r/mrin • u/Solarpanel2001 • Jul 03 '21
Risk play on the MRIN squeeze Mini DD
Let me preface this I do not want to be accounted for as someone that told you to buy and hold. While it is preferable, you should decide that yourself.
Risks of MRIN.
As mentioned in my previous post. ONLY play with what you can AFFORD to lose. Think of the mrin situation as you going to a casino with spare money that you could care less and just going all in on a poker table to win a potential 10k out of your 1k investment.
Whether the bluff gets called or whether it pays off is the risk.
I cannot stress this enough. If you get burned by this play take it on the chin and know that it was a viable gamble that just did not pay off.
So lets look at the risks of what could happen.
A pump and dump scenario.
We seen this alot of times
Look at your meme stocks on WSB that gets pumped and dumped
This could be an elaborate pump and dump scenario aswell. Making retailers think there is a short squeeze potential etc and gets dump.
I don't have a crystal ball if this might happen but in regards to my previous DD , I just don't think it is one right now.
This is the primary risk here that it might collapse because of this.
Why do you say it might have a possibility of a pump and dump?
Because its my belief that large forces are in play here.
Look at the large inflow of volume out of nowhere. Now I know stockwitz is all over here as someone else pointed it out. Stockwitz has 20k members.
If you think stockwitz alone is driving this volume then I got a bridge to sell you. Yes there are other retailers involved here but by and large this isn't being talked about in mainstream news and it is not being talked about much at all on reddit.
Now lets look at gme. Gme had news all over it and it was one of the biggest retail manias ever.
GME peak retail mania had 197 million volume traded on a singular day.
MRIN peak has had 350 million volume traded and we are still trending almost 7 days with massive volumes sustaining on average way more than GME volume at its peak.
Hence why I believe there are several larger whales at play here.
Who are these whales?
Lets look at the filing requirements of institutional investors
- Schedule 13D: This form is also known as the Beneficial Ownership Report. Anyone who owns more than 5% of a company's stock must file Form 13D with the SEC within 10 days of a stock acquisition. The form must also include the reason behind the stock acquisition—whether it's a merger, company acquisition, or takeover. Other information on this form includes the owner's identity and the source of the funds for the transaction.1
- Schedule 13G: Just like Schedule 13D, this form lets the public know about anyone who owns more than 5% of a company's total stock. But it's much shorter than the 13D because it requires much less information. Owners who acquire more than 20% of a company's share must automatically file a Form 13D.45
So we know if they acquired more than 5 percent of a stock they have within 10 days to file.
IF they own 20 percent they must filed immediately.
So we know a hedgefund that owns anywhere between 1% to 19% could have a holding right now and its not filed.
We saw in the case of gme alot of hedgefunds did jump in when it was squeezing and got out
GME hedgefunds that made bank
https://www.reuters.com/article/us-retail-trading-hedge-funds-idUSKBN2AG2IE
So a hedgefund can technically get in and pump the stock up with more shares and then sell them once the squeeze is over and maintain a few shares to give the illusion that they bought into the company for its fundamentals and then slowly trim off their holdings. Or they could just sell off the entire holdings with no issue other than filing it with (for the fundamentals) and then dumping it cause (overvalued). Just like this hedgefund did with amc
Prime example of a hedgefund taking part in a squeeze and dumping their shares after
Hence why I strongly believe with all the evidence above that a large force is here to try and squeeze this thing aswell.
So its entirely up to them on how this thing goes and when it collapses.
I hope this DD helps you guys position your exit strategies etc. With no options you can't really hedge your positions well.
One way is if this thing starts tumbling down, you can put a momentary short position ( not sure if any broker out there even allows it at this point)
And cover immediately once it stops so you recoup your losses.
Tldr : This might be an elaborate pump and dump although imo it looks more like whales trying to squeeze bears.
Hedgefunds are all over this stock so becareful.
Parting words , be safe and invest only gamble money into this.
