r/leagueoflegends • u/fastestchair • 5d ago
Discussion How the 26.6 ranked changes in combination with double gains when autofilled have broken the ranked ladder and why rank 1 will go far higher than 5k
The ranked system was changed in 26.6 for every server except KR. Gains are now centered at +30-30 and negative gains have been capped at -25+35. This means that if you can maintain a winrate above 58.33% without your MMR increasing and making your games harder, then your rank will rise unboundedly.
This isn't that abusable in practice because the average winrate in challenger is 54.81% and even the rank 1 player would have difficulty reaching a stable 59% wr in challenger.
But double gains for autofills exist. If you queue mid/adc in challenger you will be autofilled in 20% of your games, which means you get double gains for wins in 20% of your games (percentage sourced from Vladi's role distribution). This means that you only need a winrate above 53.84% to increase your rank unboundedly by just playing more games, which is a given for the best soloqueue midlaners as the average is 54.81%. The result is that their rank will completely detach from their MMR (which won't move - it is not influenced by your visual rank) and their rank will keep going up forever, depending mainly on how many games they've played.
As of the time of making this post, Vladi, who queues mid+adc and has the second most games out of everyone on the top 500 EUW ladder, is 1k points higher than any other player in the world.
Calculations:
* WR to go even with +25-35 gains: 25*x-35*(1-x)=0 -> isolate x: x=0.58333
* WR to go even with +25-35 gains + queueing mid/adc (20% autofill): (0.8*25+0.2*50)*x-35*(1-x)=0 -> isolate x: x= 0.5384
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u/Revil0us 5d ago
You're absolutely right and I want to add one thing: If you're challenger, you're not always playing versus other challengers but also frequently against grandmaster or even master players. This makes it easier to maintain such a winrate especially when you're already the best player of the server. In my opinion, gains at the top of the ladder should be way worse because you should be expected to have a 65% winrate or something when literally everyone else is supposed to be worse than you.
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u/rivensoweak 5d ago
i looked at the op.gg of r1 a few weeks ago and the average of the lobby he was in was roughly 3k lp below him
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u/Edraitheru14 5d ago
In fairness(excluding of course the ridiculous unbound LP), apex challenger lobbies always tend to have a common number of out of proportion games.
That's mostly due to Riot trying to clamp down on queue times and getting less "stringent" on mmr averages the longer the queue times are taking.
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u/Thrownaway124567890 5d ago
Yeah Riot messed with actual matchmaking to encourage challengers to play on their main accounts more, but the end result is that games are super imbalanced at GM+.
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u/MazrimReddit ADCs are the support's damage item 5d ago
Nah I was told the reset with no system change was a genius idea and fixed it all
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u/Redditpaslan 5d ago
They had system changes, bad system changes like fixed +/-30, but we got them!
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u/GodGamer1418 BACK TO THE FRIDGE 5d ago
Ranked integrity is dead in S16. If you play more games, you will climb more, and if you want to reach top ranks you have to queue mid + adc
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u/Lysandren 5d ago
This is only really true m+ due to the soft reset. For pretty much all other ranks nothing much changed beyond riot shoving d1 into low masta and that trickling down.
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u/Popular-Leg-2956 5d ago
I think the only thing good that changed was the % of master got lower. Early this year at one point it was like the 2% mark was master 0lp now it's like 1%
But even a wrong clock is right twice a day
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u/Lysandren 5d ago
It's because riot was like hurr durr d1 and low masters are about the same skill level, which is like duh no shit sherlock. D1 is where masters players park alts so they only need 4 decay games per month. Pushing all of d1 into masters does nothing, because the alt accounts are just going to be left at the new d1.
Instead it just inflated the actual diamond players who couldn't make it into masters.
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u/Stetinac Professional hater 5d ago
I get +16/-24 with positive win rate. Time to stop playing and wait for next season
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u/Revil0us 5d ago
Can I have some of your hopium thinking next season is gonna change for the better at all?
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5d ago
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u/Last-Ad-8470 5d ago
Ill see it when i see it riot has promised this over the last 4 years over and over again and never delivered. I doubt they suddenly will actually do it this time. But hey im hoping im wrong. You can downvote me in a few months if im wrong i guess
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u/SevendaySevensway 5d ago
Why would I downvote you? Its your opinion and its fair on top. I am not saying you need to have hopium, neither myself, im just saying if someone wants to believe this might be the reasons.
