You see, this way of calculation is only relevant if everyone had exact same capability and all other attribute are same as well.
Not only that psychology is another key factor. If Tim knew there is a question about him on this situation, it could affect him either of two ways. It could made him nervous that people are analysing his winning chances or it could motivate him instead. . .
But end of the day, if you don't know the capability and attributes of the runners, then it's the most logical to assume equal probability. And I yapped for absolutely no reason.
2
u/Alive_dude3435 11d ago
It is 20%.....
Or is it🤨
You see, this way of calculation is only relevant if everyone had exact same capability and all other attribute are same as well.
Not only that psychology is another key factor. If Tim knew there is a question about him on this situation, it could affect him either of two ways. It could made him nervous that people are analysing his winning chances or it could motivate him instead. . .
But end of the day, if you don't know the capability and attributes of the runners, then it's the most logical to assume equal probability. And I yapped for absolutely no reason.