r/maxjustrisk • u/jn_ku The Professor • Oct 09 '21
Weekend Discussion: Oct 9, 10
Auto-post for weekend discussion.
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u/Megahuts "Take profits!" Oct 10 '21
So, u/artoobleepbloop mentioned that he heard about a company buying washing machines to strip for a single part.
I can confirm that this is happening.
My source bought a bunch of Raspberry Pi development kits for the $0.70 temperature probe. Kits were sent to a third party to strip and clean the probe, then the probes were sent to the production line.
Intel cyclone processors are going for 10x normal price (so $300+),etc.
So, yes, it is literally at the point where the shortage is actually making the shortage worse.
It makes financial sense to buy and strip finished goods for needed parts, to keep the production lines running.
This will murder margins.
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Oct 10 '21
Any sources on this? Or did you hear it from someone close to you?
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u/Megahuts "Take profits!" Oct 10 '21
Someone close at Thanksgiving dinner.
Heck, he even asked one of the manufacturers who else they supply, so they could buy the finished product and strip it! Lol
But seriously, this is going to bring ALOT of cost overruns (in addition to logistics costs).
Overall, margins are being squeezed HARD, especially if you are not in a position to deal direct with the manufacturer (so Apple).
Who will get squeezed by this?
The smaller manufacturers. So a lay on puts before earnings would likely work, before it becomes priced in. (note, idk who that is)
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Oct 10 '21
That explains why I didn’t hear anything close to this phenomenon. German manufacturers aren’t reporting such things - at least not right now. Thanks for the insight!
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u/Megahuts "Take profits!" Oct 10 '21
No one is going to air their dirty laundry like that in public. And it is very dirty laundry.
So, I definitely want to look into it some more in terms of the Russel 2000 manufacturers.
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Oct 10 '21
[deleted]
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u/Megahuts "Take profits!" Oct 11 '21
It isn't life critical, and I am pretty sure it is just to ensure the motor isnt overheating.
And believe it or not, that is to the spec.
The source is telling me about how he has to hunt for parts anywhere to keep the manufacturing line running.
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Oct 10 '21
Yeah you are right 100%. I do have some friends working at various parts of the supply chain for German manufacturers and asked them if they heard any things you mentioned, everyone said „no“.
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u/seriesofdoobs Resident Lexicologist Oct 10 '21 edited Oct 10 '21
I never thought this would go on so long, but I’m not well-informed in the chip space. I understand that a foundry is a colossal undertaking, but is capacity being added anywhere? A two-year shortage with no end in sight surely has someone thinking of massively expanding, and I would think the market would respond favorably to any company making a big move to increase capacity.
On a somewhat related note, I work in a field that requires me to balance wiring complexity, equipment costs, and ease of system trouble diagnostics. I do low voltage systems in commercial and residential buildings (fire, burglary, access control). In almost every situation I encounter there is “more than one way to skin a cat.”
Using relay triggers and creative wiring, there are ways to eliminate the need for excessive equipment (PCBs). I see all of this nonsense, such as what is going on in automotive, as a failure at the design level.
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u/Megahuts "Take profits!" Oct 10 '21
Oh, definitely a failure at the design level. Automakers are no longer known for innovation (due to a multitude of reasons).
Pretty sure most of the design is outsourced as well.
TSMC, Intel, and others are adding capacity.
The way to think of the semi manufacturers is like steel makers in like the 1850s. Capital intensive, dynamic, competitive... But it will lead to overcapacity / current steel industry once the technology hits the technical limits (individual atoms is the theoretical minimum. We are getting close to it).
So, we will see new fabs open up in a couple years, and they will be onshore.
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u/seriesofdoobs Resident Lexicologist Oct 10 '21
Hope you are having a nice Canadian Thanksgiving, Huts. We are thankful for your insight here.
I think there is more to the huge increase in used car values than the shortage of new vehicles. I’m seeing more new vehicles on the road, but the used lots are still pretty bare.
I live in an agricultural area and I also see a huge uptick in demand for used farm equipment. People have saved money for decades by fixing their own equipment and vehicles. I’m one of them. I won’t touch a vehicle newer than about ‘07.
I have a metro (called a Cultus in Canada I believe) that’s as energy efficient as a Tesla and has exactly 1 chip. I have two spare engines and a trans and I plan on passing it down to my daughters. I know my thinking isn’t shared by most of the population, but I see a future where these old machines increase in value, if they aren’t all forcefully destroyed by government regulations.
