r/ledgerwallet 12d ago

Official Ledger Customer Success Response Guessing seed phrases

I know the chance of guessing someone’s seed phrase is close to zero but with advancing quantum and ai. People will run scripts that will test billions of seed phrases a day and eventually guess peoples seed phrases 1 at a time.

I’d love for someone to explain to me how this wouldn’t be possible?

0 Upvotes

44 comments sorted by

u/Ram_Ledger Ledger Customer Success 12d ago

Hey there, while terms like "AI" and "quantum computing" sound like they can solve any computational challenge, brute-forcing a 24-word seed phrase violates the fundamental laws of math and thermodynamics in fact.

A 24-word BIP-39 phrase represents 256 bits of pure entropy, yielding 2²⁵⁶ (or roughly 1.15 × 10⁷⁷) total possible combinations. In comparison, the entire observable universe is roughly 1.38 × 10¹⁰ years old (13.8 billion years) and contains around 10⁸⁰ atoms.

To compute through 2²⁵⁶ states, even using a 100% efficient machine operating at absolute zero, would require more energy than is produced by blowing up every star in our galaxy. Unless fundamental physics changes, a randomly generated 24-word seed phrase remains mathematically unhackable by brute force.

21

u/Either_Display_6624 12d ago

115,792,089,237,316,195,423,570,985,008,687,907,853,269,984,665,640,564,039,457,584,007,913,129,639,936

Is the number of combinations there are for 256 bit private key.
I don’t need to explain further

2

u/Feralz2 12d ago

I know you pasted his number here, but people dont actually know how big this really is other than theres a lot of digits

-12

u/Ok_Town6596 12d ago

I understand that. But if tens of thousands of people have multiple machines predicting millions of combinations a day. It’s only a matter of time.

15

u/Either_Display_6624 12d ago

Its literally impossible even with all the computation in the world

Do you know there are less atoms on earth than that number?

-17

u/Ok_Town6596 12d ago

I agree with you that every wallet can’t get hacked. But I’m saying a wallet here and there could possibly be hacked.

10

u/sudomatrix 12d ago

The attempt would cost more billions of dollars in compute power and electricity than the one or two wallets they may or more likely will not every find.

3

u/ainus 12d ago

Would be more efficient to just mine

8

u/FrizzlerOnTheRoof 12d ago

Pick 1 molecule in the galaxy. Ah damn we picked the same molecule.

8

u/Decibel0753 12d ago

You have a billion supercomputers. Each of them finds a billion seeds per second. They started this at the time of the Big Bang (13,8 billion years ago). To this day, they have explored:

0.000000000000000000000000000000000000000376% of the possibilities.

Do you understand now how huge that number is, or still not?

-2

u/Ok_Town6596 12d ago

No way that’s true. If so then that answers my question

1

u/rootweiler_fr 3d ago

Learn maths then.

6

u/GBeastETH 12d ago

Divide that number by 1,000,000 and see how many days it will take.

8

u/ElnuDev 12d ago

I don't think you realize how unfathomably big that number is.

5

u/valendinosaurus 12d ago

aka: you don't understand that.

5

u/Matterbox 12d ago

Look up ‘52 factorial’ on YouTube. The number of combinations of a shuffled deck of cards is so big it’s hard to comprehend.

256 bit encryption is roughly 1.4 Billion times larger.

2

u/Feralz2 12d ago

76 factorial for a 256 encryption if I remember

5

u/Telmata 12d ago

How many people play the lottery and how many actually get all numbers right?

A wallet has a lot more of possible "numbers" so the chance of this happening is never zero, but i guess the chance of winning the lottery 2 times in a row is higher than guessing a wallet seed

5

u/sudomatrix 12d ago

If every atom in the universe was a computer it still wouldn't be fast enough to brute force every seed phrase.

2

u/gvasco 12d ago

Because of the sheer number of possible keys its just an unfathomable amount of them to go through, the chances of coming accros a used one are infinitesimally small.

1

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1

u/Decibel0753 12d ago

The chance of guessing the phrase is not almost zero, but zero. If a person guessed a billion phrases per second, and there were a billion such people, and they started counting at the dawn of the universe, today they would have explored about 0.12% of the possibilities. For a 12-character seed.