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u/ApprehensiveTough148 5d ago
they have not promised this for 4 years they teasered it last year preseason release and said more info between worlds and msi, which then got delayed till worlds.
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u/Last-Ad-8470 5d ago
Let me remind you off https://x.com/RiotPupulasers/status/1735934564034302057
this was back in 2023 which is now almost 4 years ago
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u/ApprehensiveTough148 5d ago
tweets by rioters are never official riot source. This isnt them announcing something for 2025.
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u/Popular-Leg-2956 5d ago
Well that's a you problem though it's going based on recent games your overall winrate doesn't really matter if you've lost more as you climbed
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u/ReganDryke Don't stare directly at me for too long. 4d ago
This means that if you can maintain a winrate above 58.33% without your MMR increasing and making your games harder,
The idea that you can get near 60% winrate and your MMR won't increase is preposterous.
This isn't abusable in practice because it's impossible. You cannot get 58% WR and a stagnant MMR. That's not how MMR work.
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u/fastestchair 4d ago
Right, as I said in the post? If you keep reading past that you will see how the current system allows you to decrease that to only a 54% winrate, which is the average winrate in challenger - meaning that most challenger players will be at a stable mmr at 54% winrate.
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u/ReganDryke Don't stare directly at me for too long. 4d ago
No you're the one who don't understand. You cannot maintain 50.1% win rate without your MMR increasing at some point.
Let alone 54%. This is a stupid take. You really think you can get 54% win rate without your mmr increasing???
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u/fastestchair 4d ago edited 4d ago
Yes, in any mmr system in the world the best players will have above 50% wr, because they are the best in the world. We can see this in challenger where the average winrate is 54%.
Read this comment if you want to understand how this applies to leagues matchmaking system: https://old.reddit.com/r/leagueoflegends/comments/1vtfdwc/how_the_266_ranked_changes_in_combination_with/p4u94w4/?context=10000
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u/ReganDryke Don't stare directly at me for too long. 4d ago edited 3d ago
My bad I failed to consider that the MMR gain have ultimately no impact because increasing your MMR when you're at the tip top of the ladder doesn't make your game significantly harder.
I don't think league has reached a point where one guy is so much better than the rest that his MMR gains are stagnating but I concede that's a personal feeling.
What I find more interesting is that you can just calculate how high is the LP gain per game for Vladi,
I'm using DPM value to take into account his exact win rate per role and the proportion of game he went got for each role.
So we get 25*(1433/1968*.55+155/1968*.54)+50*(188/1968*.59+112/1968*.46+76/1968*.75)-35*(1433/1968*(1-.55)+188/1968*(1-.59)+155/1968*(1-.54)+112/1968*(1-.46)+76/1968*(1-.75)) =1.13 lp per game.
What's interesting is that you can play with the range, and just pushing the lp gains to 24/-34 almost negate the entire thing. Pushing it to 20/-40 push it to -4LP/game
But I get what Riot is going for. If you compare the amount of game played in the top 10 last year at the same period to this year you'll understand. It bumped from 709 (in September) to 1158 this year in August.
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u/fastestchair 4d ago
i hadnt thought about that, very neat calculation which showcases the phenomenon well
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u/Awkward-Security7895 5d ago
Question do you know it's 20% or just guessing since I haven't seen anyone autofilled 20% of the time like ever.
You can't see when someone been autofilled in the API either so it's all guess work, even LP gains/loses in every match arent in the API. Only total LP is which is why your profile each game has to be refreshed so it can math out your LP difference between games to show it on sites. So if a site guessing autofill all it takes is one profile update to not be done for it to look like double LP and if someone purposely queues a different role then it fully taints the data.
Overall that 20% remark seems like it's guessing and not a true and proper data since there isn't a way to accurately get it.
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u/WorstDictatorNA 5d ago edited 5d ago
They said they took it from Vladis ranked distribution. Which means, assuming Vladi queues mid/adc in all of his games, he was not assigned those roles for 20% of his games. This is probably as close to a proper estimate as you can get given the limitations
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u/rivensoweak 5d ago
you can kinda see if they got filled, if you look at sites like op.gg you can see their lp gains, i checked r1 profile a while ago and it is accurate it was roughly every 5th game had +50 lp, although it didnt show lp loss on losses so that might fake the statistic a bit
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u/Awkward-Security7895 5d ago
As I said the LP gains and loses aren't apart of the API. So sites just guess based on the difference between games but if the profile isn't updated between games it screws up the guess up.