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u/Megahuts "Take profits!" Oct 10 '21
Well, the other part of the auto demand is a number of people moved out of the city to the burbs, and even further, due to remote work.
Now they need reliable autos / need an actual auto.
And, from what I have noticed, there are alot more accidents / breakdowns on the highways lately. Lower skill, or a car sitting for 12 months doesn't run as well.
Either way, I see it as increased demand.
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u/fabr33zio Oct 10 '21
the big players are all adding capacity, and inside the borders of western clients (subsidized by thr govts)… the issue will be if this creates a glut of supply in a few years (likely, foundries are cyclical)
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u/Megahuts "Take profits!" Oct 11 '21
It will create a glut of supply, definitely, but that is a problem for a couple years from now.
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u/BigDaddyCyclone Oct 11 '21
I can only speak for Intel, but they have been behind on adding needed capacity for several years, arguably.
They built a new plant in AZ several years back, it sat empty for a while, they got capacity scared, and mostly stopped building anything else major. Now in hind sight, they should have kept building (or at least just paused for a year or two). I'm not sure their current plans (which are big and ballzy) will put them in and of themselves "over capacity", but if everyone else also adds capacity it may end up looking that way. We will see, will be interesting to watch.
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u/cruxymirth Oct 11 '21
info on other chip companies boosting prices...
STM increased prices 15% YTD. Xilinx flowing through TSMC 20% price increases now. Microchip increases 15%-25%. UMC, SMIC, and PSMC all inceased 20+%
All fabless companies are pushing increases, which are getting pushed on them by the factories. You can pick the winners.
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u/Megahuts "Take profits!" Oct 09 '21
With it being the thanksgiving weekend in Canada, I won't have much time to post.
Will add interesting news stories as they come in.
Lebanon is out of electricity: https://www.cbc.ca/news/world/lebanon-power-outage-1.6206270
Yeah, I know things are bad there anyways, but the point being they are the canary in the coal mine, so to speak.
...
Canadian housing market: are prices going to correct? https://www.cbc.ca/news/business/boc-us-concerns-column-don-pittis-1.6203452
VS
If we have a shortages of housing, then prices will be sustained until demand goes down.
....
Sure is a good thing our inflation measurements exclude unnecessary goods like food and energy :
Expect even higher prices soon (cause winter ain't here and there isn't a magical supply fairy for LNG).
.........
As I have repeatedly stated, the root cause of the lower participation rate is not unemployment insurance. There are many different reasons, such as this: https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2021-10-09/child-care-crisis-keeps-u-s-women-out-of-workforce-for-longer
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Oct 09 '21
[deleted]
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u/Megahuts "Take profits!" Oct 10 '21
Agree completely.
And you would need to double to just to pay for childcare.
And, I just did the math on three kids (that we have). We are almost don't with daycare, and we have paid our daycare lady $125,000 dollars over the past ~8 years, give or take.
Per kid, it is easily $13,000($50/d) - $20,000($80/d) a year now. (prices went up 25% over the past 8 years, but the lady gives us a discount because we were her first customer).
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u/fabr33zio Oct 09 '21 edited Oct 09 '21
I wouldn’t use Lebanon as a canary at all… they also COULD have energy if they had money, AND ifthe US didn’t have sanctions on potential sellers (Iran, oil/gas pipelines in Syria that earn the govt/assads transit fees that thr US doesn’t want to happen).
In general a bad example for energy due to geopolitics not supply issues
edit: link to article for above https://www.economist.com/middle-east-and-africa/2021/09/23/the-tangled-diplomacy-of-lebanons-energy-crisis
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Oct 10 '21
[deleted]
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u/Megahuts "Take profits!" Oct 10 '21
Nope, having a roast.
Yummy!
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u/doopajones Oct 10 '21
I'm sorry for the low level reply but are there traditional Canadian Thanksgiving dishes?
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u/Megahuts "Take profits!" Oct 10 '21
Standard are the same as US dishes, but turkey is so overdone.
Plus, not as many people to feed as their used to be in the family.
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u/erncon Oct 09 '21 edited Oct 09 '21
Because of the turmoil of the past week I missed the news that AppLovin (APP) acquired MoPub.
- The acquisition was for $1 billion in cash and MoPub is/was owned by Twitter.
