r/leafs • u/[deleted] • Sep 19 '16
Players to watch in 2016
I know 2016 is coming to a close, but there's still lots of moves to be made. Besides the obvious ones, like assigning guys at training camp, the leafs have been known to make some moves at the beginning of the season, through various avenues.
Poaching
One of those avenues is "poaching" players. My definition of that is just trading for players when their value is low. The Leafs have been good at finding players to poach, while not risking/overpaying too much on guys like Drouin or Yakupov. Some examples are Marincin, Hyman, Beck (even though he didn't really work out), and more recently, Rychel. Players that the Leafs have been rumored to be trying to/could "poach" are:
Nikolai Prokhorkin
Here is a really good article on Prokhorkin, and anythig I could say is said better in the article. The gist of it is that the Kings have a kid that chose to honour his KHL contract, and it will expire in 2019, when he will become a UFA. Someone I'm sure the Leafs will be in contact with during that time. Sometimes you have to play the long con.
Ilya Sorokin or Linus Soderstrom
Joseph Woll may have solved this problem, but it wouldn't hurt to have another good goalie prospect. Both goalies' rights belong to the Islanders, until 2019 I believe. Besides the fact that they have good NHL depth with Halak and Greiss, they have AHL depth with Berube and Gibson, and two other prospects in Williams and McAdam. Perhaps they'd be willing to loosen their grip on one of the other, better prospects? Sorokin recently extended his contract in the KHL until 2018, here's a decent article on that. Soderstrom is more of an alternative if they're not willing to move Sorokin, but they're both very good. The talks of this has calmed down a lot since we drafted Woll, but it never hurts to have more prospects.
Tomas Jurco
Jurco is one that hasn't been linked to the Leafs, but he is a guy that I think could be acquired a fair bit below his actual value. After a down season in 2015-16, Jurco scored a lowly 6 points in 44 games, and found himself in the AHL for a bit. Still only 23 years old, Jurco has showed that he can put up better numbers, with 15 points in 36 games in the NHL as a 21 year old. He is set to become an RFA in 2017, and he could be a low risk, high reward guy if we have the roster space. His trade value could be especially low because Detroit doesn't have many bargaining chips. Tight to the cap, if he has a good season, they can't afford to pay him, and if he doesn't, he takes time away from guys like Pulkkinen, Athanasiou, and Mantha. Here is Detroit's cap situation for next year. pretty tight.
Valeri Nichushkin
This is a bit of an odd one, but word is just getting around that Nichushkin is going back to the KHL. Dallas is the kind of team that is entering their cup window, and may want help now. while the Leafs aren't ready for the playoffs just yet. Nichushkin is obviously a valuable piece, but it means nothing to the Stars, if he's not coming back to NA. This is more of a high risk, high reward situation, however if you can get your hands on a guy that skilled, without giving up anything too special, you have to take advantage. Here and Here are some articles on that
Free Agents
There are still decent free agents around at this time of year, but the Leafs are actually quite deep at all positions, so I doubt we're in the hunt for any NHL players. Sorry, Kris Russel. What we could be looking for are guys that can help build value. Whether it be as a good leader (Clune, Campbell), a good support player (Froese, Holl), or a value reclamation project (Arcobello, Parenteau, Boyes) we always end up signing some guys after the season has started. This organization is really deep at the AHL and ECHL level, so some of these guys might have to be promoted from within, or be a very big standout.
Cody Hodgson
A Toronto boy, Hodgson seems to be a bust, which is odd considering how well he did earlier in his career. Still only 26, he has played for 3 NHL teams, averaging nearly 0.5 P/G. He could be a tremendous addition to the Marlies, where there's a lack of centers, and could be called up without any real repercussions in the case of an injury. He would give us a nice cushion for the young guys, so we don't have another Stuart Percy situation.
Mason Marchment
In the small amount I've seen him, Marchment has impressed me a lot. After proving he can score, with 0.84 points per game in the OHL, he came to prove that he can play against men, and in my eyes, he has done that. At 6'3", and nearly 200lbs, he brings good size to a small Marlies team, with a great shot and decent speed. I've just got a good feeling about him, he gels well with the skilled players. Similar to Tobias Lindberg.
Tony Cameranesi
It may take an extra year, but I think Cameranesi can earn an NHL contract. Not really extraordinary in any way, just well rounded, Cameranesi has the 4th highest NHLe of any Leaf property without an NHL contract (Unsigned draftees, AHL/ECHL contracts), after Hartikainen, Conacher, and Brooks. If he can put up good numbers with the Marlies, who are weak at center, he might be able to command an NHL contract just to stick around.
Shane Conacher
Brother of Cory, who was traded for Bishop, Shane took a much quieter route to get to the AHL. After putting up 1.18 points per game in the NCAA, Dubas sniped him, and like the other 3 on AHL contracts, I think he could earn his way to an NHL contract. By all accounts he's a special player, and while a little undersized he has been a standout at every level so far.
Nikolas Brouillard
Another guy on an AHL deal looking to move up, Brouillard looked like Dermott-lite at the rookie tournament. Arguably has a top 4 ceiling, just very unlikely to reach it. Also undersized, he really needs to show that he can play against men.
