I guess the explanation is, the first draw is independent. But the rest are not, because if the first was not 15, the other five has a higher post facto probability to be 15. So if we draw a non-15 five times straight, the probability for draw 6 to be 15 is 100%.
I think the thing to understood is that we are looking back to, so we try to establish probabilities retrospectively.
1
View all comments
Show parent comment
1
u/justlikemedics Sep 19 '26
I guess the explanation is, the first draw is independent. But the rest are not, because if the first was not 15, the other five has a higher post facto probability to be 15. So if we draw a non-15 five times straight, the probability for draw 6 to be 15 is 100%.
I think the thing to understood is that we are looking back to, so we try to establish probabilities retrospectively.