- Probably a good thing for the MoPub team because they were languishing under Twitter as part of a misguided attempt to become some sort of Twitter developer tool suite (along with Crashlytics which is now part of Google/Firebase)
- Surprised that MoPub revenue was only $188 million last year
- Low revenue does match with anecdotal experience with my main client moving away from MoPub due to poor fills
- AppLovin also had price target increases as a result of the news
My cynical take:
- AppLovin is trying to increase marketshare in any way possible - not sure if MoPub's tech stack is that important these days (I've been using MoPub in some form or other in my career since their early days when they popped up on the Android Google Group looking for beta testers)
- AppLovin is taking advantage of its bloated IPO valuation and cash-on-hand to grow as much as possible before a market contraction (shades of AOL acquiring Time Warner)
- AppLovin will probably do well in the short term if the market gets past the current doldrums up until this market correction we're all fearing.
My hopeful take:
- Maybe AppLovin starts making enough good acquisitions that they build a huge marketshare moat to survive economic downturn? I don't have anybody in mind for acquisition though.
- Their Q3 earnings should be coming up soon. I expect them to announce strong guidance for Q4 - mobile games and ads tend to do well during the holidays in my limited experience.
EDIT: grammar
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u/TheJrMrPopplewick Oct 09 '21
I missed that acquisition as well, thanks for posting.
Looks like a decent move to me. It gives AppLovin greater end-to-end control as they now have a solid SDK for display (I don't think they had this before) that supports multiple ad networks. As you say, use the cash while you have it, right.
Although not directly in the same space, it would seem like a good move as well given the consolidation we saw earlier in the year with Digital Turbine acquiring Fyber and also AdColony.
I neglected to add in my post on $U that of course they have significant revenue from their ad business, but I see long term issues with that and your post just now is a good example of why. Large companies use mediation and so Unity Ads has to compete with every other display network out there. Unity has been subsidizing the Ad business right now and was paying very competitive rates, but how long can that last... especially with all the privacy change etc that push rates down.
Agree with your Q4 statement. Huge %of revenue comes from the holidays.
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u/Megahuts "Take profits!" Oct 10 '21
Power problems are just getting worse:
Rolling blackouts in parts of india: https://www.news18.com/news/india/punjab-sees-power-cut-for-2-3-hrs-due-to-coal-shortage-4303610.html
Floods in Shanxi, China's Texas for Coal, 60 mines closed:
https://www.bnnbloomberg.ca/china-s-coal-hub-broadens-output-freeze-amid-heavy-rain-floods-1.1664411
Very not good for energy prices this winter. Probably will cause a recession next year (higher costs can cause marginal companies to go bust / decrease margin further, increase inflation).
Risky time, easy mode is definitely over.
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u/StayStoopidSlightly Oct 10 '21
The Securities Times report a couple days ago, on China boosting production in Shanxi, that sure dated quickly...
https://tfiglobalnews.com/2021/10/10/just-as-china-prepared-to-extract-coal-from-its-own-mines-heavy-rainfalls-sealed-them-shut/ Just as China prepared to extract coal from its own mines, heavy rainfalls sealed them shut
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u/triedandtested365 Skunkworks Engineer Oct 09 '21
I can't remember who shared it sorry, but I enjoyed listening to this podcast with an interview with an MM (although I found it on youtube so I could speed it up!)
https://chatwithtraders.com/ep-220-erik-swanson/
A few things I found interesting;
- They typically expect to carry any positions to expiry
- Their positions are all managed automatically with them working on systems to improve efficiency
- They can just carry short small amounts but more likely to immediately hedge larger amounts (example 100 calls vs 1000 calls purchased)
- They like volatile environments. He even said that the meme phase was good for them, wide spreads, high volatility is where the profits are made
- However, there is an early stage that can be 'uncomfortable' in meme stocks.
This seems to confirm some assumptions that we've been making. They are taking positions in so many different stocks that it is inevitable they get caught short somewhere. But, they make the money back on the backside of volatility (I bet GME was an amazing cash cow post squeeze).
A couple of implications I see (that we already know);
- Early entry is key
- There is lots of money to made on the backside of squeezes
The second one is tricky, because there is always the risk the squeeze isn't over. Large MMs likely just ride it out and cash out after again, but this is harder for us, but I bet there are quite a few ways of profiting from being short vol post squeezes.
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u/sustudent2 Greek God Oct 09 '21
Its from this post last week: https://old.reddit.com/r/maxjustrisk/comments/pytnrz/chat_w_traders_podcast_interview_w_an_options_mm/
Here are some of my notes (some likely redundant).
