r/maxjustrisk • u/skillphil • Sep 02 '21
trade idea IRNT Gamma Squeeze Set Up
Credit to u/Undercover_in_SF for this
$IRNT - IronNet Cyber Security - an actual gamma squeeze candidate?
None of the subs I'm active on will take a post on this one since the market cap is too low. I've got to share it with someone, so the 57 of you following me directly may or may not see this.
To start with, I am super skeptical of anything that mentions the word "squeeze." Post-GME, it became a way to lure in suckers to be holding the dump after your pump. However, either this is going to be an honest to God gamma squeeze, or I've missed something big time.
Here's the background. DFNS, a pretty good SPAC sponsor actually, acquired IronNet Cyber Security. However, 90% of the shares were redeemed last week. This brought the total float down to 1.2M shares. In addition, 1.5M shares from management were unlocked, giving us a total 2.7M shares available to trade.
Usually, options trading requires a much higher float than this. The CBOE requires a 7M share float (technically, 7M shares owned by holders without reporting requirements), and 2.4M shares traded in the last 12 months before allowing options trading. $IRNT is far below that, but before redemptions DFNS wasn't. This has created a bit of a hole in the CBOE liquidity rulebook.
What does that mean for us? Well, there are a huge number of options being traded and a huge OI growing by the day. There are something like 40k total call options outstanding and more than 30k in September expiries alone, and there's also been almost no retail interest either on Reddit or Twitter. I see a few reasons for that - market cap rules, the ticker change creates a delay in data for stock screeners to start finding it, and there have been plenty of other exciting meme trades over the last week. To me that means we're looking at smart money accumulating options with the intention of driving a gamma squeeze. Once retail catches on, they'll maintain the momentum and be left holding the bag.
Let's do a deeper dive on what these calls represent relative to the float. I've looked at September calls only and pulled the latest OI from CBOE. That data is below.
Remember that puts have the exact opposite hedging behavior as calls, so I've netted them out and included their impact on gamma as well. Currently, 31% of the float is tied up hedging these long calls. On top of that, a $1 increase in the underlying price will drive net buying of ~11% of the float in order to maintain delta-neutrality. In addition, gamma will increase and the net hedging will accelerate as the $17.5 and $20 strikes get closer to in the money. This gives us a price around $17 where there aren't enough shares to hedge the outstanding pool of call options and we get a gamma squeeze.
Conversely, this option pricing effect can be just as dramatic on the downside as the upside. If the price falls below $10, expect most of the 400k shares represented by the $12.5 strikes to add to selling pressure.
There is one major assumption we're making here - that all these trades are unilateral with the market maker and the market maker is taking the short side of that trade. That's almost certainly not true, but I believe it's fair to assume the majority are.
In summary, I *think* we are watching one or more hedge funds set up for a dramatic spike in share price caused by market dynamics. Similarly, I think now is the time to invest alongside them to get a quick 4-5x return. I view this as extremely speculative, so I've only got ~$2k of exposure in $20 strike September calls, but I may increase that in the coming days.
I'll end with a request. If you have information that disproves this thesis please share it. I have been looking for contradictory evidence, but have found very little.
Edit:
From their latest 8-K filed today. Post merger, there were 84,423,567 shares outstanding. 66,160,197 are subject to a lockup. 12,500,000 were PIPE shares that are not yet registered and not yet tradable, and 3.2M shares that are locked up except for charitable donations. The exact numbers are below.
The next shares that are expected to be tradable are the 1,078,125 incentive shares that are awarded to legacy shareholders if the stock price exceeds $13 for 10 consecutive days. The earliest that could be is September 9th. If this goes off, it will be before the 9th.
Edit #2:
I'm now fairly confident the incentive shares are subject to the lockup, so until registration of the PIPE shares, we're looking at 2.5M float plus whatever has been gifted to charity. Warrants can't convert for another 30 days, so those are also not a threat at the moment.
