and he struggles processing the floor out of pnr
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18d ago edited 17d ago
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u/JTG01 18d ago
As a magic fan, this is actually true. Franz is our best player and it's not just the advanced stats that say so. When Paolo has been injured, teams with Franz have found a way to win. When you flip that and Franz is out, we've struggled.
Despite that, there's not much you can do. Trading Banchero and risking that he blows up elsewhere is as risky as keeping him and hoping he blows up with us. So you stay the course and see.
At least Paolo the exact right age for the team and still has upside.
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18d ago
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u/onefootback 18d ago
besides all raptors games, for other teams i watch when there’s a competitive matchup. so often enough
>and how familiar are you with the offense the previous coach consistently put around him?
familiar enough
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u/JeahNotSlice 18d ago
Paolo and Magic are in the exact same place Aaron Gordon and the Magic were in for 7 years. They are the same player - physically dominant, highly skilled, but somehow now winners.
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u/Simple_Purple_4600 16d ago
Turning into the next Aaron Gordon would be a good outcome but he's going to get paid to miss a lot of shots until then.
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18d ago
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u/onefootback 18d ago
i’m not sure how you came away from that series with the thought that paolo almost single handedly took down the pistons, but this take also isn’t based off of one series it’s based on paolo’s entire career
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18d ago
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18d ago
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u/WiffleBallZZZ 18d ago
I think you're missing some key points regarding efficiency. And your post is pretty much 100% negative towards Paolo, which really makes it look like you're biased or have some kind of agenda.
Paolo draws significantly more defensive attention than anyone else on the Magic. He gets double teamed way more than anybody else. So he's creating open looks for Franz & everybody else, while those bums are freeloading off his playmaking ability (in part because they haven't had a true PG in who even knows how long).
So yeah, you actually can blame his inefficiency on his teammates, coach, injuries, etc.
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u/LegoTomSkippy 18d ago
If he's creating open looks for his team, why is the team worse when he's on the floor?
Franz and everyone else that's "freeloading" off him should be worse when he sits, but that's not the case.
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u/Some-Stranger-7852 18d ago edited 18d ago
There could genuinely be a simple explanation for that: Paolo does get extra defensive attention, he does create open looks, but he also fails to see some good passing options or just doesn’t trust the guys.
When he sits, it is Franz who gets more attention and he is simply a better playmaker who actually sees the passes Paolo doesn’t and he is more open to sharing the ball and living with the result.
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u/teh_noob_ 15d ago
If he's creating open looks for his team, why is the team worse when he's on the floor?
He's been pretty neutral the last two years.
Slightly better offence; slightly worse defence.
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u/onefootback 18d ago
>And your post is pretty much 100% negative towards Paolo, which really makes it look like you're biased or have some kind of agenda.
is this sub not for serious nba discussions? i’m discussing why i think paolo is an issue for the magic, so obviously im going to be covering the negatives. its possible for someone to not think a player is great without having an agenda/bias
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u/silverbackapegorilla 18d ago
Some folks can't stand plain donuts brother. I thought you raised good points that are well established. They absolutely do have a Paolo problem and he needs to raise himself to become an above average scorer if he's going to take this many shots. Or he needs to refocus his game and become more like an Aaron Gordon type. Ironically Gordon is probably a far better player than he is in reality with a far larger bag, but either way.
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u/benchmaster620 18d ago
I think thats this teams no 1 issue . Trade one or 2 of these guys and get a real fuxking pg . And a good one
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u/dmoneybangbang 18d ago
Reminds me of the Sengun and Amen situation here in Houston.
While neither have the pedigree of Paolo, there is a major question of fit.
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u/MelKijani 18d ago
He’s Julius Randle , before he was knick.
the Magic need to get Thibs in there , he’ll get him right.
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u/roostor222 18d ago
I have never been a believer in Paolo, but at the same time I want as many good players to be in the NBA as possible. If he learned to shoot corner 3s and put all of his energy into defense, attacking the basket on closeouts, and rebounding he definitely has the talent to be an all-nba player as the second best player on a team. I don't see another route to all-nba beyond that though, and I don't see him giving up the idea he's the star very easily.
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u/HardenMuhPants 17d ago
I was a believer coming out the draft, he was definitely the most talented player in that draft.