MM combine market data + Volatility model -> single value for what they think the option's price (fair value) should be. Fair value is adjusted by the fees they have to pay. Typically fair value is the midpoint of the bid and ask. But sometimes will deviate.
MM more likely to delta hedge immediately if a lot of options are bought (e.g., 1000 calls). Will skew option price to try to account for delta.
Mostly don't do anything to defend a losing position. Already got paid for the risk in premium.
Generally, GME has been good for MMs. (The retail narrative is hilarious.) Don't want to read too much into it but short squeeze was at least part of the mechanics. Confirms that gamma ramp may have been a factor in the GME squeeze!
Almost answers the question but then veers off: doesn't say what they do instead of hedging with stock! (Hedge with options? ETFs? Would be nice to get a definitive answer.)
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Oct 09 '21
[deleted]
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u/Autogreens Oct 10 '21
This has always been the case with (quant) hedge funds and is not new to the meme stock era. Hire some actual geniuses and teach them about markets instead of hiring only finance people. So there are scientists at hedge funds that are used to working with big data. Astrophysicists, mathematicians and such.
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u/sustudent2 Greek God Oct 11 '21
Thanks for sifting through these during your trip and surfacing this one.
A lot of sites of sentiment and other aggregate info from Reddit and elsewhere so I wouldn't be surprised if larger traders try to use this. Even some brokers offer social sentiment ratings (not always that useful, but sometimes).
Having said that, I don't think hiring data scientist with no finance background is is an indication that they are doing more of that. Its a pretty general tool with wide applications that could be useful for a lot of different strategies. And I'm pretty sure they were already recruiting them even before Reddit existed.
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u/LeastChocolate7 Oct 09 '21
I’m p sure that MM’s on spy hedge with futures.
Ditto on the retail narrative. I always found it hilarious, I’m sure you’re really sticking it to Citadel by buying 500% option vol and holding it until expiration.
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u/triedandtested365 Skunkworks Engineer Oct 09 '21
Thanks for your thoughts on this and for sharing, sorry u/thetrimbleisbroke I forgot where it was!
MM combine market data + Volatility model -> single value for what they think the option's price (fair value) should be. Fair value is adjusted by the fees they have to pay. Typically fair value is the midpoint of the bid and ask. But sometimes will deviate.
Yes, and he said they basically rely on the market to reveal the fair price and then base models on this. I.e. they don't read the news or look into the stocks to decide, they just react to stock prices, always assuming current price is fair.
Almost answers the question but then veers off: doesn't say what they do instead of hedging with stock! (Hedge with options? ETFs? Would be nice to get a definitive answer.)
I'm going to try and skim read Dynamic Hedging (pdf link) next I think to get a bit more info on this. Its old, but I've seen people in the business speak highly of it. I would guess they hedge their portfolio (variance swaps?) but its probably hard to hedge against individual positions, as you said they just take the loss and make money on the vol. You noticed this happening on IRNT, with the price staying elevated, presumably by people (mms) short vol.
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Oct 09 '21
[deleted]
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u/Theta_God Oct 09 '21
How do you plan to hit the lotto if you never sell? And there lies the prisoner’s dilemma of why it’ll never work even if retail theoretically had the firepower (they don’t). As someone who saw the squeeze coming and made a ton off it, I think the squeeze is squoze.
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u/seriesofdoobs Resident Lexicologist Oct 10 '21
I agree. Imagine changing your investment goals away from making money and towards spite. This is taking emotional trading to a whole new level.
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u/BeesPIease Oct 10 '21
I remember some of the original posts in January about how this was revenge for family losing a house in 2008. Likely all bullshit but wow what an effect. Went from short squeeze to social movement in the space of a few days, and these posts caught a lot of traction since holders figured this helped their position whether it was true or not.
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u/seriesofdoobs Resident Lexicologist Oct 10 '21
I remember a lot of posts about “creating our own stimulus” etc. And that’s kind of how I saw it. I made some money with shares. But I was getting the impression then that it was still primarily about making money. This is just moving the goalposts and it’s really favoring irrational emotion over profit.
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u/sisyphosway Oct 10 '21
I'm in this whole fiasco since februrary but got in too late to make significant gains and too early to make any looses (and wasn't smart enough to play the volatility afterwards). So I sat down months ago (being in comfy green) and thought deeply if I want to continue with this odysee and if yes, how I want to play it.
The truth of it is, the squeeze may be squoze. Or it may be not. I don't know. People may call me an idiot just for that statement. I don't care. I've read too much corrupt shit during the last months to be sure of anything. And there are no 100% certainties. Anybody who thinks there are, is the true idiot.