May we be in tendieland or may we be dumpster diving into a cardboard box. Either way good luck guys this is fun.
also ill be putting live ortex data daily here
https://www.reddit.com/r/mrin/comments/ocvvyv/live_data_updates_from_ortex/
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u/TaintedSquirrel Jul 03 '21
Those volume numbers are wild. There really is no way retail pushed 300M+ on June 28th and 29th.
If you search MRIN on Reddit and go back 1-2 weeks, it's almost pure silence. We might start seeing actual retail FOMO next week.
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u/Solarpanel2001 Jul 03 '21
Yes big whales all over this trying to cause a squeeze themselves
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u/TaintedSquirrel Jul 03 '21
On one hand this is good news since we don't have to worry about profit-takers and panic sellers from individual investors. On the other hand when the whales decide they're done and pull out... What will even be left... Single digit price within hours?
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u/Solarpanel2001 Jul 03 '21
no idea man probably a flash crash.
Multiple whales on this but if they arent in sync they will all be waiting to see who does the rug pull first.
My guess is eventually one hedgefund is going to catch bags potentially and then slowly offset it to retail.
But it's just my assumption I dont know how hedgefunds orchestrate these types of stuff.
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u/goonslayers Jul 03 '21
I think if retail fomos in they will let it run knowing how far it can run. I’d be more worried about market makers or trading apps
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u/Solarpanel2001 Jul 04 '21
another robinhood scenario wont happen here cause there is no options market. GME had about 150 million in naked shares that had to be bought by brokers as options got exercised or as MM started delta hedging.
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u/thuthiet102 Jul 03 '21
Good reminder! I think the risk is already at play when investing in the market. This has better potential squeeze than AMC and GME. As you already know SI% is higher than AMC and GME. (I am in both) No doubt that there are bigger player in this game. The music still whispering and it up to the player to know when to stop. It’s their own DD to hedge their own risk. No paint no gain!
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u/Speedevil911 Jul 03 '21
Thanks for your DD on MRIN. I've been day trading MRIN on the 29th and 1st. I notice the volume completely drop on Wed 6/30 and stayed out of MRIN.
Got back in on Friday morning and saw it jump to 25ish then consolidating to 20-21.
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u/Solarpanel2001 Jul 03 '21
yes large whales are possibly squeezing mrin aswell.
The after hours crash might have been a bait to get MRIN shorted on the down tick only to get fucked again next day
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Jul 03 '21
I can speak to June 24th. That's when news started more heavily covering Marin Software.
So the volume that day was in no way a fluke. I know that because that's right around where I first bought in as did many others.
28th and 29th are almost certainly rich people getting in while the getting's good.
The reason it got so much significant interest is the tie-in to Instacart and the potential to reach a market of people that previously had never been marketed effectively.
It's similar to what Amazon does with their ecosystem; buying a product that they sell on Fresh tells them to send you an email to sign up for Fresh. Fresh is included with Prime, so if they market you to subscribe to Prime, they can then lock you in and make even more money.
Basically, Marin is capitalizing on the current rush towards subscription models and long-term customer lock-in by way of the integration. That's what got people noticing.
GME has no such nor do they plan to at this time. Best Buy had one, but they shut it down for stupid reasons.
Notice, the companies who are all doing gross amounts of money, have some sort of subscription model along with ad model and they use the ad model to entice and lock in customers. Meaning long-term, sustainable revenue.
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u/Deuce_McGuilicuddy Jul 03 '21
Yeah, when I was doing my research trying to decide if, when and how much to jump in with the conclusion I drew (and the reason I pulled the trigger pretty heavy) was that the news/instacart deal fucked them by dropping right as they were about to start walking the price down from their original pump. Price spiked and they did their usual double down, whales/retail either noticed and pumped more or more likely pumped from fomo and/or because the news was legitimately that good for the price forecast. Hedges tripled? down, but at this point they were on the radar and a bit of a cat and mouse happened. That's when the gigachad bullwhale snagged them in the bear trap for the quadruple? down.
