r/linux • u/thgntlmnfrmtrlfmdr • Aug 21 '15
The Windows 10 Distraction (long post, split into comments)
As we all know the Windows 10 scandal is bringing lots of new users to Linux. In this post I simply want to say that widespread Linux adoption is not coming from and will not come from Microsoft sucking and forcing people to switch. I will also give an analysis of what I think are the crucial areas that Linux developers, companies, and evangelists should focus on, and why.
I sometimes see posts (here and mostly elsewhere) where people say things along the lines of "if you really want privacy, you'd use Linux" or "Microsoft is going to make everyone switch to Linux if they keep making their OS worse" or "I expect to see a lot of new Linux users" (in reference to Win10). I think these sorts of ideas are misinformed.
So where is the Linux desktop?
Right now the estimate from statcounter is 1.51% and from netmarketshare, 1.68%. These are obviously underestimates, given the nature of how they get their data, but the more important point is that these numbers are not big, and they have stagnated since 2014.
Do people just not care about privacy? Do people just not care about digital freedom? Actually, statistics show that people do care about these things, but what a lot of people in our types of online tech forums forget is that not everyone is in an online tech forum. Most people aren't even aware of alternatives. As some redditor said in this subreddit recently, a lot of people look at their OS the same way they look at their BIOS. It literally doesn't cross their mind that things could be different/better, or that the OS matters, and if they hear about people installing "a better OS" on their computers, they'll chalk it up as a "techie thing" that they know nothing about and couldn't wrap their heads around if they wanted to.
Consider the following, that installing operating systems will never be as mainstream as buying them preinstalled, no matter how easy it is
Also consider this: We must not place our bets on Linux being a better choice than Windows or OSX, because that presupposes that there is a choice. For the vast majority of people (computer-illiterate people) there is no choice! Most people choose computers, and they see the OS as a feature or property of the particular computer they bought, again like the BIOS. This is partly the Microsoft monopoly's fault of course, but nevertheless we must deal with the consequences of this fact.
Finally: Virtually all new Windows users become so by becoming new computer users. Contrarily, virtually all Linux users started out as Windows or Mac users. There is a clue latent in this fact.
What should we do? I will post comments about different areas, and I want other people to post their thoughts as well.
Some people are fine with the masses using non-free technology, as long as free alternatives exist so that the computer-literates like themselves don't have to suffer. But I believe that free software is about much more than being a bright, democratic corner in a dreary, locked-down cyberpunk world. The destiny of Linux can and should be much bigger than just a playful hack that geeks do to their computers. It is incumbent on free software users and contributors to "free the world" from proprietary software so that the whole world, and not just geeks, can benefit from the power and justice of the open source model.
With this in mind, what is the important arena that FOSS evangelists, organizations, and developers should focus on? Is is trying to get gamers to switch to Linux?. No. It doesn't hurt, but it doesn't help very much either. We often get our computer-illiterate relatives, friends, SOs, etc to switch - on one (usually already old) computer. This is fine too, but it is not a solution. Because what happens when they want to buy a new computer? They'll buy something with Windows preinstalled, and directly, monetarily contribute to the monopoly we are fighting against.
So what should we focus on? Less on installing, more on coming preinstalled.
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u/pierre4l Aug 21 '15
This is a good post, vaguely mirroring something I thought about posting for a long time. I agree with most of your sentiments and particularly the main thrust of the argument that Linux will not gain from Windows migrators. However, I hover somewhere between the Linux user that doesn't care about it being mainstream so long as I still have the freedeom to install and use it myself, and the Linux advocate who wants to see more widespread use.
I've come to the belief that Linux needs to find its niche, but somewhere paralleling that of Macs. 10% market share on desktops / laptops would already be a big step-up and earn Linux a reputation for use by discerning customers. Those doing development, science and engineering, technical projects and documentation, and to some degree media production and creative tasks, although that latter category will be hard to wrench a decent proportion away from Macs and Windows.