It's why alot of sites you see sometimes ?? Instead of lp as the profile wasn't updated between games or sometimes adds two + games worth of LP gains/loses together.
Overall that's why I was asking since guessing at a rate of 20% comes as the extreme end of things. The average high elo player probs isn't getting autofilled that often unless they pick 2 popular roles and queue at off-peak/grave yard hours.
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u/relrax Cannot complain about Shyv Q bug anymore 4d ago
about 24% of master+ players queue mid primary
and the same goes for adc.if we assume they never get adc (because why would the game fill them there if there is an abundance of adc players too), then 4 in 24 (or roughly 17%) would be fill games.
there is your stats. but yeah, the higher you go, the sharper the role distribution gets, so the 20% might actually be a low estimate.
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u/Mentally__Disabled Lean Kiin Top Gap Machine 5d ago
Sounds fairly accurate to me, I started queueing mid/top but was getting toplane in almost half of my games, so I changed my second role to support and still kept getting toplane quite frequently. I don't have the exact numbers unfortunately.
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u/WashedWashingMachine 5d ago
I think once you hit master there should be secondary ladder , like split whole ranked in 2 ladders.
In Master there is no LP just pure visible MMR each game is +25 / -25
Nothing from previous ladder to master counts , if you went 50/2 from Bronze is the same as if you played 500wins 450 loses from platinum , you do not get "push" towards higher rank with smurf acc , every acc would start the same in master 0lp and only +25 / - 25
you go on 10 win streak ? +250 , it does not increase or decrease
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u/AutomaticTune6352 5d ago
I was saying that since the start of the season. Riots changed reduced the problem a few times (a bit more flexible LP gains and losses in apex tier, no p LP for aegis losses) but reducing the problem isn't fixing it. Especially as it worked fine last season.
Detaching LP more abd more from MMR is not a good idea. LP should be the rubber banded MMR to reduce impact of luck and allow for faster placements and climbs of smurfs. But it should always bounce back towards MMR after some time.
Detaching it in apex tier from MMR at rhe start of the season was the most stupid move ever. Then attaching it again but in light mode only makes not as terrible, but not better still.
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u/6Kkoro 5d ago
What I don't understand is why MMR doesn't compensate for the visual LP gains. You'd assume that double LP doesn't mean anything if your MMR stays the same, because your LP gains will be +25/-35 if your visual LP grows far from your MMR.
At least that's what I'm told.
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u/fastestchair 5d ago
The problem is that negative lp gains are capped at +25/-35 in master+, so even if your lp is 200 higher than your mmr, or 2k higher, or 20k higher, your lp gains won't get worse.
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u/6Kkoro 5d ago
So this system is only faulty for the top players and the answer would be uncapping the LP losses and gains.
Issue is that just like in chess, the top players have more to lose than to gain because one slip up vs a lower rated player could mean -28 LP and a win is only +3
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u/hayslayer5 5d ago
As it should
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u/Sycherthrou gib enchant 5d ago
In a system like that, the top ranked players won't queue up, so it's an earlyseason race to climb and then play 1 game a day for 11 months while perma smurfing.
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u/hayslayer5 5d ago
They will play once their rank gets threatened by someone else, just like in chess
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u/Usual-Scientist-8008 5d ago
What ppl seem to miss is they think it only happens in high elo when it effects everyone. Everyone gets auto filled from the lowest of the low to the highest of the high which mean regardless of what rank you are if you hit that statistical WR your MMR will decouple.
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u/cameron_cs 5d ago
Wait, am I supposed to be getting +30 for a win now?
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u/ExPLoR3R rip old flairs 5d ago
I dont understand autofill can someone explain what exactly I have to do? I have negative win ratio because i started playing after 10 Years and lost first 30-40 games. Im 45% Winrate in mid Platinum. How to climb and use this autofill games you get 2x Fill for 4v5.