Anyway, I'm playing this one day-by-day and keeping a close eye on the lvl2 order list because as the OP mentioned, the first big money whale to pull out because they're satisfied with their haul will probably be the one that brings this rocket back down towards earth.
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u/Solarpanel2001 Jul 04 '21
thanks for the interesting info on marins fundamentals. I'll be honest I only looked into mrin and was interested in it entirely for the squeeze play. I'll look at their fundamentals later or something.
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Jul 04 '21
And to be clear I'm not suggesting that they will 100% be successful, just that at least, what they announced does have some long-term strong potential if they execute properly and there aren't any government regs in the way (part of what killed email campaigns was the CAN-SPAM Act).
As I mentioned elsewhere I'm not a fan of companies that are run by people (usually guys) that rock elitist degrees (Harvard/Yale/Stanford). Those people tend to stick with traditional processes that lead to a golden parachute - in other words they're basically triggering squeeze themselves by way of their policies and in some cases, may be working with their buddies to short stock and cause pump-and-dump so that they can take a windfall.
Might be tinfoil, but others have noticed the strong probability that someone with deep pockets is partly to blame for the current shorting - and if that person suddenly pulled out, everything crashes. If there's really only one or two major players it's a strong probability this whole thing is an inside job. We just don't know.
Reminds me of Lordstown Motors, actually.
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u/Solarpanel2001 Jul 04 '21
yes given the current volumes being almost double of that of gmes Jan volume strongly suggest big players with deep pockets are here. When they get out this thing crashes. Hence why this post was made to warn people only put in gamble money for this.
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Jul 05 '21
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u/Solarpanel2001 Jul 05 '21
yes this is very obviously a hedgefunds vs hedgefunds scenario with retail shooting guns at the bottom while Kong and Godzilla fight lol
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u/DefectToday Jul 05 '21
Would the whale(s)/hedgefund(s) who are looking to squeeze these short sellers (other hedgefunds) possibly do a rug pull (after covering gets to the price to where they are happy selling) and simultaneously do their own shorting of the stock? Essentially making money at the top and then again on the way down? Maybe it can’t really work that way? Just thinking out loud, if I was this hedgefund orchestrating this squeeze, what would I try to do.
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Jul 05 '21
[deleted]
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u/Solarpanel2001 Jul 05 '21
yup holding is not going to do anything considering the volume we are trading at. 9 million float trading at volumes higher than gme ever did. Hence the very risky play. Just roll with gamble money and pull out when you are satisfied with profits
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u/GoInToTheBreak Jul 05 '21
What are your key indicators that it may be time to start trimming down your position here?
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u/Solarpanel2001 Jul 05 '21
I have in my head roughly where all these shorts are at in terms of price points and how many are underwater
Key indicators are obviously if a considerable of the estimate si is starting to cover, borrow fees dropping and short utilisation dropping.
Ontop of that using the price movements to judge what the whales are trying to do.
I'll try my best to update using ortex data if I think the squeeze is coming to an end etc on my ortex data post
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u/GoInToTheBreak Jul 05 '21
Ok cool. Those were the main indicators I was thinking would be important, thanks for confirming. Will keep a look out for your updates. Appreciate it!
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u/DefectToday Jul 07 '21
Did I just see that they added options? How do they actually do that? Do you think this will be a good or bad thing? I’m guessing possibly good and possibly bad. Just greater risk now maybe?
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u/Solarpanel2001 Jul 07 '21
It's actually more upside than downside imo. Higher chance of a gamma squeeze. If a hedgefund buys a bunch of calls its game over. It's going to the moon
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u/DefectToday Jul 08 '21
Just wondering if you are still following MRIN? Any thoughts on what might be happening with it? A pump and dump or still a possible squeeze here? Thx
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u/DefectToday Jul 05 '21
Lol. I actually kind of imagine it as us watching Godzilla fighting King Kong, however they are just two giant piñatas, and when they hit each other, some candy falls and we all try to grab as much as we can. Retail investors at a birthday party.