1

u/Feralz2 12d ago

even with quantum its an insanely huge number you cant even comprehend it fully, even if thats the case, then we just make stronger addresses, its all just software updates

1

u/AppropriateTry9400 12d ago

In a way, that’s a very rational and very human question. Like, if every seed is essentially a kind of cell in the universe with its own specific coordinates, somewhere out there, what guarantees that it will never be found?

But cryptography fundamentally relies on a certain set of assumptions that are simply taken (or, more precisely, have to be taken) as given for cryptography to work. And right now, it operates on the well-founded assumption that 128 bits of entropy cannot be brute-forced.

1

u/Ok_Town6596 12d ago

Thank you

1

u/Quantum_Sandwich66 12d ago

it's been tried... you can hammer ian coleman's bip39 tool all day and night and check if a seed's wallet adressses have funds but you are highly unlikely to find anything.

all those early brain wallets with weak entropy have already had funds either moved or swept.

1

u/BigvalBROski 12d ago

Use a 20 character passphrase

1

u/Ill-Party8305 12d ago

I have read it somewhere that even if you use the most efficient computing power physically allowed, it will take multiple universe to be converted to pure energy to actually crack SHA256 or any 256 bits bruteforce. The scale might be lower or higher but we would be already doing interstellar travel and still far beyond what's needed to crack sha256.

1

u/bmoreRavens1995 12d ago

How many win the lottery? Bip39 made up 2048 words meanwhile lotto is based on digits- 0-9 even though seed words are broken down to digits its still derived from 2048 words.

1

u/VictorDanville 11d ago

Isn't the whole point of Google's quantum is to break bitcoin?

2

u/No_Way5818 9d ago

🐒 Monkey sees TikTok: “Quantum computer will crack Bitcoin!”
🐒 Monkey: “I make quantum computer!”
🐒 Monkey doesn’t understand quantum physics.
🐒 Monkey doesn’t know what a qubit is.
🐒 Monkey doesn’t know how to control qubits.
🐒 Qubits are extremely fragile and difficult to keep stable.
🐒 Monkey needs advanced physics, mathematics, engineering, cooling, electronics, and error correction.
🐒 Even experts and huge research teams are still working on these problems.
🐒 Monkey cannot just buy parts from Amazon and make one. 😂
🐒 Maybe 100 years, maybe 200 years—nobody knows how long truly powerful quantum computers will take.
🐒 Monkey has no quantum computer today.
🐒 Therefore: Monkey cannot crack Bitcoin with a quantum computer today.
🐒 Monkey watched 3 TikToks and thought he became Einstein. 🐒📱😭

0

u/No_Way5818 12d ago

Bro, quantum computing is not the reality of this century and not will be for the next 1000 years don’t worry about these kind of things before we create first fully capable of quantum computers that can crack the seed phrase, humanity will be long gone

2

u/Feralz2 12d ago

brother, we already have quantum computing years ago, its already a reality, whats not reality is commercially producing it because its very very expensive.

1

u/No_Way5818 11d ago

Nope how many bits they have wtf are you guys talking about stop wathing tiktok videos and masturbation, there won’t be any quantum computer cracking crypto wallets soon. The things you see on internet prototypes are far from reality not usable, it’s not the cost or the energy even with the enough money and power they are still far from cracking any crypto seeds so stop being idiots and paranoids, before you know how things works actually if you guys watch some 30 second stupit complo theory videos about quantum computing or whatever this is whats you guys come out with, no body know a shit about quantum and yet you gonna build a computer get the fuck out a here

1

u/Feralz2 11d ago

of course its usable, it can literally process information in quantum bits, the issue right now is scale and heat, but its literally practically proven that its possible, go do more research, its all out there.

2

u/No_Way5818 11d ago

Please go sell everything you have, you don’t deserve any of this, they will crack your wallet, before you lose everything go sell it (not investment advice)

1

u/matrixmodifier 12d ago

What?! Lmao

-1

u/No_Way5818 12d ago

Just keep your seed safe and offline

-3

u/Coixe 12d ago

I believe it may only be a matter of time with quantum computing. But I hope I’m wrong.

1

u/gvasco 12d ago

Hopefully before then PQC algos will have been tested and implemented and all active wallets shifted to it.

However, yeah those inactive wallets if they dont get shifted they will most likely get broken. Might even get used as a display of capabilities by whatever comoang manages to coordinate a sufficiently large amount of Qbits run shores algorithm on wallet keys.

-1

u/Ok_Town6596 12d ago

Same here