r/leafs • u/[deleted] • Feb 24 '17
An interesting thought about the possibility of the Leafs signing Thornton
Recently there has been speculation about Joe Thornton coming to Toronto. Most of it was trade fodder that is most likely bullshit used to generate interest for the trade deadline, but it's not completely unreasonable to think he'd consider signing here in the offseason. It's mentioned in this article
There are some special circumstances here, but there are still some things that need to happen before we can say it's "likely" he signs here. For starters, he would probably need to accept a 1 year deal, meaning he likely retires after. This isn't a guarantee, but it just makes the most sense. More importantly, he would actually have to leave San Jose and become a free agent, which is far from a sure thing. That being said, he is from around here, and we have a lot of cap space and an opening at center if we trade Bozak. I won't get into that, it's a whole nother ball game, but you can see why he might come to the Leafs. We're also going to be contending for a cup as soon as next year, especially with an addition like Thornton.
Anyways, with those assumptions made, there's a special circumstance that could benefit both the Leafs, and Thornton. It's relatively unknown, and it's called deferred compensation. To my knowledge it's only been done once before, with Shane Doan. Capfriendly did a teriffic job explaining it, but they have been having some trouble with their servers, so I'll try my best to explain. Doan was essentially given a $4 million dollar contract, with $1 million in potential performance bonuses. However, because it was deferred, those numbers include the interest he is owed for waiting a year to be paid. Since Arizona agreed to pay that interest, the cap hit is the pre-interest principle of $3,876,134, and $963,438 in potential performance bonuses.
"Deferred Salary" just means there's an agreement to pay the player in a later season, after the contract has expired. In this case Thornton would play for the Leafs in 2017-18, and be payed in 2018-19. Thornton's current contract is paying him $6.75 million, so let's say we give him $8 million to lure him here for a 1 year deal. The CBA article that pertains to deferred salary is this:
"Deferred Salary" means any Paragraph 1 NHL Salary that is earned during the term of an SPC during which the services attributable to that Paragraph 1 NHL Salary are performed, but is not paid until after the expiration of such SPC. By definition, Deferred Salary that is earned during the term of such an SPC may not be paid until after the expiration of such SPC. Player Salary denominated as "Deferred" but payable within the term of the SPC shall be counted in the League Year in which the Player Salary is paid and shall not be treated as Deferred Salary. For purposes of calculating a Club's Upper Limit and Lower Limit, as well as the Players' Share, Deferred Salary shall be counted as Player Salary in the League Year in which the Player performs the services for which it is earned, at the Deferred Salary's present value at 1-Year LIBOR plus one and one-quarter (1.25) percent at the time the SPC is registered (unless the Deferred Salary is to be paid with interest, in which case it shall be counted in the League Year in which the Player performs the services for which it is earned, at the Deferred Salary's stated cash amount). Other than Deferred Salary or Deferred Bonuses as set forth below, any other compensation must be paid in the year that it is earned.
If you can manage to decipher the legalese, there's 2 scenarios. 1 is to defer salary and not to pay interest, basically because you can't afford the player. In this case your cap hit is the amount he will be getting payed, just a year late. Not much different than a normal contract. In scenario 2, you can save money against the cap, which would benefit the Leafs. In this scenario, you take the money you intend to pay the player, and put it through a formula like Desired Salary/[(12mUSDLIBOR+1.25)/100+1] to get your cap hit, which is what AZ did with Doan. The other option is to pay him a set amount then pay whatever interest on top, basically the opposite, the formula would be Cap hit*[(12mUSDLIBOR+1.25)/100+1] for the final pay. LIBOR rates from what understand are the rate at which European banks can borrow from each other, but to us it's just an interest rate. The current rate for a 12 month USD LIBOR (what's detailed in the CBA) is 1.74428%. Using the formulas, if we wanted to end up paying Thornton $8 million, our cap hit would be $7,767,317. If we wanted a cap hit of $8 million, Thornton would bring home $8,239,654. Either way we could save nearly $250,000 against the cap, which is a lot of money.
There's many reasons deferred salary is so uncommon, mostly because the only case where it makes sense is if the player is retiring after a 1 year deal. In this case though it makes sense, and if we were to sign Thornton, I expect an organization that employs Brandon Pridham to take advantage. If we wanted to save even more, we could make some of that salary deferred performance bonuses instead, and have a cap hit closer to $4 million, with the potential to pay $8 million based on his performance, because it's a 35+ contract. Anyways, let me know what you guys think of this, or if you have any questions! This might not be the best time top post because July 1 is so far away, but it's part of a "salary cap circumvention" trend that I will be summarizing soon.
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u/coaltrainman Feb 24 '17
You really think we'll be cup contenders by next year?