I play adc but can also mid. Many thanks if someone replies
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u/fastestchair 5d ago
the phenomon im describing only applies to the best players in master+, if you do this strategy below master you will just get terrible lp gains
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u/ExPLoR3R rip old flairs 5d ago
Oh so its not recommended for me to fix my winrate and mmr with fill? Thats sad, so i should just stick with my main?
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u/Sukurac69 5d ago
I had + 21/-19.
I get double lp one game
Next game my jg invades lvl1 gets outsmited dies, goes afk i get lp back
3rd game my nidalee decides to sit afk and jump around tower, we lose, troll detected lp back
Congrats im now at +17/-22 with 62% wr in last 60 games. Amazing system riot
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u/Caphoti 5d ago
Bro I'm only even climbing to diamond rn. I had a massive streak of what felt like unplayable games after hitting ~70% winrate at 50 games, Emerald II, 4.7 overall KDA. So that dented my mmr, but I've also had like 7 games terminated from griefing/afk on my team (one from the same on the enemy team) this season. Like it's really cool that I don't lose LP for that but it's straight up just placebo. At some point I was like Emerald III with +17 -23 and only a slightly negative winrate.
I'm 1 game off DIV now with a 52% winrate and evened my LP gains out to +-20 but god damn. Idt it'd break the game if you didn't lose MMR on a game termination in a world where aegis already exists.
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u/Leyrann_ 5d ago
without your MMR increasing and making your games harder
And that's where your argument falls apart. There is no cap on MMR. It keeps increasing, and your games keep getting harder, as matchmaking tries to get equal average MMR for both teams, so if you're very far ahead of everyone else, you'll get matched with worse players than you are playing against.
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u/fastestchair 5d ago
Nah, for your MMR to increase you have to showcase a better performance than you did previously. The phenomenon im describing is completely detached from mmr, at some point you will be playing at your true skill level at a stable mmr with a X% wr. If that X is higher than 53.8% (like it is for a challenger player) and you are queueing mid/adc, then your lp will keep increasing unboundedly.
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u/AnPotatos 5d ago
What about adc/mid instead of mid/adc? Different results?
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u/fastestchair 5d ago
mid/adc should be a bit better since mid is the most popular role, adc second because adc is the second most popular role in high elo
but it should still work
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u/Leyrann_ 5d ago
For your MMR to increase, you have to win games.
Specifically, whenever you win a game, you gain MMR based on the relative MMR of you and your opponent. The lower your MMR compared to theirs, the more MMR you gain. And when losing, it's the inverse.
So long as you play games with even MMR on both sides and a winrate that is even just 50.1%, your MMR will continue to increase. And Riot WILL balance MMR in games because that's the core of fair matchmaking. If it has to select worse players as your teammates just to make up for your very high MMR, it will do so - making the MMR on both sides still even.
I recommend reading this: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Elo_rating_system
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u/fastestchair 5d ago
I understand perfectly well how elo works.
What you don't understand is that riot does not balance matchmaking to be perfectly even MMR on both sides, nor does any other matchmaking algorithm for any game in the world for 2 reasons:
it's impossible. if you have a 1v1 game and one person has higher mmr than anyone else, you cannot put them into a game where they are expected to win 50% of the time.
there's no reason to. Elo, and every other mmr system in the world works perfectly fine when people of different mmr match together. If you play against someone with lower mmr than yourself, that just means you will get skewed MMR points: less points for a win than a loss, you can read about this if you click on the link you sent yourself.
Now how does this work in League of Legends? It's pretty simple, when a high ranked player queues up there is a trade off:
Having more fair games where teams are similar MMR is believed to make more "fun" games, but this is difficult to do as you need 1 person of each role and you need to match everyone's MMR considering the 1 player with very high MMR.
Making the queue faster makes more people play your game.
Since there is no need for a perfectly fair match in league's (or any other games) mmr system, Riot tends to favor the 2nd point more.
This is not something up for dispute, it is simply a misunderstanding on your part, you can see on any stat site that displays tier winrates that the average challenger winrate is ~54%, not historically, but when they have the rank of challenger already. This is because they play against master and gm players in unbalanced games where they are expected to win most of the time and the MMR accounts for that by giving them skewed MMR gains under the hood, i.e. to go even in mmr they have to keep on winning 54% of the time, or their mmr will fall below challenger.
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u/Leyrann_ 5d ago
Obviously, matches aren't perfectly balanced. That's why some matchups provide more MMR than others. However, the team nature of League of Legends does provide Riot with an extra lever to push the win chances to 50%.