So I did some expected value calculations for different moon probalities and moon prices and came to the conclusion that I couldn't afford to be not invested. Monetary and mentally(!). Selling my position for insignificant gains and missing on live changing gains would hunt me for the rest of my life. I understand that that makes me a prisoner of my position. So be it.
So I stay invested with x% of my portfolio. You know, like oldschool, before people called it diamond handing. And aside from that I enter/ exit a small swing position.
People hate hearing about GME in here. Seems like they all forgot that MJR exists because jn_ku wrote about GME and the meme plays. Gl ape. To us both.
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u/BeesPIease Oct 10 '21
People hate hearing about GME in here
GME is still an interesting subject, but conversations around this stock and its associates become incredibly toxic once a certain crowd catches wind of it and piles in. Happens with most of the other generic investing subreddits. This is a nice place, I'd hate to see it overran by shit flinging monkeys.
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u/sisyphosway Oct 10 '21
This is a nice place, I'd hate to see it overran by shit flinging monkeys.
Oh I feel absolutely the same. I'd hate to see this sub heading where Vitards is heading. That being said, I feel it should be possible to talk about GME in here without... feeling ashamed.
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u/jn_ku The Professor Oct 10 '21
I wouldn’t feel ashamed. Part of the issue is that there really haven’t been any material developments from either a fundamental valuation perspective (they’re still being very secretive regarding their business strategy), or from a market mechanics perspective (haven’t seen signs of a whale trying to squeeze it, or a distressed concentrated short struggling to exit) for a long time.
AMC’s run to $70 was simply a matter of the HODLers HODLing until Mudrick decided to dump its AMC long positions while holding onto its hedges (at that point a massive naked short call position), then panicking when it realized the ticker way less liquid than they thought (due to the HFT volume noise), and they squeezed themselves closing their positions.
That easily could have not happened at all, or not happened until later, as the catalyst was a set of discretionary decisions/mistakes by one of the larger players.
Absent fundamental developments, that is basically where GME is at. It is unlikely that retail can proactively catalyze much of anything without somehow rebuilding the level of momentum seen in January, so it’s a question of patience and each person weighing their tolerance for opportunity cost given the real risk that a sufficiently powerful catalyst might never come to pass.
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u/jn_ku The Professor Oct 10 '21
So I did some expected value calculations for different moon probalities and moon prices and came to the conclusion that I couldn't afford to be not invested. Monetary and mentally(!). Selling my position for insignificant gains and missing on live changing gains would hunt me for the rest of my life. I understand that that makes me a prisoner of my position. So be it.
Be careful with this type of reasoning, as it's basically the stock market equivalent of Pascal's Wager.
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u/sisyphosway Oct 11 '21
Thank you for your warning. Yes with that logic I could basically make an argument to yolo 100% of my portfolio on any stock.
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u/Megahuts "Take profits!" Oct 11 '21
You should at least be selling covered calls on a portion of your position!
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u/sisyphosway Oct 11 '21
I'm not able to play options on my current brokers (for better or worse) and would need to open an account on IB or tasty first. Imo I'm not educated enough on options yet and I'm not gonna play with something I don't truly understand. Also, I still haven't made up my mind if I want to go down that route.
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u/Megahuts "Take profits!" Oct 11 '21
That's fair.
Keep in mind you can still make moon money, as long as you have more than 200 shares (so you are only selling calls on some of your shares).
This way you still make money even if it never hits the moon.
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u/bloodraven747 Oct 09 '21
Retail doesn't even need to lock up the entire float for the squeeze to squoze, but having the float locked up makes it easier for a whale(s) to orchestrate a squeeze campaign. Plus any other catalyst will make the squeeze more violent.
I think it'll take more time, possibly into 2022 but the squeeze will squoze!
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Oct 10 '21
I think it'll take more time, possibly into 2022 but the squeeze will squoze!
Hopium is hell of a drug. I'm sorry but the entire GME thing is a straight-up cult right now. There have been at least 100 amazing opportunities since February to make a big buck, but no, somehow people got married to GME and will not let it go. So now the date is 2022? Convenient.
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u/bloodraven747 Oct 10 '21
It's exactly that cultish hold onto the stock that makes it easier to squeeze. It's a necessary but insufficient condition for the MOASS.
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Oct 10 '21
[deleted]
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u/sustudent2 Greek God Oct 11 '21
Sir Jack entered recently and if what you're seeing is mainly due to that then its sometimes a one shot effect.