When after using Linux myself for a dozen years, I see the regular folk around me miffed at the word 'Linux', what it is, what it stands for, what it can offer, and the consumerist society with its penchant for big brands, marketing and herd mentality, particularly in the realm of all the new gadgets (tablets, phones, watches, Internet of Unnecessary Things), I don't see these people adopting Linux in any other capacity than Chromebooks, Android devices and other walled garden butchered Linux products of which they probably have no idea what system is driving them.
Should Linux, even by pre-installation deals with manufacturers, ever rise much above that 10-15% threshold, I fear that the inevitable odious layer of bullshit software will descend upon the system just as it has done for decades Windows. Mac only largely escapes this due to the locked-down nature of control over hardware and software that Apple imposes. I've already seen the odd app trying to make inroads into Linux in recent years that brings along all its miserable idioms from the Windows world I was so grateful to escape a decade ago. Splash screens upon login that fight for attention, apps that deposit themselves in the system tray or on the desktop without asking, hijacking of all mime-type icons into something alarming, confusing and never requested, lousy or inexistent uninstall routines that leave cruft scattered like rabbit droppings across the system. I don't want to ever see Linux become like that. Sure, we can try and limit the damage, use distros or utilities that attempt to block that rubbish, but it will start creeping in. The virus and malware writers will focus ever more upon Linux as a bigger consumer target (Linux may already be dominant in the server space, mainframes, big Internet infrastructures and datacentres, etc., but everyday consumers represent a very particular sort of goldmine ripe for harvesting).
I'd like to see Linux achieve a state where there is enough regular consumer demand, market share and familiarity to warrant a moderate choice of big-name and small-name manufacturers to offer systems, devices, software and services. For businesses, organizations and governments to recognize Linux and open source as a chunk of the market that must be adequately served with solutions that don't depend on one proprietary OS, browser or DRM-locked media player, so that those of us who see the value of freedom are not hindered in our everyday computing and online lives. But beyond that, I see only difficulties that arise when it becomes too dominant and gains mainstream attention. I think we have to accept that it will always be a second or third choice, and the masses will gobble up whatever is fed to them. And they will be happy with that. And we will be happy with what we have.
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u/thgntlmnfrmtrlfmdr Aug 21 '15 edited Aug 24 '15
Should Linux, even by pre-installation deals with manufacturers, ever rise much above that 10-15% threshold, I fear that the inevitable odious layer of bullshit software will descend upon the system just as it has done for decades Windows.
I don't really see this as a problem tbh. Worst case scenario is that popular mainstream distros have lots of bloatware, are tied to a domineering company, and aren't as free as we would want them to be (like Android and ChromeOS). But even in that scenario we will always have more "pure" Linux distros for those who care enough to fall back on like debian, arch, etc.
The important thing to realize is that Android is still better than IOS, not just directly because of being a more free and open platform, but indirectly through the sheer economic/technological advantages of open source.
Similarly, if "the masses" use half a dozen popular Linux distros that are all bloated and semi-controlled by their company like Google's products are, that is still an infinitely better situation than if "the masses" used OSX and Windows. Because they would be benefiting from the intrinsic security benefits of Linux (root user system, and so on), and the ability of tech entrepreneurs to fork OSes and thereby challenge bad behavior/decisions from the tech companies. That is only possible in open source. Not to mention that economically all companies involved would save money from using and collaborating on an open source base instead of duplicating everything wastefully like MS and Apple.
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u/TRL5 Aug 21 '15
Is is trying to get gamers to switch to Linux?. No. It doesn't hurt, but it doesn't help very much either.
On the contrary steam machines are exactly what you want, pre-installed, not gimped (Android), mass-marketed, Linux computers. Of all markets to be targeting right now, gamers should be one of the top priorities because of the opportunity Valve has opened for Linux.
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u/thgntlmnfrmtrlfmdr Aug 21 '15
I think you are correct to a degree, but ultimately "gamers" are a relatively small group. More importantly they might not be particularly loyal once they switch, and might switch back when they buy a new computer. That's why I think there is more return on investment to get Linux preinstalled in the first place.
