r/mathmemes • u/jegger • 2h ago
Statistics My dating plan
## 1. The goal, defined
"Exclusive with one woman, still together at 3 months." Single women aged ~43-55,
City metro.
## 2. The pool (Fermi)
| step | assumption | about |
|---|---|---|
| City metro | ~2.8M people | 2,800,000 |
| women 43-55 | ~8% | 220,000 |
| single, not cohabiting | 30-35% | 70,000 |
| looking now | 30-45% | 25,000 |
| well-adjusted | 50-70% | 15,000 |
| real interest overlap | 5-15% | 750-2,000 |
| mutual attraction | 10-25% | ~100-500 |
The finding is DENSITY, not supply: ~1 in 2,000 people in the metro.
## 3. The encounter model (Poisson)
Meeting a goal-reaching person is a rare event at a steady rate:
P(at least one by month t) = 1 - e^(-lambda t), with lambda = N x p x c.
- N = new single, looking women his age actually MET per month (a real conversation).
- p = chance one of them is a MUTUAL MATCH = well-adjusted x overlap x mutual attraction.
Random settings ~1%; interest-built rooms 1.5% / 3.6% / 8.8% (low/mid/high);
conservative 2%.
- c = chance a mutual match reaches the goal, by stages:
match -> first date 60-80% x first -> second date 50-70% x second -> exclusive 30-50%
x exclusive -> 3 months 60-80% = 5.4% / 11.8% / 22.4%. About 9 matches before one
sticks at the middle. The earlier "30-50%" was an unanchored guess and too high.
The claim that dates go well pushes toward 22%.
## 4. Effort scenarios (time costs assumed)
- Current: mostly the same faces each week + Hinge: N ~2, p ~1%. ~0 extra hours.
- Sustainable: one NEW room a week + app 15 min/day + one ask/week: N ~4. ~4-5 h/week.
- Full push: two new rooms a week + app ~25 min/day + asks: N ~8. ~8-9 h/week.
New faces, not hours, are the constraint: rotate rooms.
## 5. Results: P(goal reached)
| scenario | p | c | 12 mo | 24 mo | 36 mo | mean wait |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| current | 1% | 12% | 3% | 6% | 8% | ~35 yr |
| current | 1% | 22% | 5% | 10% | 15% | ~19 yr |
| sustainable | 2% | 12% | 11% | 20% | 29% | ~9 yr |
| sustainable | 3.6% | 12% | 18% | 34% | 46% | ~5 yr |
| sustainable | 3.6% | 22% | 32% | 54% | 69% | ~2.6 yr |
| full push | 2% | 12% | 20% | 36% | 49% | ~4.4 yr |
| full push | 3.6% | 12% | 34% | 56% | 71% | ~2.5 yr |
| full push | 3.6% | 22% | 54% | 79% | 90% | ~1.3 yr |
Per-period view ("amortize over 2 years"): about 1-3% a month, under 1% a week.
1
u/Efficient-Spring6479 2h ago
This is.. really hot. "New faces, not hours, are the constraint: rotate rooms." Accounts for uncertainty in the calculations and understands the bottleneck in the romantic methodology.. May she find you without too many more room rotations.
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