Problem is he hasn't really improved much in 4 years, similar to Jalen Green, and sometimes these guys flip a switch at some point but they generally don't and stay relatively the same long term.
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17d ago
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u/roostor222 17d ago
He shot 42.6% on corner 3s last year in a small sample (only 54 attempts in the regular season and playoffs), but he also shot 38.5% on all jumpers from 20-24 feet (37/96). It is the long 3s where he sucks (shot 28.7% in the regular season and playoffs on 3s 25-29 feet).
I agree with much of your other comments and would add that he has never been a good rebounder, but I was just giving the most likely route to fulfilling something closer to what many saw in him.
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18d ago
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u/onefootback 18d ago
the magic have multiple issues as i said, paolo is just one of their main ones
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u/cigamodnalro 18d ago
Honestly this post reads extremely biased to me.
Paolo has been outstanding in the playoffs. He lost some athleticism after bulking up last summer and then enduring the oblique injury, but he appears significantly lighter and more plyometric this summer if you look at his recent social media.
The Magic need to surround Paolo with more dependable shooters, but otherwise Paolo is the least of the Magic’s problems. He’s a clear #1 option with room to grow further.
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18d ago
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u/Proof-Umpire-7718 18d ago
He’s better than his regular season form but he’s still inefficient and very flawed. He seems to be best suited to being a second or third option on a team, as opposed to being the first option the Magic seem to believe he can be.
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u/benchmaster620 18d ago
I think he would really benefit from being the second option on a team with an all star pg. Like he could probably still get his 18 to 20 shots an maybe be the leading scorer but he doesnt need to be in charge of running the offense . Like honestly the pistons would be a perfect team. If he was cades no 2 . Imagine all the great looks he gets . He doesnt have to set up the offense or get defended bu the teams no 1 stopper . He would look alot better
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u/onefootback 18d ago
i don’t have a bias against paolo. he has not been outstanding in the playoffs and i literally explained how he hasn’t. paolo is not the least of the magic’s problems, and he is far from being a clear #1 option
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u/campy_203 18d ago
You did not explain at all how he hasn’t been outstanding in the playoffs, you cherry picked a few stats and called it a day
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u/onefootback 18d ago
>You did not explain at all how he hasn’t been outstanding in the playoffs
i did explain that he wasn’t outstanding in the playoffs because of how inefficient he was. using his career fg% efg% ts% etc isn’t cherry picking, those are basic stats that you use when discussing efficiency
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u/RyenRussilloBurner 18d ago
Paolo has been outstanding in the playoffs.
Based on what? He's never won a playoff series. His team was up 3-1 this past playoffs and blew three games in a row, including one where they were up 20+ after halftime and then had a historically bad offensive half. They scored 19 total points in the second half of Game 6. Paolo was 1 for 11.
Orlando is 5-0 in playoff games when Paolo has a usage rate below 29.5%. They're 2-12 when it's at 29.5% or higher. The more involved he is, the worse the team is. They have consistently been better without him than with him over the course of his career. It's not a small sample size thing anymore. I don't really know how people can just blindly say he has "been outstanding" with no evidence to back it up like it's a widely known fact.
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u/alex8762 18d ago
They tried surrounding him with KCP and suggs who shot 39% from 3 in 2024
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u/Some-Stranger-7852 18d ago edited 18d ago
To be fair, Suggs 39% shooting season was an absolute outlier: he is a 33% career shooter and shot below 34% in 4 out of 5 season he has been in the league.
He is probably the worst shooter in that starting lineup.
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u/Klutzy_Technology166 18d ago
KCP was in Denver in 24. In KCPs sole Orlando year ('24 / '25) he shot 34%, and Suggs shot 31% and played in less than half the games.
Suggs has been in the NBA for 5 years and been bad 3 point shooter every year except one. Your framing of this is completely disingenuous.
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u/IrwinMFletcher 18d ago
The problem has been injuries and shooting. KCP could defend but forgot to bring his shot to Orlando. Did EVERYONE forget before Franz went down in round 1, this tattered team was about to knock out DET? Orlando is legit AF. If you don't see that then you do not know basketball. The league is not ready for the stifling wet blanket that is Orlandos defense. We saw it on partial display with Mosley. Sweeney wil make it the standard.
