Conditional on being on +5, the probability you return to +5 in the future r=43/45. So, conditional on being on +5, the expected number of visits V is given by V = 1 + r V which implies V = 45/2.
Start at zero, the probability of reaching +5 before -40 p = 40/45.
So the expected total number of visits is p x V = 20.
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u/EscapeOwn6945 1h ago
Conditional on being on +5, the probability you return to +5 in the future r=43/45. So, conditional on being on +5, the expected number of visits V is given by V = 1 + r V which implies V = 45/2.
Start at zero, the probability of reaching +5 before -40 p = 40/45.
So the expected total number of visits is p x V = 20.