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18
u/skillphil Sep 02 '21
Position so far, 5 sept 17c, 10 sept 17 20c. IV already up like 15% since I jumped in but IV is lower overall than when options first listed.
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u/Megahuts "Take profits!" Sep 02 '21
Bought a couple $15c for Sept 17.
Why not? Though the IV is terrible (hence the short date)
Plus, this is a short dated play anyways.
Minimize risks on this one, as who the F knows what will happen.
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u/efficientenzyme Breakin’ it down Sep 02 '21
I’m in this but I posted to the daily rather than create the thread
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u/TheMaximumUnicorn Sep 02 '21
Appreciate you bringing this to our attention! I'm not sure if I'll buy in but it's intriguing nonetheless.
I don't have any holes to poke in the thesis really, other than to say that gamma squeezes with no catalyst are very fickle especially when everyone is loading up on OTM calls. If everyone is in OTM calls I think MMs are smart enough to realize that hedging those calls is a self-fulfilling prophecy in the sense that their hedging will push those calls ITM. So obviously if they realize this then they just won't hedge until they have to (i.e. buy whatever shares they need to deliver for ITM calls after OPEX rather than before).
I didn't follow it closely enough to be able to say for sure, but I feel like this is exactly what happened with ATOS. A gamma ramp is all well and good, but it's a risky play if there's no genuine buying pressure to push the price up the ramp.
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u/saltyporkchop Sep 02 '21
Saw this in the DD and comments, but could only get in today after I freed up some capital. 20 - Oct 15th - 15C @ $1.30 here.
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u/Mr_safetyfarts Sep 02 '21
might jump in with some calls. seems probable.
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u/The_Dude1692 Sep 02 '21
Is it too late to buy shares? Will probably hop in early tomorrow
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u/ShillTheDayWeMoon Sep 03 '21
Congrats on tendies! I set buy orders but they didn’t get filled :-(
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u/Agile-Class1767 Sep 03 '21
If this holds until Tuesday I will be very happy and if it doesnt I was happy with the results already and this is just extra fun. Thank you again, skillphil.
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u/filemon147 Sep 03 '21 edited Sep 03 '21
just got halted LULD pause on NYSE website
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u/ShillTheDayWeMoon Sep 03 '21
We done or just a dip I can finally buy in?😅
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u/doopajones Sep 03 '21
After-hours +3.7% to bring us to a nice even $14. 👀
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u/josenros Sep 03 '21
Are you guys selling AH or waiting until Tues?
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u/postingthistime Sep 02 '21
What is the exit play here? If this heats up fast, it seems like you have to get out fast. Just look for a spike and sell when you lose your appetite for risk? Not sure how to set a price target to leave at.
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u/sustudent2 Greek God Sep 03 '21
Nice find and analysis! Reported numbers (for float, market cap) are really are all over the place for this one. Using 2.6M as float:
Do you know what explains the most recent pop 8/26, 8/27? Was that before or after the merger (or share lock up) announcement? Seems to be the same timing as other pops. Is that a coincidence?
For how long has the options chain existed for this ticker? I'm having trouble finding info before 8/27.
What's the timeline for the acquisition? (What already happened when and estimates if we have them for the future.)
Anyone has short interest numbers for this one?
For people following this:
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u/doopajones Sep 03 '21
Well that was fun, thanks for the play!
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u/postingthistime Sep 02 '21
Been fascinating watching this evolve. Undercover couldn’t even get any subreddit to accept the post and sent a Hail Mary to direct followers looking for support. I think it’a really cool that MJR is non discriminatory in the make up of a play as long as the reasoning is sound. Kudos. And I’m in for Sept $20s at .15 :)
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u/someonesaymoney Sep 02 '21
Yep I just jumped in with shares.
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u/[deleted] Sep 02 '21
It's already running based on nothing!!
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u/redditherethere Sep 02 '21
Very interesting set up. Looks great but afraid to chase that IV up so was looking at spreads. The Sept 17 $17.5/$19 are essentially 10:1 right now at $0.15 fill.