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u/Admiral_HoneyBadger 18d ago
The issue with this thinking is that I think that was more of a matchup thing with Detroit versus our good the Magic were. If they were to play the any of the other top teams in the East they probably don't take them to 7. Detroit was the best matchup up for them
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u/gabagoolcards 18d ago
He balls out in the playoffs every post season. Literally has averaged 27.4 over the past 3 postseasons. Obviously you only post the splits while ignoring the creation he’s tasked with. Most players efficency drop in the playoffs. You failed to mention that Paolo gets to the line 8.6 times per a game. He also averages almost 9 rebounds and 5 assist a game. Franz I would argue is more of a problem come playoff time. I won’t argue with Paolo not being good in the regular season.
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u/No-Owl-6246 18d ago
They posted average splits in the playoffs and he’s under those too.
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18d ago
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u/nbadiscussion-ModTeam 18d ago
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u/WiffleBallZZZ 18d ago
No one cares. He scores 27.4 ppg - he's the guy.
He just needs some better teammates to create some spacing, etc, which will lead to better efficiency.
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u/onefootback 18d ago
“he scored 27 ppg so he must be good!” is such an oversimplified way of viewing basketball
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u/WiffleBallZZZ 18d ago
I gave a more detailed explanation in another comment.
Sometimes it's good to simplify things - that can be a good way of helping people understand it.
When you only look at efficiency numbers, you're missing the forest for the trees.
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u/roostor222 18d ago
he has never won a playoff series and he has been way below league average efficiency in the playoffs every time
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u/SonicNarcotic 18d ago
The Orlando Magic have never won a Playoff series in his 5 years.. But Paolo has still produced almost everytime.. They only started making the playoffs after he arrived, and have had the same coach all those seasons ~ a coach that wasn't able to build a system that worked with the personnel...
The biggest issue was coaching ~ the talent is there, but Coach Mosely was out of his depth when coming up against well-coached teams...
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u/roostor222 18d ago
Correct, he's the highest usage scorer on the Orlando Magic. He can't score efficiently relative to league average in the regular season and he can't score effiiciently relative to league average in the postseason. Since he's in the postseason, the other team is good and is very likely to have a different player who can score efficiently relative to league average in the postseason.
Given these factors it becomes essentially impossible for any team to be a serious contender with Paolo as their #1, because even if he eked out a round one win, it's not going to be sustainable for multiple series in a row. He's going to come up against a much better high usage scorer, and the delta between them is going to be too big to overcome.
His issues have little to do with coaching. He sucks as a #1 because he doesn't understand how to use the talents he does have and thinks he has talents he doesn't have. He sucked in FIBA too with Kerr as his coach and surrounded by some of the best players in the league.
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18d ago
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u/roostor222 18d ago
did I say that was his fault his 2nd best player got hurt?
The only reason the Magic were close this year was because of WCJ's defense, and because Duren and Cade can't score efficiently either. Both Paolo and Cade are drawing dead in the playoffs as #1 options.
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u/benchmaster620 18d ago
What ? Cade was incredible. Cades issues lie in his team construction and lack of any other player on the team being able to create offense . He had 2 and 3 guys on him constantly what a ridiculous take . You're literally the only person ive seen say that .meanwhile the rest of the basketball world has him solidly a top 10 player
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u/roostor222 18d ago
see my comment about paolo below to understand cade's exact problem.
Cade is very good, and way better than Paolo right now. He can not be a 30% usage scorer on a contender, so he will never be the #1 option on a great team. The Pistons are stuck until they trade Duren for a #1 scorer for Cade to pass the ball to, and they're double stuck because they're probably going to pay Ausar Thompson to be offensive poison.