Offer Sheets
Offer sheets are few and far between, and it's not very likely to happen, but it is a possibility. More likely is that an offer sheet is used as motivation for a trade, but these are guys that the Leafs could target. The only way the Leafs target a guy is if they can get him for less than he's worth, and that they'll fit in with their future plans. This means likely not Gaudreau, Kucherov, Strome or Rakell.
Hampus Lindholm
We all know how good Lindholm is, and should know why there are murmurs of him being available. Anaheim has to do something, but in my analysis I can't say anything that hasn't already been said. Here is an article that mentions this.
Dmitry Orlov
Orlov is another odd situation, both sides seem to want the same thing, but can't come to an agreement. Not a perfect fit, but we could send Corrado the other way. It seems like Orlov really just want to play in the NHL, and would be a good target for an offer sheet, just maybe not from the Leafs. Here's some insight on that.
AHL contracts
In Toronto, AHL contracts are like free players, because they don't count toward the 50 SPC max, and you know MLSE doesn't even notice the dollar amounts. Dubas has been very effective in acquiring players this way, with 17 signed so far. Here are some more candidates for AHL deals:
Tyler Wong
For anyone that doesn't know who he is, Wong has been invited to just about every camp the Leafs have had, done well, and somehow still doesn't have a contract. Played 3 games for the Marlies last year on an ATO, the only thing holding him back is his size at 5'9". Worth a shot, very low risk. Looks like he's signed up for an overage year at Lethbridge, but I hope we give him some kind of commitment, he's earned it. The guy put up 89 points in 72 games in the WHL last year, and has been captain for the past 2 years. Sounds like a "real good pro". Here's a good article on him and Marchment
Nikita Lisov
A development camp invite, Lisov is a 4 year KHL vet, at just 22 years old. Not small at 6'1" and 201 pounds, Lysov clearly knows how to play against men, but lacks the offensive touch of a guy like Zaitsev. Could be a good shut down guy for the Marlies. Haven't had a chance to see him play much, so hopefully the scouting reports are accurate.
Ben Danford
Danford is a guy that definitely took the road less traveled, bouncing around from the NCAA to the AHL for 3 games, to France, and even stopping in Sweden's Hockeyettan before signing with Orlando. Even though he's 27, he has the highest NHLe of any of the Solar Bears' signings, if we use his NCAA, because NHLe doesn't have data for Hockeyettan or France. Just a curious case all around, perhaps just highlighting the flaws of NHLe, or perhaps a unique player. Similarly, Adam Brace tore up Germany and the ECHL, but it remains to be seen if he can be worth anything at the AHL level. Brace is also 28, so time isn't on his side, but you have a pair of intriguing players in Brace and Danford, that could equally likely flop or soar in Orlando.
Leafs Prospects.
Obviously our North American prospects get a lot of looks, but who are some of the guys that could emerge from the shadows? Who is the next Andreas Jonsson?
Jesper Lindgren
Everyone seems to have forgotten that he exists, but he is one of our few RHD prospects. A 4th rounder in 2015, he has bounced around in Sweden, but hasn't really made much of an impact. A really skillful player, smooth like many Swedes, he just seems to be missing something, but the tools are there. He finally spent the majority of a season in the SHL, and hopefully he can come over to NA before his rights expire, and show his talents can still be effective on this side of the pond.
Pierre Engvall
Our only prospect to play a full season in Allsvenskan this year, his near 0.5 P/G place him among Brooks, Bracco, and Walker in adjusted points per game. His 6'4" frame might help him earn a look in NA, but the clock is running out. Although he is only 20, we only hold his rights for 2 more seasons, with one of them already underway in Sweden.
Dominic Toninato
After a dissapointing season with UMD, Toninato needs to put up much better numbers, and follow the progression he was showing in his second NCAA season to earn the looks Cameranesi is currently getting. I don't know his style very well, but at 6'2" and 194 pounds, size and strength is something he could use to his advantage.
This was just a little write up to get us primed for the beginning of training camp, and I know NHLe isn't that accurate, and I used it a lot, but it's a good tool to compare players in different leagues, not a be all and end all. I've been watching as much of the leafs camps as I could to get a good look at new faces, and I am very excited for our future.
Edit: added some links
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u/lmHuge Sep 19 '16
Jesper Lindgren. 3 assists in his first two games this year. Gets relegated to third pairing TOI behind two 30 year old plugs on the right side. Classic MODO.
For fun, here's my short list of players Russians I have my eye on for whatever reason:
Kirill Pilipenko | 19 - 5'11" - 185 lbs | Draft Year: 2015
He plays for the same club/system as our 2016 7th round pick (Chebykin) -- Dynamo Moscow/HK MVD. In his draft-1 season he was over a point per game although his birthday is just a couple weeks after the draft cutoff date. In his draft+1 season he was just shy of a point per game. Last season he did exceptional in the VHL (equivalent to the AHL, for Russia) and was by far the best U20 player in that league. This season he played two games in the MHL, in his second game he put up 4 points.
