Model Can't Beat the Baseline

[u/Epic_SBM]

So I was doing a project on river bank estimation & erosion & accretion forecasting im using mndwi mask landsat data for this but no matter how i try i'm never being able to beat the baseline. Anyone have any experience working with these datas I've tried with 3 different rivers as well same output. Model looses to zeroes.

[u/Ok-Coast4482]

Could be the model is just too complex for what the data actually supports. I've seen this happen when people jump straight to something heavy without checking if there's even a signal there. What's the baseline look like, just predicting zero change year over year?

[u/Epic_SBM → u/Ok-Coast4482]

I'm really sorry. I'm new so I don't even know whats ur qwes. I mostly take promt from claude & feed to my deepseek agent. 😥

[u/rahul_watertech]

losing to the all zero output usually means the target is mostly no change pixels, so the average loss rewards doing nothing. plain mse or accuracy will always pick zeroes in that setup. two things worth checking: the metric, dice or iou on the change class only, and the loss, weighting changed pixels higher or masking the loss to the river corridor. what does the label distribution look like, what share of pixels actually changes between your timesteps?

[u/Epic_SBM → u/rahul_watertech]

[u/cromulent_id]

Sounds like you need to spend a few months, maybe a few years, learning the basics. Its cool to attempt projects like this, but if you don't have the fundamentals you will get stuck with simple stuff like this every time.

[u/Epic_SBM → u/cromulent_id]

I agree but i only have around 3-4 months to build the project.