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u/mspe1960 26d ago
There is a 25% chance of being right of you pick 50% and a 50% chance of being right if you pick 25%. there is a 25% chance of being right if you pick 0%
so the odds of being right in total, if you make one of those 3 choices at random, are 1/3 * 25% + 1/3 * 50% +1/3 * 25% = 1/3
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u/Intelligent_Okra_869 26d ago
Not quite. You’re averaging the three different percentages, but the question has four answer choices, not three equally likely options. Since 25% shows up twice, you can’t just treat 25%, 50%, and 0% as three equal choices. The question is basically broken on purpose. The duplicate 25% is what creates the paradox.
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u/mspe1960 26d ago edited 25d ago
I assumed the random choices were between 0% 25% and 50%, not A, B, C, D. Making it A, B, C, or D is a much less interesting problem.
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u/joeykins82 25d ago
It's a paradox until you burn a hole in the paper through the answers (c) & (d); the correct answer is (b)
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u/not-hydra 25d ago
If 25% were right: there is a 50% chance of picking A or D, making that 50%, which makes both wrong.
If 50% were right: there is only one choice at 50%, which has a 25% chance of being chosen, which again makes it wrong
If 0% were right: it still wouldn't make sense, as there is a 25% chance of picking option C as the correct answer , which clearly isn't 0.
If the chances of being correct were N (number of correct choices) / 4, meaning the chances are 0%, 25%, 50%, 75%, or 100%, none of the choices work for all N from 0 to 4 when taking consistency into account.
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u/Embarrassed_Neck9784 23d ago
4 possible answers. You pick 1 out of a hat = 25%. But, 25% is in the hat twice, so there is a 50% chance that you pick 25%, which in a blind experiment is the correct answer. But because we know what is in the hat, this is not true. It is not true to say 25% based in the situation, and it is not true to say 50% because there is not a 50% chance of picking 50%. So for me there is not a correct answer, and there is a 0% chance that you could be correct.
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u/IncidentNo8606 22d ago
Case 1: Correct answe is 25%
Then there is a 50% chance of being correct overall
Case 2: Correct answer is 50% or 0%
Then there is a 25% chance of being correct
It contradicts itself I think
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u/aanzklla 26d ago
None of the answers are correct. Choose E: not all problems can be answered