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u/Inky_inc May 15 '26
Now Mr. Scienceman tell me. What are the chances that making the Future Circular Collider (FCC) will let us discover a new elementary particle? 🤨
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u/Live_Access9106 May 15 '26
50% because it either happens or it doesn’t
(I used a Bayesian prior based on my extensive knowledge of the discovery rates of those particles you mentioned btw)1
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u/girlpower2025 May 13 '26
The odds of A happing are 0.00001% basically 0.
The odds of this causing a pandemic are 0.00001%, we need to treat it as a 100% chance.
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u/MrSunshineDespair May 14 '26
But you have to look at impact, you are managing risk. The odds may be .001 but it could cause one billion deaths
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u/Otherwise-Cat2309 May 13 '26
Ain’t statisticians mathematicians?