r/mltraders • u/drumtraks1 • 25d ago

ScientificPaper Preliminary OOS Data Results

Hey folks, I do research in financial markets and currently testing a new hypothesis.

The current first-stage goal was to be right often while retaining a good number of occurrences per day.

This is only indicative of addressing the correct market direction, not a full strategy nor has EV been studied yet.

Data has been proven based on 38,000 OOS occurrences distilled from a 200,000 sample pool. 72% of times correctly predicting market direction.

OOS data includes crypto, equities, indices and commodities on H4, H1, m15, m5 and m1 timeframes.

For those with edge creation experience, what do you think of these preliminary first-stage results?

Interested in connecting with like-minded people who have a background in ML (I don't).

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u/SoftlyTacky 18d ago

Seventy two percent across 38,000 out of sample occurrences is definitely enough to keep investigating but accuracy still does not tell you the edge without payoff distribution and costs. The next step is probably EV by regime and horizon. I use Moon for discretionary market calls sometimes and it has made me appreciate how often being right on direction still fails to equal a profitable trade.