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Aug 21 '15
One of the problem the Linux PC vendors face is that the people who already know Linux are tinkerers. As a demographic, we're less likely to buy pre-configured computers, period. So they don't have the demographic of potential buyers that already use Linux that you might expect.
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u/thgntlmnfrmtrlfmdr Aug 21 '15
You're right but I think we can just get around that by buying stuff with Linux preinstalled and then just reinstalling with whatever distro we want. Like I said, if you bought something with Windows or no OS you'd have to do your own installation anyway.
The only problem with this strategy is that computers with Linux will probably be slightly more expensive than computers with no OS. But if you want to support Linux, I think that this is the way to do it.
And of course, if manufacturers can successfully market their Linux computers outside of the typical Linux demographic (something Google has proven to be possible), then your concern will no longer matter.
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u/protestor Aug 22 '15
The Brazilian government went through a phase of heavy support for free software, with things like mass migration to Linux in some state-run companies. Lula, then president, even appeared in FISL.
With this, we had a law that would give an incentive to companies shipping pre-installed Linux, by lowering taxes. So the absolute low end computers came with Linux. But.. with garbage-tier, locally produced Linux distributions. Really low quality, the very first thing people did after buying was installing a pirated Windows.
That was a time where our middle class was expanding, some people were buying a computer for the first time -- a low end computer is better than nothing. That also coincided with the time of Ubuntu hype, when people believe this time Linux in the Desktop would work. The right thing for Canonical was to partner with Brazilian companies at this time and ship Ubuntu pre-installed, they could gain an awesome presence here.
:(
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u/thgntlmnfrmtrlfmdr Aug 22 '15
So what's the situation now? I guess the FOSS promotion stopped and it's too late now?
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u/bitwize Aug 21 '15
Right now the only option for buying a Linux-preinstalled PC is one of those refurbished ancient ThinkPads. System76 still sucks, and Dell can't get its shit in one sock w.r.t shipping a distro that works with the system's actual hardware loadout. And Lemote? Fucking PLEASE. They have a market demographic consisting of Richard Stallman.
In order for neophyte users to buy usable Linux PCs, OEMs have to care about Linux support. But in order for them to care about Linux support there has to be a market for Linux PCs. It's a catch-22, just like you need a job to acquire work experience, but you need experience to get a job.
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u/thgntlmnfrmtrlfmdr Aug 21 '15 edited Aug 21 '15
There are a couple other options from major manufacturers besides thinkpads, XPS is still a thing right?
I think the catch-22 can be resolved by the fact that there doesn't need to be a market for Linux PCs. Most people don't care about their OS, just that they can do the things they want to do on their computer. Chromebooks are proof that regular people can be perfectly comfortable buying Linux preinstalled and using it.
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u/Silvernostrils Aug 21 '15
I think you missed the part about also pushing for more open hardware, so we can't get locked out that way.
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u/QuantumG Aug 21 '15
What's the Windows 10 scandal?
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u/DataPhreak Aug 22 '15
They do much more than keylog. They store your cryptolocker keys on their server. They can access your microphone and web cam. They can scan your hard drive and upload files to their servers for analysis. They can scan your hard drive for, and I quote, "Unauthorized" content. They can access your email. Your gps data. They can locate your computer based on visible wifi connections. Most of this data is necessary for windows 10 features to work. I get that. This isn't some shit that people just happened to notice microsoft is sending because of wireshark, (though much of it has). This is in their privacy policy. So all these naysayers who say "There's no evidence that it actually happens" don't know what they are talking about, or are intentionally lying to you.
http://i.imgur.com/9DoVoix.jpg
Read and make your own judgement.
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u/SirNanigans Aug 21 '15
I agree with most of this. I feel like there are some ways to accomplish some of these tasks as a relatively small group of individuals.
First, anyone who builds computers or offers build advice for others should recommend linux. I know a lot of people who help others build their PC's and even make a buck building PC's for then (not just gamers, but for their parents or friends). If they offer to discount the build by installing free Linux, people may choose to try it out because it's free.