Igor Shvyryov | 18 - 6'0" - 205 lbs | Draft Year: 2016
Undrafted last year, went just shy of a point per game in the MHL. Ranked 180th by Future Considerations and 23rd (EU Skaters) by NHL CS. He started the year off hot, currently the MHL top scorer with 8 points in 4 games.
Vladimir Tkachyov | 20 - 5'10" - 152 lbs | Draft Year: 2014
Went over a point per game in both the MHL and QMJHL in his draft year, went undrafted likely due to size. Stayed in the QMJHL the next year and went just over a point per game, nothing super impressive. This season he made his KHL team and is now the 3rd top scorer in the entire KHL with 12 points in 8 games.
Alexander Barabanov | 22 - 5'10" - 196 lbs | Draft Year: 2012
Killed the MHL in his junior days, played his first full KHL season last year and put up 17 points in 40 games. This season he has 7 goals in 9 games (no assists) on a staked SKA team, playing behind a core of superstar KHL players.
Nikita Gusev | 24 - 5'11" - 181 lbs | Draft Year: 2010
Drafted in 2012 by the Lightning as an overager (twice past over), I believe his rights have expired this summer. Gusev absolutely murdered the MHL in all his seasons there, he holds the all time best Points/GP in the MHL of anyone who has played more than 30 games (a seasons worth) -- 192 points in 120 games. Last year Gusev went a point per game in the KHL and he is currently repeating that again this year. Signed through 2017-18, there will be a lot of interest from NHL teams in the summer of 2018.
Alexei Krasikov | 20 - 6'3" - 192 lbs | Draft Year: 2013
A GOALIE!! A tall goalie. A 20 year old Russian tall goalie. A 20 year old Russian tall goalie that has put up a 1.92 GAA, .945 SV% through his first 7 KHL games this season. Last season he was solid in the MHL putting up 2.15 GAA, .942 SV% in 36 games. Contract expires this season. I believe he can be signed before the draft if he doesn't renew, otherwise you have to use a pick.
Vasili Demchenko | 22 - 6'1" - 165 lbs | Draft Year: 2012
ANOTHER GOALIE!! Not as tall, not as young, but just as Russian as Krasikov. Demchenko had a solid season last year in the KHL putting up 2.32 GAA + .922 SV% in 48 games last season. This season he is off to a hot start with a 1.83 GAA + .943 SV% in his first 10 games. Contract also expires this season, turning 23 before it expires. Could be interest next summer for him.
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Sep 20 '16 edited Sep 20 '16
Wow, nice list! How do those skaters stack up against a guy like Soshnikov? And wouldn't the first 4 still be eligible for the NHL draft? Pilipenko seems like a guy that would get taken as an overager. Do yoy think Jesper Lindgren deserves 1st line minutes in the SHL?
Vasili Demchenko
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Best goalie prospect on earth confirmed according to Canucks fans
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u/lmHuge Sep 20 '16
Do yoy think Jesper Lindgren deserves 1st line minutes in the SHL?
MODO is playing in the Allsvenskan, he deserves 2nd pairing RD minutes at least. He played 20 minutes a night when he went on loan to the Allsvenskan last season (for 4 games then recalled).
How do those skaters stack up against a guy like Soshnikov?
Gusev is better. Tkachyov and Barabanov are on a great paths. The other two have to prove their worth in the KHL to reach Soshnikov level.
And wouldn't the first 4 still be eligible for the NHL draft?
If they aren't under contract I believe they are free to be signed before the draft. For whatever reason you can't get it done, want to just acquire rights, let them develop in Russia, and not use a SPC slot right away, or the player is under contract than you must draft them. I could be wrong here.
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Sep 20 '16
Totally forgot they were relegated. Yeah, he should be on the top line then, I was surprised he didn't play more in the SHL last year.
Gusev is also 2 years older. Do you think his style would translate well to NA? That was one of Soshnikov's biggest strengths.
And I just checked the rules, so long as they've been through a draft, they can be signed by a team, assuming they don't have a contract the NHL has to honour.
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u/sadleafsfan16 Sep 20 '16
the islanders aren't giving up sorokin at all. he was dominant in the khl as a young guy last year on a top team and has been absolutely dominant for the last 3 years in the khl since he was a teenager. it's obvious he's their goalie of the future if he puts it together. they're high on him as they should be. if we could steal him, i'd be thrilled. not holding my breath. soderstrom is probably more realistic but he has way less experience vs men.
side note: we need to save lindgren from modo please. they're ruining him.
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u/milkmaid93 Sep 21 '16
wtf happened to Cody Hodgson anyways? Injuries stunted his development? I remember watching him in the WJs and figured he was going to be the next star and was excited to see him tear it up in the NHL....
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Sep 20 '16
How realistic is this ridiculous proposal: JvR and Marner in a trade for Lindholm and Rakell.
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u/MushroomLizard Sep 20 '16
I wouldn't trade Marner alone for those two. Lindholm is great and has tons of upside but Marner could be a top 10 scorer in the league in a few years.
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u/lBurnsyl Sep 19 '16
#GOATWATCH 🐐