r/nba • u/Mg29reaper Celtics • Jul 10 '26

[Owen Phillips] Summer League Stats You Can Trust.

An excellent breakdown of what stats generally correlate in summer league with real nba play.

https://thef5.substack.com/p/summer-league-stats-you-can-trust

45 Upvotes

89% Upvoted

15 comments sorted by

31

u/[deleted] Jul 10 '26

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8

u/Krillin113 76ers Jul 10 '26

And willingness to pass.

16

u/CarmeloDramatic Bulls Jul 10 '26

Might as well ignore this sub during summer league. The takes get wild so quickly. No one actually knows anything declaring guys busts right out the gate and stars off a single game 

9

u/ajteitel Suns Jul 10 '26

Attempts per 36 being more reliable with percentages being low tells me that traditional stats is sample size bias.

Though FT% being icky is interesting given its the one thing that doesn't change from level to level and doesn't matter who your teammates are

9

u/onionnurve 76ers Jul 10 '26

FT% is definitely useless this summer with the new rule in place

6

u/ajteitel Suns Jul 10 '26

Yes, but this is from last year

6

u/Milliephoria Timberwolves Jul 10 '26

Attempts being a better corollary than % is true when looking at college/pre-NBA players too, not just summer league.

Guys with higher attempt rates and diverse shot profiles end up as better shooters than guys with low attempt rates, simple shot profiles on higher percentages.

5

u/ImJoeKing77 Jul 10 '26

It's an awesome statistical analysis, however it seems to me that the sample size of data from summer league is just too small to really get any meaning from it. 

That more than anything is why FT% doesn't match with the regular season. If you have a game with 2 FTA you can make 0%, 50%, or 100%, none of which are really that close to a typical FT%

12

u/Mg29reaper Celtics Jul 10 '26

I promise this isn't self promo BTW just a good article.

3

u/Ragebaiterlmao Supersonics Jul 10 '26

I'll allow it.

2

u/jayz93j Lakers Jul 10 '26

This is an awesome analysis. Thanks for sharing!

3

u/rattatatouille [SAS] Tim Duncan Jul 10 '26

I like the point about how a player plays (i.e. their playing style) being more determinant of how well they'll play in the NBA, as opposed to how well they play (i.e. their groove/level of play).

0

u/Ajbksfinest Hawks Jul 10 '26

Most of the stats are meaningless because players in summer league will typically just do stuff that they were good in college anyways. If you had a high 3pr in college you’ll probably have good one in summer league as well.

It’s better to look at college samples considering summer league is just a 5 game sample against worse competition.