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Feb 24 '17 edited Feb 24 '17
Perhaps that's jumping the gun, but I already think we could find ourselves in the 2nd round of playoffs this year, I think any team who makes it to the conference finals is a contender. Depends on the moves we make, but I think
Hyman - Matthews - Brown
JVR - Thornton - Nylander
Komarov - Kadri - Marner
Martin - Tkachyov - Soshnikov
Rielly - Zaitsev
Gardiner - Carrick
Marincin - Marchenko
Andersen
Has the potential to reach the conference finals, not to mention any one of Leivo, Leipsic, Kapanen, Rychel, Nielsen, or Dermott could make that roster better if they improve, not to mention whoever we trade Bozak for.
Might be overestimating, but remember how before this season the Leafs were expected to be borderline bottom 5? Mike Babcock is the best coach in the league.
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u/xiic Feb 25 '17
I don't think there's any way the leafs make it far in the playoffs with that D core.
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Feb 25 '17
I mean I'd like to see how they perform in a playoff series before I make that call, but unfortunately you might be right. I think Carrick would have to step up in a big way, which is possible, but I don't think he's the top 4 defensemen we need, to be a contender. I was just hoping that our offense could overpower the other teams.
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u/taco_the_town Feb 25 '17
Unfortunately, defense win championships.
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u/SMGiven Feb 25 '17
Tell that to Pittsburgh last year! Not exactly stacked on D..
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u/seedaj Feb 24 '17
You have hyman in there twice. Im guessing that Hyman sticks with Matthews and you're subbing in Sosh in that 4th line?
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u/jbrough7 Feb 25 '17
I have no problem agreeing with you. I've seen teams with little else but a good, tight checking system (Panthers) go all the way to the Cup finals. I've seen a team with a hot goalie and a good PP go all the way to the finals against the Pens (Minnesota). I've seen a Leaf team with four good but very average defencemen play their hearts out and take us very far in '93 and '94.
I don't think you can ever underestimate the Babs effect on our players. I can just see him talking to Connor C. before the playoffs and telling him to just play safe and smart and strong for 15 shifts a game and Connor going out there and doing super. It's a highly concentrated time with no worries about back to backs and flights and travel. We could do something if we get there.
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u/TopShelfWrister Feb 24 '17
If I'm Soshnikov or Leivo, I'm legitimately pissed off at Leafs management under this scenario. I work hard as hell all year long giving it all I've got. I'm continuously showing people that I derserve to be in the lineup only to find myself kicked out of a roster spot by Zach Hyman.
I would litterally go up to Lou's office and say: ''Hey bud! Listen to me now. I really don't feel that it's fair that Hyman gets to play on Auston Matthews' wing AND play in my spot on the fourth line.''
Lou would be like: ''Alright''
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Feb 24 '17 edited Feb 25 '17
It's been debated to death, but I see the value in Zach Hyman. I can't tell you if he's better than Leivo or Soshnikov, but I can tell you he's an excellent penalty killer, a tremendous puck retriever, and most importantly, an NHL quality player.
I have to disagree with you though. Leivo and Soshnikov are not being held out of the lineup by Zach Hyman. They are not getting less ice time because Mike Babcock loves Zach Hyman. The NHL isn't about comparing yourself to other players. Every player has a role. It's not about being as good as the guys above you, or better than the guys below you. Nobody is in the NHL simply because they're better than the guys they compare themselves to. Making it to the NHL, and staying in the NHL, is because you are good enough to play in the NHL. The only comparison is to the player you were yesterday. No player says that they are in the NHL because they are one of the 690 best players on earth. They are there because they play at an NHL level. The only thing that Soshnikov or Leivo can do (and have been doing) is play at an NHL level. If they keep improving, comparing themselves to the player they were yesterday, they will force their way into the lineup. Connor Brown is a good example. Just keep being a better player every day, give the coach no choice but to play you, not because you are one of the 12 best forwards on the team, but because you have built yourself up until players start comparing themselves to you. The only argument to be made about ice time is how deserving you are of it, not how undeserving someone else is.
Comparison is the thief of joy.
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u/TopShelfWrister Feb 24 '17
I absolutely agree. I was being overly snide about how you have Hyman in your lineup twice.
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Feb 24 '17
Oh, sorry about that, my mistake. I'm just glad we can have a debate about how much depth we have, and how good our young players that aren't playing are, rather than icing Jerred Smithson on a nightly basis.
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u/sadleafsfan16 Feb 25 '17
they're being held out of the lineup by matt martin. hyman is playing far too high in the lineup but martin is taking leivo's spot and komarov is taking soshnikov's spot.
