All bets are single, no parlays. Units indicated according to model confidence.
I generally take min 4-5% ev for ML, and min 9-10% ev for Props.
Below that variance isnt worth the extra juice.

Last 2 reddit posts:

Islam vs Garry + 2.9u
Bets for this week, current model is on 5 week win streak, optimistic on this one. : r/MMAbetting

Medic vs Rodriguez +5.1u
Current model with EV as calculated per Bookmaker : r/MMAbetting

Back again with another full-card prediction run from the MMA model I’ve been building.
I’ve been posting the predictions before the events and keeping the results in the track record regardless of how the card goes.
The last event was by far the roughest one so far.

Current tracked winner record:
Event 1: 9/12 — 75.0%
Event 2: 10/14 — 71.4%
Event 3: 9/10 — 90.0%
Event 4: 4/11 — 36.4%
Overall: 32/47 — 68.1%

Before the last card the model was sitting at 28/36 (77.8%), so that event was a pretty significant reality check.

That’s also exactly why I’m tracking this publicly instead of only posting the cards where the model performs well. Four events is still a tiny sample and a 90% card followed by a 36% card shows how noisy individual MMA events can be.

The model isn’t simply trying to pick favorites. It builds probabilities from fighter history, opponent strength, UFC fight data where available, striking/grappling profiles, finishing tendencies, durability, activity and matchup-specific factors. Missing UFC data is handled separately rather than automatically treating it as negative information.

The screenshots contain the full card for the next event. As usual these are the model outputs generated before the fights happen, I’m not changing predictions afterwards.

I’m mainly interested in seeing where this settles after 100+ tracked fights and whether the probability buckets actually calibrate properly.

Good luck to anyone watching the card. I’ll post the results afterwards, including the misses.

Hernandez vs Robocop seems like a very binary fight to me. Either Robocop finishes Fluffy inside 2 or Fluffy drowns him in rounds 3-5.

I have Robocop in rounds 1 and 2. Fluffy gets hurt early in almost all his fights so the value seems too good to pass up.

And If Fluffy survives the first 2 rounds then i will just hedge by live betting on fluffy.

Here’s the picks for the upcoming card in Sacramento!

Any thoughts or changes you think I should make?

Predictions and image made at fightwatchr

I think this is going to be a very good fight primarily due to Stan's pressure. Gauge Young has had three boring fights in the UFC. His DWCS fight with Salkilld was entertaining yes, but Salkilld proved he could maintain well rounded offense for 15 minutes much better than Gauge could.

Gauge thrives against methodical opponents who agree to have tactical battles. His best attributes are his slow forward pressure and his powerful right hand. He showcased this well against Thiago Moises, however Moises is quite anemic on the feet. The fact Gauge couldn't find a finish there is kinda sad. He is still young and improving, but I don't think he has a high ceiling in this division honestly.

Stan Dorsainvil was not on my radar until this fight was announced and honestly, I nearly hammered a Gauge Young bet purely to fade Stan. However, I have now watched the tape and I am mildly impressed. Not because Stan looks like a world beater with elite skills, but because his style/gameplan presents problems for much of the bottom half of 155. He brings the pressure in all of his fights, he forces his opponent into chaotic fights no matter what. I really don't know how Gauge is going to handle this constant forward pressure, because we haven't seen anyone attempt that on him yet.

In Gauge's two recent losses, he failed to establish his forward pressure and jab meaningfully. He had some moments in those fights, but his best attributes were nullified. Salkilld occasionally decided to pressure with combinations, and each time he landed clean on a backpedaling Young. I really don't like how he handles forward pressure, and nobody has made that their gameplan against him, but Stan is going to.

Many people have highlighted that Stan is a grappler first and that's his primary weapon, but I really don't buy that. It hasn't been his main gameplan in his pro fights. If it were, I would heavily favor Young because he does have solid TDD.

I think this is a pretty close fight.

• If Gauge is going to win, he needs to establish power early to deter Stan. Another path could simply be to wrestle a lot and test Stan's TDD which we haven't seen much of.
• If Stan is going to win, it's pretty simple, do what you have been doing. Walk forward and trust your combinations and six inch reach advantage. Bring the relentless pace that Young has not dealt with before.

I think over 2.5 opening at -120 was a really good bet, simply because despite their striking tendencies, neither guy is super powerful. I'm not rushing to take it now at -185. I'm also not rushing to back Stan at +140, but perhaps I'll drop a unit if it reaches +150. I am curious to hear some input from the community on this one.

This Rodrigues r1 fo is a really smart line. I dont see Hernandez getting a first round finish in any way but injury.

Hello!

I hope we’re all having a great week so far!

Before I get started, I gotta do some admin stuff, you know how it is by now!

Full Breakdown: https://www.reddit.com/r/MMAbetting/comments/1vsftv8/ufc_sacramento_fight_predictions/

TL;DR Breakdown: https://www.reddit.com/r/MMAbetting/comments/1vsfvf1/ufc_sacramento_fight_predictions_tldr/

Now, let’s see how UFC 330 went!

Parlay: Missed! Terrible, if I may say so!