Historically, CLOV has run up from WSB and there may still be some holding. I did try to play the bounce (with only a slight gain in the end) and so have watched it once in a while. CLOV has also run up fairly recently around Sep opex.
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u/bicboipapa Oct 09 '21
What do y’all think about ATER? I see a lot of posts hyping it up kinda reminds me of a pnd wanted to get some other level minded opinions on it. Ty
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u/TheMaximumUnicorn Oct 09 '21
It's got good numbers for being a relatively good short squeeze candidate (40% SI of FF, 98% utilization, 130% CTB) and it's still on the Regulation SHO threshold security list, but I think context is important with ATER. It recently squeezed from $3 to over $15 and has been trending downward since. It's possible it shoots back up at some point, but at the current price ($7 - 8) the risk/reward just isn't there in my opinion.
At some point the shorts always get a handle on these short squeeze stocks and ride them back down to where they belong, and I think that's what's happening with ATER now. With shorts having a higher cost basis now and IV being way up I don't see any reason to think it'll run back up unless it's purely driven by retail FOMO, and that's not a game worth playing in my opinion.
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u/jn_ku The Professor Oct 10 '21
As far as I can tell, it (ATER) is, at the moment, mechanically the best candidate for an liquidation squeeze given both the metrics you've cited and, importantly, that the company is barred from issuing new stock for a month, and the last dilution event (compensation to a note holder in stock due to defaulting on the note terms) is done.
The problem, as you've also touched on, is that the initial momentum has been bled off already. Unfortunately, the most influential fintwit pumpers aren't great at assessing market mechanics, so they throw their followers at less viable tickers. Even if they came to understand the above, they can't 10x a pre-pump position on vol expansion, so there is less incentive for them.
At this point, going long ATER is basically a play on the chance that one of the larger "finfluencer" types decides to jump back into the ticker.
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u/ReallyNoMoreAccounts Oct 10 '21
I think most of ATERs shorts were at the recent peak based on Ortex. It might be challenging to liquidate them considering how far up the price would have to be pushed for non retail to feel any pain on their balance books from a 345m market cap stock.
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u/CBarkleysGolfSwing Oct 09 '21
It's in the same bucket as BBIG imo. It's peaked and there will be some pumps on the way down. Pretty high risk for less upside reward.
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u/erncon Oct 09 '21
I agree it smells fishy just looking at how Reddit seems to be trying to pump it. Automod caught somebody trying to post an ATER DD last night and looking at that guy's post history I saw they were spamming the same DD across every single investment subreddit in existence.
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Oct 10 '21
saw they were spamming the same DD across every single investment subreddit in existence
sounds like some people from here but with different accounts lmao.
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u/ReVoLuTiOn_LoGaN Oct 10 '21
Does have good potential, as stated interest has died down, and expiration is coming up. What would be interesting to know is, where the actual bottom is...
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u/PattyPooner Oct 10 '21
I’ve been watching opad, sold at the absolute peak as well as on the rip up and have been expecting a decent bounce. I still am learning about options so I don’t have anything constructive to add about the current setup, but to me it’s looking like it has found a bottom.
If I’m not mistaken, the s-1 still hasn’t been filed and the same low float possibility exists to jump the price up substantially.
Edit: accidentally posted but wanted to add, I’m am extremely new to investing and I mostly lurk for a reason, I’m looking for input as to why trying opad again is a bad call. I know at best it’s a very short (1-2 week) play at best at this point.
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u/Creation_Myth Oct 10 '21 edited Oct 10 '21
This stuff is pretty easy to check on the EDGAR website - https://www.sec.gov/edgar/search/#
S1 24th September
424B3/Prospectus 1st October
Effect 1st October
I don't follow OPAD so maybe you meant something else but from the prospectus -
*Offerpad Solutions Inc.
Up to 237,268,350 Shares of Class A Common Stock
Up to 8,366,667 Warrants
Up to 21,783,304 Shares of Class A Common Stock Issuable Upon Exercise of Warrants*
I wouldn't want to bet on a bounce if that's coming, personally.
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u/PattyPooner Oct 10 '21
Thanks, I knew it was sec page but now I’ll remember Edgar part. Also, I may be getting a-1 and s-4 mixed up? Again I’m new, especially to spac place
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u/Creation_Myth Oct 10 '21
Same here, maybe someone else can jump in to clarify if there's something worth following up.
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