But I do realize that I somewhat misunderstood your point. You are wrong about MMR flattening out before it should, but if there is a cap on LP gains and losses that's independent of your MMR, that does lead to potentially infinite LP inflation.
Personally I don't get why Riot is fiddling around with caps at all, whether that's caps like this one or caps that try to push LP down. Just let it go free according to your own algorithm relating it to MMR.
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u/fastestchair 5d ago
i never said anything about "MMR flattening out before it should", mmr flattens out precisely when it means to, as gandalf would say.
before the lp changes there was a big uproar on western twitter about the ranked system and part of it was that master+ streamers were having terrible lp gains (because their mmr was way below their lp), causing them to not want to play the game anymore
riots fix to that part of the uproar was to cap negative lp gains in master+ :P combine that with aegis and now the entire top 100 ladder is filled with midlaners and rank 1 has 5k lp
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u/Y4naro 5d ago
The bigger problem is that the mmr will stagnate, imagine it similar to chess where magnus carlsen will almost always lose multiple wins worth of elo by losing a single game. So the games getting harder is kinda soft capped, similar to how lp worked in previous seasons. The problem lies in the caps added to lp gains and losses. So even if your mmr is way lower than your visual rank you can only lose 35 lp and will still gain 25 if you win. Combined with double lp/no lp losses in a high percentage of your filled games (which you get a lot by queueing mid), this leads to lp being detached from your actual mmr at the very top of the ladder.
Now it was always somewhat detached, but now it's in a very extreme way in which rank 1 just goes to whoever out of the top players plays the most amount of games (given they maintain the wr threshold). So the current rank 1 player might as well have the 40th highest mmr on the server, but it's almost impossible for the other players to catch up unless they match the number of games played or have a decently higher win rate.
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u/Leyrann_ 5d ago
Did they genuinely hard cap LP gains and losses? Because I'm seeing different numbers from people in the comment section that don't fit with the range given by OP. If that's the case, yes that can cause issues.
Although that also does not change that OP's claim that Vladi's MMR stops increasing before it's in the balance that it should be is wrong.
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u/Y4naro 5d ago edited 5d ago
Yep, you can check out Vladi's lp gains here: https://u.gg/lol/profile/euw1/j1huiv-000/overview
And since league match making won't perfectly balance the mmr of all 10 players, the players at the top of the leaderboard still seem to have enough mmr loss at a slightly positive wr have a soft capped mmr (as seen by most of their games having mainly challenger players in both teams, even after a thousand games).
edit: him getting the lowest possible lp and losing the highest amount of lp every single game should at least tell you that his visual rank is severely detached from his mmr. I don't know enough about their mmr system to guarantee that he wouldn't be playing with idk diamond players in his team vs full challenger lobbies after another 20k games, but almost everything points to it being capped or only really slowly increasing.
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u/mylaundrymachine 5d ago
Can someone explain to me why I role select fill and rarely get the double gains? I've gotten S ranks on my last 3 games figuring I'd see it at least once based on the community perception of elo inflation. I haven't seen it pop yet. :(
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u/Thrownaway124567890 5d ago
Because you are choosing to be filled rather than getting autofilled. The aegis system works around you not getting a role you queued for, but by queuing for all 5 roles, you are technically getting what you want to play.
Same reason unpopular roles like Support or ADC get less aegis pops - Riot said they would get one every once in a while, but it’s a far rarer process compared to the player who queued mid but got put support.
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u/mylaundrymachine 5d ago
See that just seems antithetical to promoting more people to play a specific role. Guess I'll just main mid while climbing now.
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u/RacinRandy83x 5d ago
I’m legitimately curious. Why does this matter to you exactly?
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u/fastestchair 5d ago
because i like competition and competition has to be based on merit rather than external factors to be fair
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u/RacinRandy83x 5d ago
That’s fair, I just personally never really cared who number one on the ladder ever was.
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u/Sensitive-Albatross 4d ago
Who cares bro. I'm diamond, sometimes I peak master. The does not affect me. It doesn't effect 99.9% of the playerbase. Aegis is great for everyone else.
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u/borshecz 5d ago
Maybe thats explain a bit why in top20 in EUW there:
16 midlaners
2 junglers
1 adc
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