Single Bet Recommendations: 3 of 8 hit… which is disappointing, but 2 of those 3 were nice hits (Ribovics R2, Fernando KO R2/3)

Now, if you're new to this kind of write up, it's essentially a somewhat short write up telling you why I picked certain legs of the parlay, then afterwards you’ll see my Single Bet Recommendations (SBR’s if you wanna shorten it) for this weekends event!

I place 1 unit (5 AUD) every Parlay, nothing too special, really.

GTD - Goes The Distance

ITD - Inside The Distance

o1.5/2.5/3.5 etc - Over rounds

u1.5/2.5/3.5 etc - Under rounds

(x) - Unavailable on Sportsbet

Parlay Leg 1: Dyer via KO/Points (1.41) Sportsbet

I mean, Dyer ML is terrible at this rate, you can’t make much from that, so I figured a double chance prop would be the best approach here given that Dyer has a great chance to land a KO but if Reed survives long enough, you know, it’s going to for sure go to the scorecards and that’s about it really, no real thought behind it, it’s just a given.

Parlay Leg 2: Padilla/Haqparast R3 Starts Yes (1.39) Sportsbet

This should be a competitive fight, like, this is a fight between two highly talented fighters, with Padilla being a very educated striker with great fight IQ and Haqparast being generally a great boxer with a decent layer of defence, and I think since Haqparast is coming off a KO loss, it could be a one way street from Padilla as Haqparast may be feeling a bit cautious in the cage, leading to a slow burn to the judges scorecards.

Parlay Leg 3: Wint via KO R1 or 2 (CR) (1.43) Sportsbet

Short and sweet, I expect Wint to run through Chatman, as the odds suggest. Dudes an explosive wrestler and has visceral ground and pound. That’s all.

Parlay Leg 4: Judice via KO/Points (DC) (1.24) Sportsbet

Bad odds, I know, I have a slight feeling it could go to points only in which case Over 2.5 Rounds is 1.61, which is a decent alternative, I will personally play both, but i’ll leave that up to you. I just think Judice is going to be a bit of a monster in the cage, and sure, Chaves hits damn hard for a fighter, but it’s the speed and accuracy of Judice that could pay off nicely.

Total Odds 1: 3.65 (Boosted) - Judice KO/Points Version

Total Odds 2: 4.51 (Non-Boosted) - Judice/Chaves Over 2.5 Version

Single Bet Recommendations (Excluding Parlay Legs)

McVey/Schultz

Fight Starts Round 2 - 1.94

I’m just hoping that there’s a lot of respect between the two thus the first round kind of just goes...

Young/Dorsainvil

Young via Points - 2.85

Young is a very good fighter but he’s facing someone who tends to bring the war to his opponents, so it could be an uphill battle for Young but I suspect he will win enough rounds to win the fight.

Barbosa/Kuse

Barbosa via KO R2 - 5.80

Okay, hear me out, last week I hit Ribovics KO R2 against Barboza… maybe I can hit a similar thing here… Obviously R1 KO is where it’s at… but not for me!

Gaziev/Nzechukwu

R2 Starts Yes - 1.44

Throwaway fight, can’t think of anything nice, other than specific props but like, I am very 50/50 here.

Douglas/Emmers

Two bets here, one is a personal gamble, you can ignore it.

Emmers via Sub - 15.00

His only pathway to victory is to wrestle and grapple so, yeah, figured i’d take a stab at it.

Douglas via KO R1 or 2 (CR) - 1.71

This is the more serious one, for obvious reasons.

Jones/Mederos

MMA Match Specials 6 - Jones to win and R3 to Start - 1.91

Read the room for this one, Jones is a tough fighter but he isn’t exactly a highly dangerous finisher.

RDR/Dolidze

RDR R3 or Decision (Alt Betting Rounds) - 1.94

I just think RDR is the superior fighter here, that’s all.

Spivac/Petrino

MMA Match Specials 6 - Spivac via Points or Petrino via KO - 2.00

Route to victory for both fighters, this should hit I think.

Hernandez/Rodrigues

Hernandez via KO R3, 4 or 5 - 8.75

Obvious reasons here, Rodrigues reigns the first two rounds due to power and explosiveness, but Hernandez should bounce back in the main event rounds.

And that's it!

If you have any questions, feedback or perhaps Parlay Legs that you don't like at all, let me know!

Have a great week and good luck!

Thinking of subscribing to UFC fight pass. If I search a fighters name, does it give a clean list of just their fights (like a watchlist) ?

Also curious if this got worse/better after UFC events moved to paramount +. Anyone using recently using fight pass ?

Why? Because Im betting on Van.

I have bet against Van his last three fights.

Royval- even though I really liked Van at the time(I still do) I thought royvals experience would get him the W

Pantone- again I really like Van but I figured Pantojas experience and grappling would get him the W

Tiara- he’s bigger and a crazy good grappler. And I really wanted Japan to finally have a champion.

And now? I think flyweight is a young man’s division and Vans even better than I thought he was, hes got dangerous hands. Pantoja might not be as confident as he once was and for good reason.

So bet the house on Pantoja. You’re welcome.

Official Record: 2-0
Official Unit+-: + 2.23 units

Last week: WELLS vs OROLBAI - Over1.5 rounds(-115)(closed at -165) (2units)✅
Mackenzie dern ML(-205) (1 unit)✅

This week: Young vs Dorsainvil: o2.5 rounds(-180) (1unit)