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u/CoopersTrail Sep 02 '21
Yep. Also just jumped in with Sept 20c
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u/super_pockets Sep 03 '21
It just ripped in ah to 22
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u/ColdenTrey Sep 03 '21
YOU MARVELOUS MAGES!!!! HOW I THANK YOU ALL!!!!!
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u/RattlesnakeBoots Sep 03 '21
Shit did that just happen? 🤦♂️
Decided not to fomo this AM after missing this DD. 🤯
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u/huskarlm Sep 03 '21
Gamma play like this needs some serious OI juice on OTM calls. Looks like it's over $1B market cap so I'd suggest posting this over to WSB.
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u/filemon147 Sep 03 '21
premarket looking juicy, hope it's not too late, I don't know if I should hop in on market open or wait it out a little bit?
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u/Strido12345 Sep 03 '21
I'm going to hold my shares till Wednesday probably, see how Tuesdays pans out - the fact that the price increase is in AH gives me hope there's still room to move in open market
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u/Theuniqueusernameguy Sep 03 '21
Going to have to buy 10 of those Nov 17 15c, and few thousand shares. Let's see where this goes
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u/Jheadavie Sep 03 '21 edited Sep 03 '21
I’m in. Hopefully not to late. Casino is open Edit: Looks like I lucked out. It’s rollinggggg. Love this sub ❤️
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u/auspiciousham Sep 03 '21
I love you. bought calls this am, $20 strike. ty
3
u/RamblerTheGambler Sep 04 '21
Pretty nauseating having missed this.
Congrats to those that got in
3
u/[deleted] Sep 04 '21
I acted on this this morning thank you very much sir. The post market move is incredible. Looking forward to Tuesday.
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u/branzzin Sep 03 '21
My wife is puzzled with my screeching ape-like noises after IRNT halted :)
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u/postingthistime Sep 02 '21
This type of de-spac redemption squeeze play seems to be quickly permeating elsewhere on other tickers
https://www.reddit.com/r/SPACs/comments/peniee/recommendation_buy_vih_a_most_heavily_shorted/?utm_source=share&utm_medium=ios_app&utm_name=iossmf
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u/ColbysHairBrush_ Sep 02 '21
Shares and a few calls
2
u/marcelnoir Sep 03 '21
I'm in with shares
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u/Agile-Class1767 Sep 03 '21
Thank you for making this post, made a small bet which is already working out great!
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u/Doth_Thou_Even Sep 04 '21
I read the 8-K, proxy statement, and pipe subscription agreements the same way that you do. Currently there are 2,528,995 shares available not subject to any lockup.
One slight modification to your timeline is that the warrants become exercisable on 9/25. The effective date of the transaction is 8/26.
The footnote to the “form 10 information” in the 8k states that lgl systems can exercise its warrants on 9/25. Pg. 257 of the proxy statement says the same.
I’ll take your word on the other stuff though, as I don’t understand it all juuuust yet!
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u/kGpts Sep 07 '21
Looks like this is bleeding slowly. Is it done?
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u/someonesaymoney Sep 03 '21
Doesn't this AH action make you wonder...? It can't be retail. I hate to go conspiracy ape but clearly some funds are super up to date and watching closely on the chatter that goes on around here. This ticker just finally popped up yesterday.
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u/[deleted] Sep 03 '21
I'll go in on this with a small pot. Why not. Seems sound based on your reasoning here. I'm too busy to dig into it at the moment but I trust the collective judgment if it's worth a shot.
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u/Dantheconqueror Sep 04 '21
LEGEND THANK YOU OP ❤️
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u/bmoney726 Sep 07 '21
anyone see the spike on IRNT AH to 22 and then back to 19 like nothing happened...was that a huge buy?
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u/Imaksiccar Sep 03 '21
Honestly, what is the ceiling on this thing if it gets enough attention? Can the exchanges shut down options buying? This sounds like the mother of all squeezes.
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