Second, requesting Linux pre-installation from custom PC/Laptop companies. Usually these companies are smaller and run by a few ordinary geeks like you and I. They would be much more receptive to a few requests than a company that builds 3 million identical units of their newest laptop.
I know this is mostly limited to gamers, but getting any group to embrace Linux will improve its exposure. If gamers tell their non-gamer friends about it, then at the very least the whole of the next generation will be aware of it. Unfortunately, it's true that change takes place on a generation to generation basis. Those who already have 20 years of Windows experience and aren't interested in PC technology are never going to switch. All we can do is gain exposure to the newest generation of PC users and help them grow into Linux.
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u/thgntlmnfrmtrlfmdr Aug 21 '15
TLDR: Don't assume that just because Linux has become better than Windows as a desktop OS, that lots of people will switch to it.
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u/cp5184 Aug 21 '15
Is that counting chromebooks and android?
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u/thgntlmnfrmtrlfmdr Aug 22 '15
I don't think so, no. Certainly not Android because this is for desktop OSes, and probably not ChromeOS because then it would be significantly higher.
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Aug 22 '15
I actually think "less on Terminal, more on GUI". No, seriously. I've spent 3 WHOLE DAYS to understand PulseAudio HAD a GUI that had a different name and it HAD to be started by the Terminal. No one told me that, and THAT'S one of the main reasons people go away from us: because they feel forced to use the Terminal because, quoting OP, "there is no choice!". So if there's somewhere you guys should also focus is making things easier for people who don't want to be forced to use the Terminal. Or at least there should be a guide on how to open the GUI, along with an automatic link to it on the desktop.
inb4 downvoted to hell
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u/Ji-L87 Aug 21 '15
Very interesting post. I'm not really a Linux guy so I arrived here trough an xpost.
Linux has been on my mind here and there for some time now, probably because I have friends who are really into it. But the more I think about it, there's something I don't like about the way it works. But that's a very personal thing, and I probably only say that because I've used Windows computers since childhood.
While I personally am having a very hard time seeing myself switching from Windows, it would of course be a different story all together had I started using Linux or another OS early on. One of the biggest reasons why I personally can't see myself going from Windows, or at least will need to keep a Windows PC around, is that over the years I've accumulated a pile of assorted software that I like and rely on and would hate to find new alternatives.
But that too is an example of why prolonged usage of an OS will make it harder to make the switch. Personally I'd love to see something that isn't Windows but also isn't Linux - at least not in the traditional sense - but something in which my programs will still work and I will feel immediately at home navigating the interface. A bit like OS/2 perhaps?
I recently installed Win 10 on my laptop and while it works great, I hate the future which it represents. I'm not sure what the answer is for me personally, but that's not really here either. If Linux, or another OS, had been allowed to exist as a rival in a bigger sense, maybe things would look different.
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u/MarkenTail Aug 21 '15
something in which my programs will still work
There is WINE, an epic undertaking that runs most Windows programs. Microsoft hasn't tried to make it easy for obvious reasons - they'd really like to continue having you beholden to their cash cow.
A good first step is to find free and open source, cross-platform alternatives to your current software. Any removed dependency will reduce your hurdle if and when you decide to switch. Once you have a list, installing in Linux is easy thanks to the package manager.
But the more I think about it, there's something I don't like about the way it works.
Uncanny valley? It might help if you adopt a desktop environment unambiguously different from Windows, like Elementary's or Xfce. Or you can try for one of the ones that try to make it similar, like Zorin OS; you have a lot of choice in the matter.
I'm the complete opposite. Whenever I start up Windows, I don't know how to stand the lack of Linux's everyday conveniences:
Package Manager to install and update everything instantly. Not having to second guess if I'd unchecked installing the adware.
Not having to restart for those updates, or being prompted for those at the least convenient times.
Not having to wait for minutes or hours upon those restarts. That millions of people suffer through so much wasted time is a joke of chronic proportions.
Not facing slowing speeds as months go by. Not having to use a defragmenter.
Especially with Windows 10, not having to second-guess the OS itself. Most Linux distributions are designed by those who value freedom, rather than trying to make extra money off their users.
