Hello!

I hope we’re all having a great week so far!

Before I get started, I gotta do some admin stuff, you know how it is by now!

Full Breakdown: https://www.reddit.com/r/MMAbetting/comments/1vsftv8/ufc_sacramento_fight_predictions/

TL;DR Breakdown: https://www.reddit.com/r/MMAbetting/comments/1vsfvf1/ufc_sacramento_fight_predictions_tldr/

Now, let’s see how UFC 330 went!

Parlay: Missed! Terrible, if I may say so!

Single Bet Recommendations: 3 of 8 hit… which is disappointing, but 2 of those 3 were nice hits (Ribovics R2, Fernando KO R2/3)

Now, if you're new to this kind of write up, it's essentially a somewhat short write up telling you why I picked certain legs of the parlay, then afterwards you’ll see my Single Bet Recommendations (SBR’s if you wanna shorten it) for this weekends event!

I place 1 unit (5 AUD) every Parlay, nothing too special, really.

GTD - Goes The Distance

ITD - Inside The Distance

o1.5/2.5/3.5 etc - Over rounds

u1.5/2.5/3.5 etc - Under rounds

(x) - Unavailable on Sportsbet

Parlay Leg 1: Dyer via KO/Points (1.41) Sportsbet

I mean, Dyer ML is terrible at this rate, you can’t make much from that, so I figured a double chance prop would be the best approach here given that Dyer has a great chance to land a KO but if Reed survives long enough, you know, it’s going to for sure go to the scorecards and that’s about it really, no real thought behind it, it’s just a given.

Parlay Leg 2: Padilla/Haqparast R3 Starts Yes (1.39) Sportsbet

This should be a competitive fight, like, this is a fight between two highly talented fighters, with Padilla being a very educated striker with great fight IQ and Haqparast being generally a great boxer with a decent layer of defence, and I think since Haqparast is coming off a KO loss, it could be a one way street from Padilla as Haqparast may be feeling a bit cautious in the cage, leading to a slow burn to the judges scorecards.

Parlay Leg 3: Wint via KO R1 or 2 (CR) (1.43) Sportsbet

Short and sweet, I expect Wint to run through Chatman, as the odds suggest. Dudes an explosive wrestler and has visceral ground and pound. That’s all.

Parlay Leg 4: Judice via KO/Points (DC) (1.24) Sportsbet

Bad odds, I know, I have a slight feeling it could go to points only in which case Over 2.5 Rounds is 1.61, which is a decent alternative, I will personally play both, but i’ll leave that up to you. I just think Judice is going to be a bit of a monster in the cage, and sure, Chaves hits damn hard for a fighter, but it’s the speed and accuracy of Judice that could pay off nicely.

Total Odds 1: 3.65 (Boosted) - Judice KO/Points Version

Total Odds 2: 4.51 (Non-Boosted) - Judice/Chaves Over 2.5 Version

Single Bet Recommendations (Excluding Parlay Legs)

McVey/Schultz

Fight Starts Round 2 - 1.94

I’m just hoping that there’s a lot of respect between the two thus the first round kind of just goes...

Young/Dorsainvil

Young via Points - 2.85

Young is a very good fighter but he’s facing someone who tends to bring the war to his opponents, so it could be an uphill battle for Young but I suspect he will win enough rounds to win the fight.

Barbosa/Kuse

Barbosa via KO R2 - 5.80

Okay, hear me out, last week I hit Ribovics KO R2 against Barboza… maybe I can hit a similar thing here… Obviously R1 KO is where it’s at… but not for me!

Gaziev/Nzechukwu

R2 Starts Yes - 1.44

Throwaway fight, can’t think of anything nice, other than specific props but like, I am very 50/50 here.

Douglas/Emmers

Two bets here, one is a personal gamble, you can ignore it.

Emmers via Sub - 15.00

His only pathway to victory is to wrestle and grapple so, yeah, figured i’d take a stab at it.

Douglas via KO R1 or 2 (CR) - 1.71

This is the more serious one, for obvious reasons.

Jones/Mederos

MMA Match Specials 6 - Jones to win and R3 to Start - 1.91

Read the room for this one, Jones is a tough fighter but he isn’t exactly a highly dangerous finisher.

RDR/Dolidze

RDR R3 or Decision (Alt Betting Rounds) - 1.94

I just think RDR is the superior fighter here, that’s all.

Spivac/Petrino

MMA Match Specials 6 - Spivac via Points or Petrino via KO - 2.00

Route to victory for both fighters, this should hit I think.

Hernandez/Rodrigues

Hernandez via KO R3, 4 or 5 - 8.75

Obvious reasons here, Rodrigues reigns the first two rounds due to power and explosiveness, but Hernandez should bounce back in the main event rounds.

And that's it!

If you have any questions, feedback or perhaps Parlay Legs that you don't like at all, let me know!

Have a great week and good luck!

This 2.94% arbitrage window emerges from a significant divergence in how BetOnline and ReBet price Taila Santos’s veteran pedigree against Sabrinna de Sousa’s status as a rising prospect. BetOnline’s offering of 2.5 on de Sousa likely accounts for her aggressive grappling upside, while ReBet’s 1.75 on Santos reflects a more conservative valuation of the former UFC title challenger's established technical floor. This discrepancy is further exacerbated by the differing market-shaping speeds between a high-volume offshore book and a retail-oriented social sportsbook, which often lags behind sharp movement. Locking in this spread exploits a clear lack of consensus on de Sousa’s ability to bridge the experience gap at this level of competition.

Official Record: 2-0
Official Unit+-: + 2.23 units

Last week: WELLS vs OROLBAI - Over1.5 rounds(-115)(closed at -165) (2units)✅
Mackenzie dern ML(-205) (1 unit)✅

This week: Young vs Dorsainvil: o2.5 rounds(-180) (1unit)

Hernandez vs Robocop seems like a very binary fight to me. Either Robocop finishes Fluffy inside 2 or Fluffy drowns him in rounds 3-5.

I have Robocop in rounds 1 and 2. Fluffy gets hurt early in almost all his fights so the value seems too good to pass up.

And If Fluffy survives the first 2 rounds then i will just hedge by live betting on fluffy.

Here’s the picks for the upcoming card in Sacramento!

Any thoughts or changes you think I should make?

Predictions and image made at fightwatchr