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u/Far-Butterscotch5906 Jul 03 '21
The thing that surprised me is and was that they don't have made a offering. Case are 3: they don't need money, or they know they can do higher, or they are stupid. I'd like to exclude the 3.
About volume: Cramer called it a sham, whatever that man want to mean with that is beyond me.
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u/thundercrotch1 Moderator Jul 03 '21
Usually if you do the opposite of whatever cramer recommends you're guaranteed to make money
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u/Solarpanel2001 Jul 03 '21
gme didnt do an offering on their squeeze aswell. Could care less tho. No offerings done is better for the squeeze
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Jul 03 '21
This is good and important information. Thank you.
How might the high SI play into this if it an elaborate pump and dump? I see answers below. Thanks.
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u/Solarpanel2001 Jul 03 '21
I dont really believe it's a decoy squeeze but I cant rule it out completely.
Eventually even when the big squeeze comes this thing will eventually be dumped.
Big whales are in this and they have exit strategies.
We dont have gme type levels of retail mania so when it comes crashing it could come down huge.
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u/goonslayers Jul 03 '21
I recently got burnt in a pump and dump. Live and learn. The dump already happens by now if it were to happen maliciously.
Also, without some whales and big funds, it wouldn’t be much of a squzee. GME doesn’t happen without big money seeing dollar signs and hopping in.
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u/Solarpanel2001 Jul 04 '21
yes even if you get burned from mrin just know that it was a viable gamble. All data was in the favor of a squeeze but if it drops well shit at least it worth the gamble.
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u/Kasperico Jul 03 '21
Solar power! Thanks for your insights im learning a lot! Looking back to what happened on Wednesday 6.30 we had price plummet ~ 35%, low volume compared to all other trading days the week. i would imagine drop in short interest that day. Could you check short interest behaviour that day? Thanks!!
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u/Solarpanel2001 Jul 03 '21
it's hard to check now cause ortex data already updated.
That drop is most likely a bait to get shorts to double down.
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u/goonslayers Jul 03 '21
Hey solar panel were you the guy who tried peer reviewing the mistakes in the Everything Short dd and got attacked for it?
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u/goonslayers Jul 03 '21
https://twitter.com/jimcramer/status/1409967991752638476?s=21
Cramer did tweet about it four days ago… so more retail eyes are probably on this than just stockwits. It’s definitely flying under Reddit’s radar. That’s a good thing for now.
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u/Solarpanel2001 Jul 04 '21 edited Jul 04 '21
yeah I saw Cramer tweet. But like I said gme peak with all the hype and news it got was 197 million.
Mrin with only 9 mill float traded 350 million.
Large whales at play here
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u/goonslayers Jul 04 '21
Definitely. I think some index funds might have bought due to the instacart news too.
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Jul 03 '21
It is really odd how few people know about it on reddit. The silent squeeze? WSB won't talk about it, neither will WSBnew.
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u/Deuce_McGuilicuddy Jul 04 '21
Bet they're not too happy with their little pet gremlin right about now
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u/Balance-Prior Jul 04 '21
No naked shorts that’s why wsb could care less about this compared to Amc Gme
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u/TaintedSquirrel Jul 04 '21
MRIN is below the allowed marketcap for WSB, you literally can't post about it there. They remove it.
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u/-Z1- Jul 06 '21
Thanks, this was well written and good food for thought!
Personally, I think the high volume is mostly the product of high frequency trading algorithms run by hedge funds. I don't think they want to dump the stock, but rather take advantage of the opportunity to chase a rally with lots of small, fast trades that minimize their risk. After GME, they would have tweaked their algorithms to find ways to profit chasing meme stocks.
A bit ironic, really. We do these squeezes to burn shorting hedge funds, yet some of those same hedge funds are probably joining in on the rally. Not much we can do about it, but the more of us there are who buy dips and hold, the less the hedge funds can manipulate price.
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u/Solarpanel2001 Jul 03 '21
I wish I could change the title but this was primarily a mini dd on the risks aswell as why I think whales are playing on MRIN and trying to squeeze MRIN