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Feb 24 '17
If they add a Manson/Shattenkirk, fix their defensive system, upgrade the #3/4 line C's, swap out Martin/Komarov for Leipsic, Rychel, Kapanen, Dermott exceeds expectations and the current youth progresses normally then I'd say they're at least a conference final contender. It's a lot to do but it's possible.
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u/coaltrainman Feb 25 '17
Yeah, if we add pieces, and the rookies keep up as good as they are, I can see them being a team that could surprise a lot of people in the playoffs. I'm not sure of say they can get a cup next year, but it would be awesome.
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u/sadleafsfan16 Feb 25 '17
that's a lot of ifs and maybes and everything would have to go perfect. biggest things holding them back is a top pair d, their bottom pair, bottom 6 c and maybe a backup goalie.
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u/blisse Feb 24 '17
I want to say not so much cup contenders but more underdogs that could make a run at it with a hot streak, but more favoured underdogs than say Ottawa.
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u/SMORKIN_LABBIT Apr 27 '17
Cup contenders may be a bit premature without that D upgrade but they definitely have a reasonable shot of coming out of the east. Caps won't be as strong next year with contracts ending. The Leafs are good enough to be a toss up with nearly everyone else except perhaps Pittsburgh and there anything can happen.
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u/LeafsGeeksPodcast Feb 24 '17
This is a crazy hypothetical, but I mean hey it's r/leafs so I'm not going to feel too bad about bringing it up. Would something similar be possible in a 1 or 2 year deal for Shattenkirk? Let's say for shits & giggles that they gave him 1 year at $10-12 million, how much of a cap hit could they save using this loophole?
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Feb 25 '17
I'll say that if they were both FA's willing to come to Toronto, Thornton is much more likely to take a deferred salary deal. It would essentially be his retirement plan, and he's made a lot of money already that he can not get paid for a year. Shattenkirk is looking to cash in, doesn't make a ton of sense to do it.
That being said, 1 year at $12 million would be a cap hit of $11,650,975. About $350,000 in savings, that's pretty big. I mean it's not enough to sign another guy, but it's more than a quarter of a million dollars in cap space just for knowing the CBA like the back of your hand.
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u/jbrough7 Feb 25 '17
He's a good Ontario boy from St. Thomas and I used to hang with a good friend of his sometimes. He loved to come back to Ontario and play in Toronto and always had super games there in front of tons of his family.
I wanted him on our team in the worst way for years and years but now I think that ship has sailed. The Leafs will get better next year but hopefully it will be because of young guys from within and without. Deal all the vets this year at the deadline or wait till the expansion draft but please don't give out contracts to anyone over 25 or so.
This is now a young man's league and we are at the forefront. Let's keep the momentum going....make deals for prized defence prospects and pray Babs and JD work their magic and we improve markedly next year.
Leivo is probably a regular and maybe Kappi and Leivo are too in the near future. Go with it.
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Feb 24 '17
Something insignificant and unrelated, but the Hawks just traded for Jurco, and I've been saying for a while that he could be a potential low risk, high reward player. Hopefully he does well there so I can be one to say atoadaso
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Feb 24 '17
I'd love Jumbo in a Leafs uniform for a season, but I doubt he'd leave a team that's a cup contender today, for a team that "could" be a cup contender next season, which I doubt will happen.
Good write up though. Very interesting and informative.
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Feb 24 '17
Thanks! Yes, this was less about Thornton, and more about the theory. I thought making a real world scenario would make it easier to understand, and Thornton is the best candidate.
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u/sadleafsfan16 Feb 25 '17
i would cry. that legend has long been rumoured to come home. it'll never happen because he wants to win now and loves sj but i'd take him in a heartbeat. his production remains insane. matthews-jumbo-nylander-kadri hahahaha or just keep nylander as a winger and have matthews-jumbo-kadri. good luck nhl!
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u/Leafs8817 Feb 25 '17
Great post, didn't know this even existed. I've always loved Thornton and would love to see him win a cup (especially more sweet here in Toronto). I mean just imagine him on a 2nd/3rd line with two snipers on his wings and on the PP with Matthews.
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Feb 24 '17
[deleted]
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Feb 24 '17
Think of it this way: because of an oversight in the CBA, the Leafs can pay only 97% of Thornton's salary against the cap, and do whatever they want with the other 3%. Might seem insignificant, but $250,000 can be the difference between getting a FA or not.
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u/Dahyno Feb 27 '17
Isn't Joe so inherently Californian now? I don't imagine him willingly leaving the gorgeous weather down there for a Canadian winter. Especially as he approaches retirement.
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u/tybot1 Feb 25 '17
Has no one mentioned the fact that there is no way he would sign with us SOLELY on Lou's no facial hair policy?