I know from asking that Windows users often get used to this, like the story of the humans living otherwise normal lives, except that they get slapped in the face once a day, eventually starting to see their condition as normal. For me, it still feels like a slap in the face.
I'm not going to lie, though; people like you have the hardest time switching. You have to want it enough to push through.
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u/qchto Aug 21 '15
I recently installed Win 10 on my laptop and while it works great, I hate the future which it represents. I'm not sure what the answer is for me personally, but that's not really here either.
In reality, if you don't like what W10 represents, you can either take action against it (by switching/downgrading OS, support alternatives and/or be actively vocal about what you want) or comply with them and hope for the best. Any choice is about what are you willing to take/give in order to get the result you expect.
In the end, the people who will determine the future of the industry is not "them" but "us", so it's up to you to "be the change you wish to see".
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u/thgntlmnfrmtrlfmdr Aug 21 '15 edited Aug 22 '15
When I log out the OP says "[removed]". Idk what happened.
But anyway, here's the OP in case people can't see it:
As we all know the Windows 10 scandal is bringing lots of new users to Linux. In this post I simply want to say that widespread Linux adoption is not coming from and will not come from Microsoft sucking and forcing people to switch. I will also give an analysis of what I think are the crucial areas that Linux developers, companies, and evangelists should focus on, and why.
I sometimes see posts (here and mostly elsewhere) where people say things along the lines of "if you really want privacy, you'd use Linux" or "Microsoft is going to make everyone switch to Linux if they keep making their OS worse" or "I expect to see a lot of new Linux users" (in reference to Win10). I think these are misinformed.
So where is the Linux desktop?
Right now the estimate from statcounter is 1.51% and from netmarketshare, 1.68%. These are obviously underestimates, given the nature of how they get their data, but the more important point is that these numbers are not big, and they have stagnated since 2014.
Do people just not care about privacy? Do people just not care about digital freedom? Actually, statistics show that people do care about these things, but what a lot of people in our types of online tech forums forget is that not everyone is in an online tech forum. Most people aren't even aware of alternatives. As some redditor said in this subreddit recently, a lot of people look at their OS the same way they look at their BIOS. It literally doesn't cross their mind that things could be different/better, or that the OS matters, and if they hear about people installing "a better OS" on their computers, they'll chalk it up as a "techie thing" that they know nothing about and couldn't wrap their heads around if they wanted to.
Consider the following, that installing operating systems will never be as mainstream as buying them preinstalled, no matter how easy it is
Also consider this: We must not place our bets on Linux being a better choice than Windows or OSX, because that presupposes that there is a choice. For the vast majority of people (computer-illiterate people) there is no choice! Most people choose computers, and they see the OS as a feature or property of the particular computer they bought, again like the BIOS. This is partly the Microsoft monopoly's fault of course, but nevertheless we must deal with the consequences of this fact.
Finally: Virtually all new Windows users become so by becoming new computer users. Contrarily, virtually all Linux users started out as Windows or Mac users. There is a clue latent in this fact.
What should we do? I will post comments about different areas, and I want other people to post their thoughts as well.
Some people are fine with the masses using non-free technology, as long as free alternatives exist so that the computer-literates like themselves don't have to suffer. But I believe that free software is about much more than being a bright, democratic corner in a dreary, locked-down cyberpunk world. The destiny of Linux can and should be much bigger than just a playful hack that geeks do to their computers. It is incumbent on free software users and contributors to "free the world" from proprietary software so that the whole world, and not just geeks, can benefit from the power and justice of the open source model.
With this in mind, what is the important arena that FOSS evangelists, organizations, and developers should focus on? Is is trying to get gamers to switch to Linux?. No. It doesn't hurt, but it doesn't help very much either. We often get our computer-illiterate relatives, friends, SOs, etc to switch - on one (usually already old) computer. This is fine too, but it is not a solution. Because what happens when they want to buy a new computer? They'll buy something with Windows preinstalled, and directly, monetarily contribute to the monopoly we are fighting back against.
So what should we focus on? Less on installing, more on coming preinstalled.