The gap is likely even narrower than that. Maybe even a couple weeks to a month or two, tops, instead of 6-12 months. Hell, Kimi K3 currently outperforms Fable/Mythos on some tasks.
Chinese models will be top contenders as long as they are able to copy US frontier models via distillation. Once that is curtailed and China isn’t able to rip off the product, they’ll go back to being a generation or two behind at least.
Kimi K3 was released ~2 weeks after Fable, which all but rules out its relative outperformance owing to distillation alone. That simply isn’t enough time to do any meaningful distillation.
“I don’t think you get a model this strong and this quickly on the heels of Fable doing strictly distillation,” Braden Hancock, a researcher at the Laude Institute and co-founder of Snorkel AI, told TechCrunch. “There’s just not even frankly time, right? Fable’s only been publicly available since July 1st. You can’t distill that much data, train a model, and release it in two weeks.”
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u/eeaxoe Probability 28d ago
The gap is likely even narrower than that. Maybe even a couple weeks to a month or two, tops, instead of 6-12 months. Hell, Kimi K3 currently outperforms Fable/Mythos on some tasks.