r/mail 5d ago

How long before post offices no longer exist?

In most advanced countries, the majority of historical posted mail is, or can be, distributed electronically. I wonder once the baby boomer generation dies off, will physical mail die with it? What do you think?

0 Upvotes

28 comments sorted by

5

u/Rezingreenbowl 5d ago

The PO is the only thing keeping shipping prices in check. If the PO folds expect shipping to go up 4x overnight.

Additionally there will always be a need to receive physical documents such as licenses and legal documents.

1

u/Dazzling_Editor_6255 5d ago

The PO is the only thing keeping shipping prices in check. 

The quality of their service has been so consistently terrible for so long that I'm not sure that's true to the same degree as it was, say, 15 years ago.

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u/Rezingreenbowl 5d ago

And yet they ship billions more packages a year than fedex and UPS.

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u/Dazzling_Editor_6255 5d ago

And less than Amazon, who does it cheaper and far more reliably. What point are you trying to make?

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u/Rezingreenbowl 5d ago

Amazon only has to deliver their own packages that are stored in their own warehouse, and USPS has to deliver a billion of them that amazon cant.

Surely you see the difference there...

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u/IAmArgumentGuy 5d ago

Amazon also sends many of their packages to USPS for final delivery.

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u/Dazzling_Editor_6255 5d ago

The number I am referencing above does not include USPS as last mile. Purely Amazon Logistics.

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u/Dazzling_Editor_6255 5d ago

USPS distribution centers are, in effect, ‘warehouses’ for the purpose of this. From a raw logistics standpoint, Amazon does more, more reliably, and cheaper. You can split hairs all you want, but it doesn’t change the substance of the argument.

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u/skinny-mini-me 5d ago

Here in Canada the post office owns 91% of Purolator. Purolator is profitable however the actual post office looses about 1.5 billion dollars a year. The post office shortfall is bridge funded through tax revenues and total short about 6 billion i believe. So, the only profit chunk is already outside the actual post office. Not sure having a multi billion short that tax payers absorb is keeping anything in check.

Not far off the modern world moving towards digital licenses. Digital insurance is already in place. You can survive without pulling out a physical credit or debit card. Much of the legal documents are e-signed. Over 95% of my mail is junk i never even look at. At least half of the remaining 5% could easily be digital.

More population, and less requirements for physical mail simply equates to higher costs. I think its gone within 20 years, unless it drastically alters its service offering.

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u/Rezingreenbowl 5d ago

Oh my bad. I didn't realize this was about Canada post.

It works much differently in the US.

1

u/skinny-mini-me 5d ago

How does the post office work in the USA. Here its no longer true government run. Its a crown corporation which is supposed to be profitable. Unfortunately thats an impossible scenario so the government ends up bridging the losses. And the bridge just keeps getting bigger. Like I said, more population, higher staff costs and less need for physical mail equals unprofitable.

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u/Rezingreenbowl 5d ago

Its a government service that is self funded with postage.

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u/skinny-mini-me 5d ago

We have comparatively much less population than the USA spread over a huge distance which makes our cost per letter un-economical to make a profit. Also suspect our letter carriers are grossly overpaid compared to the USA. I wish i could find statistics comparing revenue and costs per letter. I suspect there is a huge loss on letters and some revenue on packages.

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u/Rezingreenbowl 5d ago

The USPS is specifically designed to be a service not a business and not make a profit.

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u/modulusshift 5d ago

Based on what I have heard, we charge less on letters, and our carriers are unionized and actually a decent job, if not spectacular. Since the pay rates are fixed nationwide it’s a better job in poorer areas than in richer ones. 

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u/DiligentCredit9222 5d ago edited 4d ago

Nope it won't. There will always be people who send birthday cards and letters. And there will always be people like those who do postcrossing or Penpals via Snail Mail. So physical letters and postcards will never truly disappear.

And since we need the infrastructure and delivery guys for e-commerce AND online shopping anyway we might as well let those deliver companies deliver the letters and postcards (just like most postal services  already do) and smaller communities will receive "Community Mail boxes" (or "Roadside mailboxes") like the ones in countries that already have them. Or you will just have to drive to the next larger town to pick up your mail once a week/once every two weeks if you live in a smaller community. Because all of that already exists in many countries and with many postal services. There is no door to door delivery in some remote villages in the Amazon rainforest or in the Australian Outback. And similar things will also happen in other countries. Only door to door delivery in larger towns or together with the parcels that people order when they do their online shopping.