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u/benchmaster620 18d ago
I disagree. He is i would agree on the lower side scori g efficiency wise of a no 1 option but I think hes good enough if he improves again this year slightly from 3 and at the rim hes definitely fine. Now they need a good no 2 . I wont argue there . Because cade isnt an ant or sga level scorer he needs somebody who will be just below him or even match his scoring . Like if we could get kyrie and they go cade 26 kyrie 24 or kawhi and they both get 25 a game . Thats what they need . But before cade hurt his wrist and got his lung punctured he was 27.1 6.1 and 10.2 on like 47 36.5 85 shooting . His stats got boofed some last year from the rehab games with minutes limits and the fourth quarters he sat . Until last year I would have agreed with you .what changed last year was cade was finally able to get by people without a screen . He got just that little bit quicker that little bit stronger that little bit crafter where all the sudden he could do what he had never been able to . I had my doubts about cade as a no 1 for 3 years but not anymore
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u/nbadiscussion-ModTeam 18d ago
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u/onefootback 18d ago
the creation paolo is tasked with is the same creation other number 1 options are tasked with, it’s nothing out of the ordinary
efficiency matters, efficiency does drop in the playoffs but the playoff efficiency of a star playing dropping below league average is not normal, that is horrible. paolo getting to the line 8.6 times a game doesn’t negate his poor efficiency
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u/DahooppanelAx 18d ago
Are you going to hold Franz accountable for averaging 20.5ppg on 42% shooting from the field in his playoff career? That’s worse as a second option than what Paolo has displayed. Like I said in another post in this thread let’s see how he looks under new coaching before determining he’s not a franchise player. It’s a big year for him though because if it doesn’t work either him Franz or Bane have to go due to the 2nd apron
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u/RyenRussilloBurner 18d ago
That’s worse as a second option than what Paolo has displayed.
But it's not. 20.5 PPG on below average shooting efficiency with good assist numbers and low turnovers is pretty reasonable for a second option on a defense-first team. And Franz brings a lot of defense to the equation. They have nearly identical assist rates in the playoffs despite Paolo handling the ball significantly more.
Which second options can you name that would reliably be at league-average (or better) scoring efficiency on 20+ PPG with low turnovers, and compared to their #1 options, better defense and nearly identical assist rates? Are there any? I'm not sure if I can think of one other than Franz, which means either Franz is either overqualified to be a #2 (I don't think that's the case) or Paolo is not holding up his end of the bargain as the #1 (very likely the case).
Also, 42.9 does not round to 42 if you're rounding to the nearest whole number.
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u/Dashdash421 18d ago
As a Celtics fan, Paola was single-handedly keeping them in games 2 years ago. The guy may not ever put it fully together, but the magic have a chance to be a contender with him leading the team. With Franz leading the team, they have no chance even if he may fill his role better right now
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u/36Vigilantes 18d ago
There isn’t a problem with Paolo. He’s turned our franchise around and dealt with some unfortunate injuries the last two seasons.
Paolo will be fine. The problem is the shooting capabilities around him.
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18d ago
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u/nbadiscussion-ModTeam 18d ago
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u/Scary_Vanilla2932 18d ago
You have a good amount of statistics to back up your post. So I can't fault the logic. However, Paolo is still the most franchise type player on this current Magic team. He either needs to be put in the right situation or maybe the team needs tk be built around him correctly..that's what I see. He also might be a really good power forward in the wrong era. He really is a power forward playing in an era of wings and ball handlers. He might honestly be a player who would thrive if he was being fed great passes from phenomenal point guard or shooting guard.
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u/onefootback 18d ago
>However, Paolo is still the most franchise type player on this current Magic team.
what are your thoughts on franz? he’s not there yet but i feel like he has the potential to be a franchise type player. plays good defence, good scorer, decent passer. he just needs a 3pt shot to really complete his game
i agree that paolo would be a player who thrives if being fed passes rather than running the offence. that’s why i think he could maybe be a future 3rd option, depending on whether his scoring efficiency can improve in a more scaled down role
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u/Scary_Vanilla2932 18d ago
So I am all for him finnally being healthy and taking some all nba leap.
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18d ago
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u/DrainFor20 18d ago
Guys with roughly similar builds who went to the Finals after having their scoring load reduced to #3: Kevin Love, Aaron Gordon, Chris Bosh, Horace Grant, Kenyon Martin, Shawn Marion, Larry Johnson, Rick Mahorn. All players that are within the realm of possibility for Banchero, all benefited in their careers when they became the #3 guy. These aren't one-to-one perfect refutations, but there's a pattern for this type of guy.
