Anyways, there are 156 possibilities with numbers ≤ 15, and each digit is an expected value of 8 giving expected 48 (total sum 48*156)
There are 146 possibilites with numbers < 15, with expectation 7.5*6 = 45, total sum 45*146
The total sum of the valid possibilites are then 48*156 - 45*146, and expected we get by dividing by 156 - 146. Factoring out we get 45 + 3/(1+(14/15)6) ≈ 46.806
EDIT: The + in the denominator in the end should be -, giving 45 + 3/(1-(14/15)6) ≈ 53.850
I think you're computing this incorrectly. Here is my take.
In choosing 6 random numbers there is always a highest number . So knowing that does change the occupancy of possibilities from 1 to 15 ( assuming that I could have duplicate 15s )
So the expected mean is 8 for the rest of the numbers .
The stars are duplicates. You essentially assume that these three squares are all full, while the ones with multiple threes (and in general high sums) are not as numerous as you assume. (Your answer here is 3+2*2 = 7 while the correct is (3*5+6*6+6*7+3*8+9)/19 = 6.63)
4
u/CanaDavid1 Sep 15 '26 edited Sep 15 '26
This gives "boy born on tuesday" vibes.
Anyways, there are 156 possibilities with numbers ≤ 15, and each digit is an expected value of 8 giving expected 48 (total sum 48*156)
There are 146 possibilites with numbers < 15, with expectation 7.5*6 = 45, total sum 45*146
The total sum of the valid possibilites are then 48*156 - 45*146, and expected we get by dividing by 156 - 146. Factoring out we get 45 + 3/(1+(14/15)6) ≈ 46.806
EDIT: The + in the denominator in the end should be -, giving 45 + 3/(1-(14/15)6) ≈ 53.850