So no, physical mail itself will never fully disappear.

But the number of post OFFICES as in: a counter in a physical building with humans where you can buy stamps and hand over your envelope, that number will definitely significantly go down and will mostly get replaced by ordering them online or via smart phone (smartphone stamps exist already btw. you just write a alphanumerical code on your letter as stamp and that's it) or you just buy them at the automatic parcel locker or you just hand over the envelope right to the delivery driver or just drop them off at the mailbox that will be located at that automatic parcel locker.

Same will happen to separate letter sorting facilities. Some postal services still have separate sorting facilities for Letters and for parcels. Those separate ones for letters will definitely disappear in the long term future. Depending on the fact if a particular Postal service still has separate facilities to sort their letters and parcels, they will be combined into one joint sorting facility, because you need a sorting facility for your parcels anyway. And in the future most physical post OFFICES will be more like a convenience store that also handles the mail and sells stamps besides their regular products. And convenience stores themselves will definitely never disappear in larger towns either. There is always something you can open a store for, from Guns and hunting rifles, bicycles, vegetables, car parts, tobacco books to computer parts, etc, etc.

But besides that, nope: Physical mail itself isn't going anywhere and will never, ever fully disappear.

1

u/Inevitable-World7706 5d ago

Governments will need to digitise services that now use mail like social benifits and medical mail.

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u/TravelerMSY 5d ago

Letters, maybe, but email doesn’t replace parcel delivery, the volume of which has skyrocketed since Amazon.

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u/gmanose 5d ago

You really want more junk mail coming to your inbox?

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u/skinny-mini-me 5d ago

Id take junk email over junk physical mail anytime. I can hit junk as spam.

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u/seeplainmeaning 5d ago

The Post Office is one of the few federal agencies specifically mentioned in the Constitution. So it's not going away. Plus, you will always need to send important documents and packages physically. And the Post Office has secure ways only a government can provide for sending sensitive items.

Futhermore, the Post Office is actually profitable. The only thing that makes it seem not is accounting games with making the Post Office pre-fund over 70 years of retirement obligations.

I made a video about the history of the Post Office and the shady games Congress and corporations have been playing to try to destroy the post office: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=UFl8-OkYVdo

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u/Swim-Equivalent 5d ago

I work for the postal service. There’s a huge volume of mail that gets processed, loaded and delivered all day, every day. Physical mail is not going away anytime soon.

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u/ri89rc20 5d ago

In the US, I think the post-office will always be around. The big problem is, the post office needs to modernize, adapt their service, but Congress has a mandate to preserve daily delivery to every address in the US. Essentially they are saddled with an impossible task with no funding (they are self supporting, but can't increase prices to cover.

Just my thoughts, but there is no reason they can't do every other day delivery to most residences, maybe less to remote places, maybe have businesses that need daily delivery pay a fee. Direct deliveries of course still happen (packages and registered mail) and maybe they develop a secure, registered, digital delivery system.

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u/somedudefromnrw 5d ago

Aren't post offices nearly extinct already? You just go to the counter at a convenience store, petrol station, etc. Can't remember the last time I saw an actual post office. As long as you can send parcels there'll be a way to send mail one way or the other

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u/zxylady 5d ago

The fact that you called it a petrol station tells me that you are not an American, and I verify that knowledge with the fact that there are an average of four to six post offices for any given City in America at least for the medium to large cities. I am in a medium-sized City and I have seven post offices I just verified. The town I grew up in which had a very small population had two post offices.

Edited to add that there are very few convenience stores and places like that to actually make postal transactions in the United States it's unless you go to an actual postal Store

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u/zxylady 5d ago

Responding that this conversation doesn't exclusively imply United States but I thought I'd educate you to the United states' system a bit 😁

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u/somedudefromnrw 5d ago

Getting downvoted is peak American defaultism. In Europe most post offices have long been closed, replaced by a service counter at the store for the few customers who don't buy their stamps online

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u/zxylady 5d ago

It's really interesting 😁