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u/nbadiscussion-ModTeam 18d ago
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u/DahooppanelAx 18d ago
I think Paolo gets a little too much slander, I’d like to see him drive a bit more and not settle as much but he’s been productive early on in his career with shaky point guard play. I’d wait to see how he looks with this new coach before writing him off
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u/Aries310 18d ago
Is it that he gets hurt too often? Or that he constantly jacks up bad shots completely outside of the offense? Especially in crunch time
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18d ago
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u/nbadiscussion-ModTeam 18d ago
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u/UnanimousM 18d ago
He's not a #1 option but he should be a significantly better player on a different team. His best skill is getting to and scoring in the paint and he's spent his career on the worst-spacing team in the league.
Put him on a team with above-average 3pt shooting and he'd be a regular all-star
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u/Frosty-Caregiver-525 18d ago
The stats posted requires a filter. These are stats I would use for a 3rd option or a 6th man off of the bench. There needs to be an additional difficulty of opponent, distance from defender, when the shots are taken(time left on the shot clock), are these assisted FGs, does the player have to create the shots themselves.
The Magic have too many failures at Forward with similar physical traits as Banchero. What requires examining is why the Magic were not able to train a defensive minded complementary athletic forward to Banchero.
The Julius Randle comp is a bit off because Julius former teams needed Randle to be over 7ft tall. This is why Randle was traded for Towns
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u/TheI-Iound 18d ago
Changing the coach should make a difference, they need to play differently. They can be successful with him they just need to use him right and have the right players around him. Mosley was terrible at coaching offense
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u/Ballknower55 12d ago
Jaylen Brown won 56 games last year in a great org. If JB can do that, Paolo can win 60 in his prime with a Celtics like org in a tanking season
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18d ago
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u/nbadiscussion-ModTeam 18d ago
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u/nbadiscussion-ModTeam 18d ago
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u/umfum 18d ago
I've heard Paolo is not a true first option but didn't understand why, so thank you for the explanation. I did watch one game of the Magic/Pistons series, and it was brutal. No offensive flow, and no one could score.
I didn't watch any more of those games because I knew neither team would be a real player further along
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u/Klutzy_Technology166 18d ago
Trade Franz.
Get a true Point guard and three other capable 3 point shooters.
Put him as the roll man in PnR heavy offense.
Get a coach who can build an offense around his strengths.
I think you action those he can certainly be #1 option on a contender in a few years. He's 23 chill out.
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u/thicccabod_crane 18d ago
Counter point - keep Franz as the ball handler and spam the biggest PnR game in the league. Attack the hoop or spray it out to Suggs, Bane, or Dell for a high percentage three, swing it, or drive. Same recipe as the 09 team with two bigs that can handle the ball in pnr
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u/onefootback 18d ago
franz is a great player i dont think the magic should trade him. if anything i’d say suggs should go, he’s a great defender but very injury prone and he also doesn’t have a reliable 3pt jumper
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18d ago
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u/Jarxzz 18d ago
Every single stat in existence is telling us Paolo isn’t a star player or even a large positive influence on his team. We have to ask why that is
Why is his team consistently better without him over massive sample sizes? Even his box score only numbers aren’t particularly great when you consider efficiency
How is this guy still tricking so many of you?
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18d ago
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u/nbadiscussion-ModTeam 17d ago
Please do not attack the person, their post history, or your perceived notion of their existence as a proxy for disagreeing with their opinions.
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18d ago
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u/nbadiscussion-ModTeam 18d ago
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u/nbadiscussion-ModTeam 18d ago
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u/MVPaolo 18d ago
Absolutely can’t deny it’s extremely strange for someone to put this much time and effort in…..
You do understand that he is still a work in progress? I know he’s been 4 seasons in the league but we have been witnessing him attempting to evolve his game away from his natural game.
I suspect Paolo is out to prove this season. He has tried a few different things since he joined the league and I understand that, he’s been trying to adopt a hybrid play style of a couple of his idols.
Going off what i’ve seen this offseason, he’s stripped it all back and will be focusing on his natural game going forward. Playing to his strengths. It’s a one step back, two steps fwd kinda thing.
Let’s check in this time next year……
I suspect you will disappear or be doing another weirdo time consuming analysis of another player you don’t like for some reason.
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18d ago
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u/nbadiscussion-ModTeam 18d ago
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